Great Eclipse Century, April 8, 2024
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StephenH
Mar 29, 2024, 8:41:16 PMMar 29
to Lone * Star * Randonneurs
We have a really cool event planned. Meanwhile, the forecast is being uncooperative with the effort. So make tentative plans, and if that forecast improves, be ready to come join in the fun. Or if the weather goes bad and you want to ride around in the wind and the rain while it goes freakishly dark at mid-day, this may be your opportunity for that!
The Event: The Great Ecliipse Century.
When: Monday, April 8, 2024.
Where: Start point is the Nolan River Mall, on the southeast corner of Business 67/ Henderson Street and Nolan River Road, Cleburne, Texas. Park in the northwest corner of the parking lot, nearest the intersection. Nolan RIver Mall is a strip mall, not a big-city mall. There are convenience stores next to the parking lot and across the street.
The route: https://ridewithgps.com/routes/45434883
This is a new route, recently approved. The southernmost point is a random cemetery selected simply as a spot to get off the road. I tried to make this reasonably low-traffic, but it's hard to tell what eclipse traffic will be like. Note that between mile 43 and mile 83, there are no services, so bring your Camelbak + bottles + whatever snacks you want for a 40 mile stretch with an hour of sitting-around in the middle of it.
If I'm reading the simulator right, the eclipse starts at 12:21, hits totality from 1:38 to 1:42, and finishes at 3:00 PM. With 50% coverage from 1:06 to 2:14.
So by my logic, we should be at the cemetery at Mile 53 at about 1:00, stay until 2;00-ish, which suggests a start time of 9:00 or so. We an adjust that a bit when the weather is more certain.
All riders need to be RUSA members. See the RUSA website for details.
All riders need to be Lone Star Randonneur members. See the LSR site for details. Get your form and money in to Dan prior to the ride, please don't bring that money to the ride start.
All riders need to sign a waiver. A waiver is attached. Fill it out, print it, sign it, scan it, and email to both Dan and myself. And bring the original to the ride start.
If you plan to ride "if the weather is good", go ahead and shoot that waiver in, it doesn't obligate you to anything.
Lights and reflective gear are required for riding at night or in low-light conditions, and are highly suggested for this ride, just in case. The only other eclipse I've seen never did get THAT dark, but I understand the moon is a little closer to earth on this one, the eclipse shadow is bigger, and it may be darker also.
People expressing interest so far:
Stephen
Jim Howell
Dan
Pam
Sue
As of right now, the long-range forecast shows "Cloudy with Showers" with chance of rain at 60% and winds at 10-20 mph. That's no good On the plus side, that's far enough off, that forecast could change completely before ride time, so we'll certainly hope for improvement. I'll for sure be keeping an eye on the forecast.
Note: Being a brevet, the ride is still "on" regardless of the forecast. if you're specifically out to watch the eclipse, I would recommend waiting until the day or so prior before jumping one way or the other. If you're on the ride list and decide to find bluer skies elsewhere, please let me know. (If it is bad weather, we may ALL be elsewhere!)
Here's a recording of a previous eclipse for your entertainment: https://youtu.be/5eK-EwgqjXI?si=yNVz_W60GAwCyGL7
Please contact me or Dan with any questions, and check back for updates.
Stephen H
stephen...@yahoo.com
The Event: The Great Ecliipse Century.
When: Monday, April 8, 2024.
Where: Start point is the Nolan River Mall, on the southeast corner of Business 67/ Henderson Street and Nolan River Road, Cleburne, Texas. Park in the northwest corner of the parking lot, nearest the intersection. Nolan RIver Mall is a strip mall, not a big-city mall. There are convenience stores next to the parking lot and across the street.
The route: https://ridewithgps.com/routes/45434883
This is a new route, recently approved. The southernmost point is a random cemetery selected simply as a spot to get off the road. I tried to make this reasonably low-traffic, but it's hard to tell what eclipse traffic will be like. Note that between mile 43 and mile 83, there are no services, so bring your Camelbak + bottles + whatever snacks you want for a 40 mile stretch with an hour of sitting-around in the middle of it.
