Tension between hope and despair: Violent vs non-violent revolution in South Sudan (Part 2)

[Elisabeth Janaina]

Tension between hope and despair: Violent vs non-violent revolution in
South Sudan (Part 2)
Posted: September 24, 2017 by PaanLuel Wël in Columnists, Commentary,
Contributing Writers, Junub Sudan, Opinion Articles, Opinion Writers,
Thiik Mou Giir
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By Thiik Mou Giir, Melbourne, Australia
Social media warriors

Social media warriors

September 24, 2017 (SSB) — Since the outbreak of violence between the
soldiers loyal to the government and the soldiers loyal to the
opposition in Juba and as well as in other parts of South Sudan in
2013 and which have continued up to this very day, the consequences
are now well known. It is very important that we should reflect and
learn from something that has touched every South Sudanese negatively.
In this piece of work, I have examined what violent and non-violent
revolutions look like.

This part is that last part and it deals with Non-Violent Revolution.
You may agree with me in saying that non-violent revolution is the
lesser evil than violent revolution. The best and the safest way of
changing a regime is through a democratic means – an election.
Anyway, aware that you may want to participate in the discussion, I
have assigned a number to each grid for referencing purposes.

Factor Advantage Disadvantage
(1)



The behaviour of a regime leadership during a non-violent revolt.
(2)



· The regime could support a democratic process for a regime
change through which negotiation, dialogue, debating, and discussion
will be the norm;

· They may come up with projects such as building more
schools, hospitals, bridges and so on and so forth, to prove that the
non-violent revolutionaries have nothing to complain about and fight
for.


(3)

· Who will be able to tell whether the next regime, set up by
non-revolutionaries, would be any better than the previous one?

· May exhibit a muted dictatorship
(4)







The revolutionary leaders, dissents, and the masses


(5)



· They may become embolden by the support they receive from the masses;

· They may establish solidarity with members of different
tribes through the political parties they will form;

· They will strive to gain the trust and the confidence of the
majority of people regardless of their tribal backgrounds;

· The revolutionary leaders and dissents will focus on
pointing out the shortcomings of the regime’s and on finding
strategies that will convince the people that the regime change is to
their own interest.
(6)



· Some revolutionaries, dissents and ordinary people may be
tortured, detained and even killed;

· They may be forced by the security agencies to flee the country;
(7)



The importance of non-violent revolution in times of need


(8)



· Non-violence promotes and embraces multi-tribalism which
could eventually lead to the formation of a new national identity;

· Tribal and cultural frictions are minimized;

· It sets a positive precedent for the next generation; that,
whenever people feel there will be a need to revolt, non-violence is
lesser of two evils that they would think of;


(9)







Nil
(10)



States and counties during a time of non-violent revolution


(11)



Those areas will still maintain some degree of stability:



· Government institutions will continue to function;

· Schools will continue to operate;




(12)



· Because the government’s incompetence, people will
experience economic hardship;

· Crime rate will rise;

· Foreigners will find the situation a reason to have somewhat
freehand to almost everything
(13)



Communities/tribes affected
(14)



· People will stand up together to claim their human rights;

· People in their areas will learn other ways of generating
some income and not to solely rely on the failing government;

· The masses will identify the parties and the policies of
parties that will serve them well
(15)



· The majority of people will become depressed
(16)



Diasporas affected during non-violent revolution
(17)



· Some people in diaspora may try to assist by contributing ideas


(18)



· Some South Sudanese in diaspora may give up intervening in
South Sudanese politics and affairs and will just focus on their own
issues in the countries they will try to settle in.
(19)



Revolutionary leaders, heroes and heroines


(20)



· People will look up to them for guidance;

· Some of them will be propelled to prominence at which time
they will be considered as national leaders;

· What they will stand for may inspire the next generations positively
(21)



· Some of them will be jailed, tortured and even killed for
what they will stand for;

· Some of them may flee the country for their safety.
(22)



Families affected during non-violent revolution


(23)



· Members of the families will learn to cope with the
situation as much as long as it will take;
(24)



· Members may suffer hardship and depression.
(25)



Children’s schooling affected during non-violent revolution
(26)



· University students and teenagers will learn the root causes
of the non-violent revolution and those causes could form the topics
that they will discuss in their classrooms and debate in school yards;

· University students and teenagers will be involved in the
non-violent activities such as taking part in demonstration in
streets;

· Children, having learned valuable lessons during the
non-violent struggle, may emerge from it more intelligent, more
confident, and more hopeful.


