Did UCLA underachieve? The facts speak volumes
Last week, I touched on UCLA’s performance under Jim Mora in a column that attempted to quantify the relationship between victories and draft picks: Which coaches have done more with less, and which have done less with more?
It was evident the Bruins were on the less-with-more side of the ledger. But just how much less with how much more wasn’t fully clear until I took a deeper dive into the topic.
At the conclusion of my research, I had reason to wonder: Did the Bruins squander talent on an epic scale during the Josh Rosen era, and particularly in his final season?
Let’s
backtrack a moment before we plunge into the facts.
I began the process by establishing the framework: Only by inspecting the talent at both ends of the pipeline (incoming and outgoing) over the course of several years could any conclusions be drawn.
So I gathered data on five years of incoming talent, UCLA's 2013-17 recruiting classes, and five years of outgoing talent, UCLA's 2014-18 draft picks. Then I compared the Bruins' victory totals to comparable schools across the country.
* The Bruins are one of 12 programs to have all five
recruiting class rank in the top 20 nationally, according to the 247sports ratings.
Of those 12, only five have produced more draft picks than UCLA: Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, Clemson and Florida State.
That’s right: Judged by recruiting analysts and NFL general managers, the Bruins have been in rarefied air when it comes to raw talent.
And yet, the on-field performance craters in comparison with like programs.
• Let’s remove Alabama from the discussion, because it has operated on a different level for a decade.
The other four programs ahead of
UCLA in total draft picks during our timeframe (Ohio State, Clemson, LSU and Florida State) have averaged 10.7 wins per season for the past three years.
The four programs directly behind UCLA in total draft picks (USC, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Auburn) have averaged 9.3 wins per season over the past three years.
UCLA has averaged six wins in that same span.
* To that evidence, add the Josh Rosen factor: The Bruins underperformed despite possessing one of the top quarterbacks in the country.
In the past five drafts, 16 quarterbacks
have been selected in the first round. Those teams averaged 9.9 wins in the quarterback’s final year. The Bruins won just six last season with Rosen.
* Finally, I specifically examined the final seasons of Pac-12 quarterbacks picked in the first round of the ensuing draft.
To find a team that didn’t post a winning record in the QB's final season, you must go back decades: To Oregon, in 1986, with Chris Miller.
From 1987-2016, the conference had 17 quarterbacks picked in the first round. The majority won 10+ games
in their last year, and all but Washington’s Jake Locker won seven games in the regular season.
• The evidence grows more ominous for the Bruins when you extend the timeframe an additional year, to 2014, when they had Brett Hundley.
Over four consecutive seasons with two NFL-caliber quarterbacks and loads of surrounding talent, the Bruins never won the South division and were 17-19 in conference play.
Washington State, with a tiny fraction of UCLA’s incoming or outgoing talent, was 21-15 in that span.
Now, before rendering final judgment, we should
acknowledge that Rosen missed two games this season and the second half of 2016.
Without him, the Bruins were 1-7 (most of the losses were blowouts).
Let’s say he plays, and they’re 5-3 instead of 1-7. That only increases the three-year win total by four games, to an average of 7.3 victories per season — still far behind the averages of teams with comparable recruiting classes and draft totals.
I’d also argue that the reason the Bruins struggled without Rosen was the same reason they struggled at times with
him: They couldn’t run the ball effectively or stop the run (especially in 2017), and those deficiencies, folks, are on the coaching staff.
For all the facts and stats, let’s not lose sight of the basics: Given the incoming and outgoing talent and the performance of comparable programs, the Bruins should have won far more games than they did in recent years.
They didn’t merely underperform. It appears they squandered talent on an historical scale. -- Jon Wilner.
Hot off the Hotline
• A special edition of the stock report assesses the results of the NFL Draft, with a heavy lean to Pac-12 developments. What happened to Hercules Mata’afa? Is Colorado DB U? How did USC’s production compare to, for instance, N.C. State's? And what should we make of the conference totals, which dipped from previous seasons?
• Meanwhile, the Hotline’s ultra-early 2019 draft projections were published Monday morning -- why let accuracy get in the way of good fun -- and seem to indicate Washington and USC have the market nearly cornered on high-end talent. (The Huskies are particularly stocked on the lines of scrimmage.) But a certain quarterback in Eugene sits atop the list.
Why we need your support: Like so many other providers
of local journalism across the country, the Hotline’s parent website, mercurynews.com, recently moved to a subscription model. A few Hotline stories will remain free each month (as will this newsletter), but for access to all content, you’ll need to subscribe. The good news for Hotline faithful: I’ve secured a discount: 12 cents per day for 12 months. Click here to subscribe. And thanks for your loyalty.
Key Dates
Because it's busy out there …
May 1-4: Pac-12 spring meetings (Scottsdale)
May 16-20: NBA Draft combine
May 30: NBA Draft withdrawal deadline
June 21: NBA Draft
(All times Pacific.)
In the news
• At the going rate, Washington State’s basketball program will have just four or five scholarship players available when November arrives. The Cougars lost another guard last week.
• Not your typical recruit: azcentral’s Doug Haller traces the journey of 7-foot-1 center Uros Plavsic from Serbia to Chattanooga to Cleveland (almost) to Tempe.
• Arizona staffer Chuck Cecil, a member of the College Football Hall of Fame, authored a fascinating opinion piece for the Daily Star on the impact of social media. His opening sentence sets the tone: “For the love of God, I am so grateful there was no social media when I was growing up.”
• Lastly: If the Hotline’s peek into the top Pac-12 draft prospects for 2019 piqued your interest, here’s a full first-round mock from Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller. He has Herbert in the top five.
Money Matters
• Washington State invested heavily in the resources necessary to play high-level football. Now the bills are coming due: The Cougars project $67 million in cumulative athletic debt by the close of FY18, according to the Spokesman-Review. Included in the report: “WSU’s earnings from a television deal with the Pac-12 Networks fell short of initial projections, adding to the debt.”
Dirty Play
(A section devoted to the college basketball corruption case.)
• Don’t think for a second that the FBI investigation is winding down. In fact, the feds have reportedly flipped an AAU coach in New England. Per Yahoo, the coach has engaged in “numerous proffer sessions with the federal prosecutors” in which he has exposed criminal activity of other coaches. This is so far from ending ...
Choice Reads
• Worthwhile two-parter from the L.A. Times on Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott, whose sons play AAU basketball, thus giving him an interesting perspective on attempts at reform. In a complementary article, Scott addressed the conference’s hurdles and was fairly honest in his assessment. Of the night kickoff contracts with ESPN and FS1: "They say, 'Hey, this is what we bargained for. You wanted more money and we wanted more night games.'"
• Not related to the Pac-12 specifically but to college sports in general — and to parenting: The website Trackingfootball examined the background of the first-round draft picks and determined the vast majority were multi-sport athletes. (Every football coach I speak to about this subject rails against sport specialization.) Thanks to D1.ticker for the alert.
Looking Ahead
What’s coming on the Pac-12 Hotline:
• The conference's spring meetings begin Tuesday in Scottsdale. We'll take a brief look at what to expect when the coaches, ADs and conference honchos get together.
• The Hotline's post-spring practice review of rosters begins this week with the quarterbacks, of course, and unanswered questions at other units.
• Should the Pac-12 adopt a policy similar to the SEC's bylaw that gives the commissioner a voice in hiring when the job candidate has committed serious NCAA violations? I asked some ADs to weigh in.
The next newsletter is scheduled for Wednesday. Like it? Please spread the word. If you don’t, or have other feedback, let me know: pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com.