If I'm reading the simulator right, the eclipse starts at 12:21, hits totality from 1:38 to 1:42, and finishes at 3:00 PM. With 50% coverage from 1:06 to 2:14.
So by my logic, we should be at the cemetery at Mile 53 at about 1:00, stay until 2;00-ish, which suggests a start time of 9:00 or so. We an adjust that a bit when the weather is more certain.
All riders need to be RUSA members. See the RUSA website for details.
All riders need to be Lone Star Randonneur members. See the LSR site for details. Get your form and money in to Dan prior to the ride, please don't bring that money to the ride start.
All riders need to sign a waiver. A waiver is attached. Fill it out, print it, sign it, scan it, and email to both Dan and myself. And bring the original to the ride start.
If you plan to ride "if the weather is good", go ahead and shoot that waiver in, it doesn't obligate you to anything.
Lights and reflective gear are required for riding at night or in low-light conditions, and are highly suggested for this ride, just in case. The only other eclipse I've seen never did get THAT dark, but I understand the moon is a little closer to earth on this one, the eclipse shadow is bigger, and it may be darker also.
People expressing interest so far:
Stephen
Jim Howell
Dan
Pam
Sue
As of right now, the long-range forecast shows "Cloudy with Showers" with chance of rain at 60% and winds at 10-20 mph. That's no good On the plus side, that's far enough off, that forecast could change completely before ride time, so we'll certainly hope for improvement. I'll for sure be keeping an eye on the forecast.
Note: Being a brevet, the ride is still "on" regardless of the forecast. if you're specifically out to watch the eclipse, I would recommend waiting until the day or so prior before jumping one way or the other. If you're on the ride list and decide to find bluer skies elsewhere, please let me know. (If it is bad weather, we may ALL be elsewhere!)
Here's a recording of a previous eclipse for your entertainment: https://youtu.be/5eK-EwgqjXI?si=yNVz_W60GAwCyGL7
Please contact me or Dan with any questions, and check back for updates.
Stephen H
stephen...@yahoo.com
StephenH
Apr 4, 2024, 9:41:20 PMApr 4
to Lone * Star * Randonneurs
Update:
Rider list, unchanged.
Weather: Forecast has been better, then worse, etc, overall, somewhat improved, but still pretty iffy for an eclipsing experience. For sure check the hourly forecast the day before and the morning of the ride.
Right now, using Weather.com, starting at the Mexico border and following the eclipse route to the northeast, I find:
Eagle Pass- Cloudy, 5% chance of rain
Kerrille- Mostly cloudy, isolated thunderstorms, 31% chance of rain
Lampasas- Cloudy skies AM, scattered showers and thunderstorms, PM, 50% chance of rain
Hillsboro (where we will be, pretty much)- Mostly cloudy early, scattered thunderstorms later in the day, 50% chance of rain
Sulphur Springs- Partly cloudy AM, scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon, 50% chance of rain (Note: "Hauling the Mail" 200k goes just north of here)
Clarksville, TX- Partly cloudy early, scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon, 40% chance of rain (Several perms in the Avery area)
Ola, AR- Intervals of clouds and sunshine, 18% chance of rain
Mountain View, AR- Intervals of clouds and sunshine, 8% chance of rain
Cape Girardeau, MO- Intervals of clouds and sunshine, 15% chance of rain
Eagle Pass- Cloudy, 5% chance of rain
Kerrille- Mostly cloudy, isolated thunderstorms, 31% chance of rain
Lampasas- Cloudy skies AM, scattered showers and thunderstorms, PM, 50% chance of rain
Hillsboro (where we will be, pretty much)- Mostly cloudy early, scattered thunderstorms later in the day, 50% chance of rain
Sulphur Springs- Partly cloudy AM, scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon, 50% chance of rain (Note: "Hauling the Mail" 200k goes just north of here)
Clarksville, TX- Partly cloudy early, scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon, 40% chance of rain (Several perms in the Avery area)
Ola, AR- Intervals of clouds and sunshine, 18% chance of rain
Mountain View, AR- Intervals of clouds and sunshine, 8% chance of rain
Cape Girardeau, MO- Intervals of clouds and sunshine, 15% chance of rain
IE, to get a "sure thing" per the current forecast, you need to head out of state, and even then, have an unknown amount of clouds to deal with. I suspect traffic may get a wee bit clogged on I-30 from other people having the same idea.
