Article on USC thus far
Nick Angelich
Five stats that have defined USC’s season through four games
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LOS ANGELES — With a third of the regular season in the books, we’ve reached that time in the season where sample sizes are getting a little bigger and trends have started to define themselves.
That’s the case for USC after it finished off a 39-36 victory against Washington State last week, which improved the Trojans to 2-2 (1-1 Pac-12) and helped them avoid a daunting 0-2 start in conference play.
So, let’s take a look at the five stats that have defined USC’s 2-2 start to this season.
Third-down defense
Here’s the good. The Trojans’ defense has done well on first and second down, leaving opponents with an average third-down conversion distance of 8.2 yards, which ranks 19th among FBS programs per SportsSource Analytics.
Now, here’s the bad: Opponents are still converting 41.3 percent of third downs against USC, a total that ranks 94th nationally. It’s not like the Trojans have faced great third-down teams, either.
UNLV is tied for 96th when it comes to third-down conversions, Stanford is tied for 89th, Texas is 82nd, and Washington State is 117th. The Trojans were good against the Rebels on third down. The Cardinal converted two timely third downs to extend scoring drives, and the Longhorns and Cougars were both better than 43 percent on third down against USC.
How can it get better?
“I think one of the things that always helps you is pass rush, getting to the quarterback, especially when you’re playing coverage,” Clay Helton said. “When you can call a four-man rush scheme and they’re getting to the spot of the quarterback, putting pressure on him, hitting him, it makes it a lot easier. We’ve had some man-on-man situations where we’ve won battles, lost battles. The other night, we were playing more zone coverage, and quarterbacks were finding zones.”
There is truth to Helton’s statement. Of the Trojans’ eight sacks, only two have come on third down. The third-down sack numbers are tied for 80th in the FBS. The secondary has allowed nine completions of 15 yards or more on third, tied for the fourth-most in FBS.
No team on USC’s remaining schedule ranks among the top 25 nationally in terms of third-down conversions. But with the way the Trojans have defended on third down over the past four games, that might not be an indication of future success.
Lack of takeaways
Helton has a lofty goal.
“Our goal is always three (takeaways) a game,” Helton said.
Admirable, but at this point in the season it’s probably unrealistic, especially when the Trojans have forced only two turnovers through four games.
The two takeaways are the fewest that USC has recorded through four games in more than 20 years.
“Maybe instead of getting into the backfield and just getting a sack, (we start) going for the ball,” linebacker Porter Gustin said. “Emphasizing that, getting our hands up for tipped balls. I think that will come. … That’s something we need to do better, get our offense in good field position.”
Helton said turnovers are constantly emphasized at practice, and he’ll identify turnover-prone players to the team, but that’s yet to lead to many takeaways in games this season.
UNLV fumbled on the very first play of the season opener, so the Trojans have essentially forced one turnover in nearly four whole games. True freshman safety Talanoa Hufanga has come close to recording interceptions the past two weeks but has only come up with deflections.
Last season, USC took the ball away 25 times, which was tied for 23rd in the FBS. The Trojans’ two takeaways this season are tied for 119th nationally.
The long ball
The Trojans’ running game has been up and down. Their passing game wasn’t crisp over the first few weeks.
But if there’s one constant, it’s JT Daniels’ affinity for the deep ball. Daniels averages 7.4 yards per attempt, which is only tied for 66th nationally, but he’s connected on 13 passes of 25 yards or more, tied for 11th.
The true freshman is not shy about taking his shots. That was obvious in the season opener and has only continued in the ensuing weeks.
In the fourth quarter against UNLV, Daniels completed passes of 43, 41 and 36 yards. Against Texas, Daniels had completions of 53, 41 and 40 yards. And last Friday, Daniels connected on deep passes of 44 and 30 yards.
So while USC’s offense has been inconsistent through these first four games, Daniels’ deep passes have maintained the big-play potential. The Trojans are tied for third in the FBS with 10 plays from scrimmage of 40 yards or more.
No gains
Per SportsSource Analytics, USC has failed to gain yardage (negative plays or no gain) on 38.6 percent of its offensive plays this season.
That’s the worst rate in the Pac-12 and checks in at 120th in the FBS. The stat illustrates the lack of offensive rhythm that USC has had for a majority of this season.
Sure, the Trojans played better against Washington State, but the offense still shot itself in the foot quite often. One first-quarter possession was sunk by three consecutive negative plays. Another was cut short when Vavae Malepeai was stopped for no gain on a 3rd-and-1.
A bad snap on a second-quarter drive took USC from 1st-and-10 at the Cougars’ 37 to 2nd-and-27 at its 46, which tanked what was a promising drive.
It doesn’t help that the Trojans have allowed 29.5 tackles for loss this year, either, which ranks 108th in the FBS.
So, yes, it’s an offense that is still finding its way, but one that needs to stay ahead of the chains in order to get to where it wants to go.
Red-zone offense
USC has been about average in terms of getting to the red zone. Its 15 trips are tied for 54th, with programs like Stanford and Mississippi State.
The Trojans’ touchdown rate leaves much to be desired, though. Through four games, they’ve finished 53.3 percent of their red-zone trips with touchdowns (105th nationally).
USC had to settle for three field goals in the red zone in its season opener. Its two trips to the red zone against Stanford produced three points. At Texas, it was stopped on a 4th-and-goal from the 1.
While there have been issues in the red zone, the Trojans did show some progress there against Washington State. They scored touchdowns on four of their five trips inside the 20 against the Cougars.
USC seemed more intent on straight-ahead runs against Wazzu when it got near the goal line. On Malepeai’s first scoring run, the Trojans used two tight ends. On his second, USC utilized two tight ends and put backup center Brett Neilon at fullback.
The Trojans will need similar production in the red zone as the season progresses.