How Lula Came Back - NYT
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How Lula Came Back
Maps show where Brazil’s progressive president surged ahead to win re-election.
By Sergio Peçanha and Agnes Chang
Oct. 26, 2026TO WIN
In a dramatic reversal from the first round of voting, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil was re-elected on Sunday, besting his conservative rival and defying a right-wing wave that has swept through Latin America.
In just three weeks, Mr. Lula found more than 10 million new votes. He gained ground nearly everywhere, attracting vast new support in major cities like São Paulo and in his strongholds across the northeast, according to official results.
Election results by municipality
After a chaotic Election Day, Mr. Lula’s right-wing rival, Flávio Bolsonaro, said that he would not accept the results and called for the election to be annulled.
Mr. Bolsonaro led by two percent in the first round of voting, and few pollsters expected Mr. Lula to turn things around. Many candidates who were eliminated endorsed Mr. Bolsonaro, and analysts expected he would pick up most of their votes.
But Mr. Lula reversed what had been a conservative shift, the results show. He reestablished his dominance in small towns. He made gains in working-class suburbs around some of the country’s biggest cities. He appeared to be helped by a broad, unexpected increase in turnout.
Mr. Lula was ahead by about 3.6 percentage points, a wider margin than his victory over Mr. Bolsonaro’s father in 2022. A map of the results shows almost every part of Brazil shifted to the left since the first round of voting:
Shift in margin between first and second round
The results suggested that Mr. Lula managed to overcome weaknesses with working-class voters that gave Mr. Bolsonaro the upper hand in the first round. His administration announced a series of economic measures in recent weeks, including more cash allowances for poor families, a ban on online betting, a program to help families get out of debt, and tax amnesties for small businesses.
In the second round, Mr. Lula amassed an additional 4.6 million votes in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, compared with only 1.9 million additional votes for Mr. Bolsonaro. Nearly 40 percent of Brazil’s population lives in these three states, home to some of the country’s biggest cities.
Shift in margin in Brazil’s most populous region
Brazil’s northeast region, Mr. Lula’s birthplace and home to many of the country’s poorest residents, has long been a left-wing stronghold. This region has heavily benefited from Mr. Lula’s social assistance programs.
Shift in margin in the northeast region
Mr. Lula’s rebound in the second round followed a pivot in his campaign strategy to reconnect with low-income and working-class voters, including strong online mobilization that relied heavily on informal messaging through influencers and online communities. A WhatsApp channel called “Lula’s Army” surged from 50,000 to nearly 11 million followers after the first round.
Although the Brazilian economy grew modestly and unemployment fell over the past four years, household debt and a cost-of-living crisis left many working-class families feeling squeezed.