That said, we have riders planning to ride rain or shine. If it's not just pouring down rain all day, I'll be riding as well.
But hopefully, we'll have some breaks in the clouds when needed.
So more later.
Jim Howell
Apr 5, 2024, 5:30:00 PMApr 5
to StephenH, Lone * Star * Randonneurs
The national network news today said the only forecast clear areas in the path are Vermont and farther NE. Fingers crossed we get some breaks in the clouds...
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StephenH
Apr 7, 2024, 1:23:48 AMApr 7
to Lone * Star * Randonneurs
From this website: https://nso.edu/for-public/eclipse-map-2024/
I extract these results for eclipse timing at Vaughn, Texas, which is where our cemetery watching spot is:
Start 12:21 pm
Start Totality 01:38 pm
Max Eclipse 01:40 pm
End Totality 01:42 pm
End 03:01 pm
Meanwhile, the hourly forecast at Hillsboro as of midnight Saturday night:
9:00 AM- Cloudy, 9% chance of rain, wind from south at 6 mph
10:00 AM- Cloudy, 16% chance, wind from south at 8 mph
11:00 AM- Mostly cloudy, 16% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 8 mph
12:00 AM- Mostly cloudy, 11% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 10 mph
1:00 PM- Mostly cloudy, 24% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 11 mph
2:00 PM- Scattered thunderstorms, 39% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 11 mph
3:00 PM- Scattered thunderstorms, 42% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 13 mph
4:00 PM- Thunderstorms, 72% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 14 mph
5:00 PM- Thunderstorms, 77% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 15 mph
6:00 PM- Thunderstorms, 75% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 14 mph
7:00 PM- Thunderstorms, 69% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 13 mph
Crucial info- at 1:00 PM, they show cloud cover at 72%.
At 2:00 PM, it is 63%.
At 3:00 PM, it is 65%.
So there is still some potential of seeing an eclipse in there.
I will be rechecking these forecasts tomorrow night and early Monday morning as well.
The forecast is a little better in Cleburne than in Hillsboro, so riding north will slightly improve things.
Riding into light-to-medium headwinds, I figure 12 mph rolling average, plus 30 minutes for a control stop at Hillsboro, gives us almost 5 hours to make the cemetery.
My suggestion is to set start time at 8:30, arrive at the cemetery by 1:30, leave by 2:00. If we make better time, hang around down there.
Then we have 6 hours to ride back with tailwind and potential rain.
I'm open to alternate opinions on this.
I'll likely be riding my touring bike for this ride.
There will obviously be "some" extra eclipse traffic. Will every freeway be clogged? Will it be business as usual? I don't know. I would suggest to try to get to the ride start a good bit earlier than normal though, just in case traffic is bad.
So more tomorrow.
I extract these results for eclipse timing at Vaughn, Texas, which is where our cemetery watching spot is:
Start 12:21 pm
Start Totality 01:38 pm
Max Eclipse 01:40 pm
End Totality 01:42 pm
End 03:01 pm
Meanwhile, the hourly forecast at Hillsboro as of midnight Saturday night:
9:00 AM- Cloudy, 9% chance of rain, wind from south at 6 mph
10:00 AM- Cloudy, 16% chance, wind from south at 8 mph
11:00 AM- Mostly cloudy, 16% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 8 mph
12:00 AM- Mostly cloudy, 11% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 10 mph
1:00 PM- Mostly cloudy, 24% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 11 mph
2:00 PM- Scattered thunderstorms, 39% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 11 mph
3:00 PM- Scattered thunderstorms, 42% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 13 mph
4:00 PM- Thunderstorms, 72% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 14 mph
5:00 PM- Thunderstorms, 77% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 15 mph
6:00 PM- Thunderstorms, 75% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 14 mph
7:00 PM- Thunderstorms, 69% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 13 mph
Crucial info- at 1:00 PM, they show cloud cover at 72%.
At 2:00 PM, it is 63%.
At 3:00 PM, it is 65%.
So there is still some potential of seeing an eclipse in there.
I will be rechecking these forecasts tomorrow night and early Monday morning as well.
The forecast is a little better in Cleburne than in Hillsboro, so riding north will slightly improve things.
Riding into light-to-medium headwinds, I figure 12 mph rolling average, plus 30 minutes for a control stop at Hillsboro, gives us almost 5 hours to make the cemetery.
My suggestion is to set start time at 8:30, arrive at the cemetery by 1:30, leave by 2:00. If we make better time, hang around down there.
Then we have 6 hours to ride back with tailwind and potential rain.
I'm open to alternate opinions on this.
I'll likely be riding my touring bike for this ride.
There will obviously be "some" extra eclipse traffic. Will every freeway be clogged? Will it be business as usual? I don't know. I would suggest to try to get to the ride start a good bit earlier than normal though, just in case traffic is bad.
So more tomorrow.
StephenH
Apr 7, 2024, 9:53:44 PMApr 7
to Lone * Star * Randonneurs
Update: Ride start will be at 8:30 AM.
Updated weather as of 8:50 PM Sunday night, from weather.com for Hillsboro:
9:00 AM- Cloudy, 8% chance of rain, wind from south at 5 mph
10:00 AM- Cloudy, 8% chance, wind from south at 7 mph
11:00 AM- Cloudy, 7% chance of rain, wind from south at 8 mph
12:00 AM- Cloudy, 8% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 8 mph
1:00 PM- Mostly cloudy, 17% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 9 mph
2:00 PM- Mostly cloudy, 24% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 9 mph
3:00 PM- Isolated thunderstorms, 32% chance of rain, wind from SE at 11 mph
4:00 PM- Scattered thunderstorms, 55% chance of rain, wind from SS at 12 mph
5:00 PM- Thunderstorms, 80% chance of rain, wind from SE at 14 mph
6:00 PM- Thunderstorms, 95% chance of rain, wind from SE at 16 mph
7:00 PM- Thunderstorms, 83% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 15 mph
Crucial info- at 1:00 PM, they show cloud cover at 74%.
At 2:00 PM, it is 74%.
At 3:00 PM, it is 79%.
This is slightly improved before 5:00, slightly worse after 5:00.
Updated weather as of 8:50 PM Sunday night, from weather.com for Hillsboro:
9:00 AM- Cloudy, 8% chance of rain, wind from south at 5 mph
10:00 AM- Cloudy, 8% chance, wind from south at 7 mph
11:00 AM- Cloudy, 7% chance of rain, wind from south at 8 mph
12:00 AM- Cloudy, 8% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 8 mph
1:00 PM- Mostly cloudy, 17% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 9 mph
2:00 PM- Mostly cloudy, 24% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 9 mph
3:00 PM- Isolated thunderstorms, 32% chance of rain, wind from SE at 11 mph
4:00 PM- Scattered thunderstorms, 55% chance of rain, wind from SS at 12 mph
5:00 PM- Thunderstorms, 80% chance of rain, wind from SE at 14 mph
6:00 PM- Thunderstorms, 95% chance of rain, wind from SE at 16 mph
7:00 PM- Thunderstorms, 83% chance of rain, wind from SSE at 15 mph
Crucial info- at 1:00 PM, they show cloud cover at 74%.
At 2:00 PM, it is 74%.
At 3:00 PM, it is 79%.
This is slightly improved before 5:00, slightly worse after 5:00.
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