(27)

· Senior children may be involved in activities that may turn
violent such as when they will participate in demonstrations during
which time they may cause damages to properties;

· School may temporarily be closed down;

· Children could be jailed and beaten up and killed;

· The strain in the economy may cause children to go to school
without sufficient food and that may hamper their learning abilities.
(28)



Civilians affected during non-violent revolution




(29)



· The situation may force the civilians to struggle and learn
lessons from their non-violent struggle;

· The bond and loyalty between them and their revolutionary
leaders will become stronger.


(30)



· The civilians will suffer hardship and depression;

· As a result of poor economy, corruption and mismanagement,
the majority of people will lack basic needs of life.
(31)



Lifestyle


(32)



Nil


(33)

· The desired lifestyle could not be attainable under those
unstable conditions;

· Some people could take advantage of the situation and create
an environment where the poor will become poorer and the rich will
become richer.
(34)



The economy/resources of South Sudan


(35)



· People will learn to use the limited resources they have very well
(36)

· The economy will be weakened;

· The political turmoil will keep investors out of the country
(37)



Development of the country


(38)



Nil
(39)



· Slow
(40)



Human development


(41)



· People will learn new life skills in order to cope with the situation;


(42)



· Jobs will become scarce
(43)



Sub-communities’ disputes and fights
(44)



· The government will do their best in order to stop communal
violence and restore peace so that the revolutionaries would not take
advantage of criticizing them for their failure;

· The non-violent revolutionaries, on the other hand, will try
to point out some areas where the government is weak.


(45)









Nil
(46)



Corruption


(47)



· The government will try to eliminate corruption in order to
show that they are doing the right thing;

· The revolutionaries will try to prove to the public that the
government has failed because the government itself is corrupt.


(48)



· Corruption becomes widespread and the government will no
longer be able to do anything about it
(49)



Non-South Sudanese interference in the affairs of South Sudan during
non-violent revolution
(50)



· Members of the international community will come into the
country for the purpose of showing human solidarity with those who are
in need;

· They will be considered neutral; therefore, trustworthy
(51)





Nil


(52)



Social media apparatus
· Peace makers;

· Conscience raisers;
(53)



In diaspora

While the majority of the users are not on the ground themselves, they
will effectively:



· Attempt to build positive bridges between people;

· Attempt to make peace;

· Attempt to present alternative visions to the South Sudanese people;



In South Sudan

· The professional journalists and not pseudo-freedom
fighters, interceptors, saboteurs, liars, propagandists, and
rumourmongers, will play a positive role in supporting the non-violent
revolutionaries.
(54)



Nil
· The hatred generated by a violent revolution is no longer
there to make the following activism necessary:

· Freedom fighters;

· Interceptors;

· Saboteurs;

· Liars (propaganda);

· Rumourmongers
(55)



The time period it takes to overthrow the government
(56)



· Advantage, if short and the majority of people like the
change they had been fighting for.
(57)



· Disadvantage, if long and the majority of people don’t like
the change they had been fighting for.
(58)



After defeating the government
(59)



· Advantage, if the non-violent revolutionaries will take over
the power and the majority of people will be able to see that the
revolutionaries are working very hard in order to bring the objectives
of the revolution to fruition.
(60)

· Disadvantage, if they fail to win the hearts and the minds
of the large section of the society;

· Disadvantage, if the non-violent revolutionaries will not be
any better than those who preceded them
(61)



After defeating the non-violent revolutionaries
(62)



· Advantage, if they will prove to the public that the failed
revolutionaries were actually not worth fighting for.
(63)



· Disadvantage, if the political differences will still keep
the nation polarized and dysfunctional.
(64)



Comparing the sum of the losses during the non-violent struggle period
with the sum of gains throughout the period the revolutionaries will
be in power.


(65)



· Advantage, if the revolutionaries will be in power and they
will be working hard to achieve their objectives and goals and make
the nation better than what it was before they took over;

· Advantage, if they will be able to pull the country together as one;

· Advantage, if they will be able to contribute to building
and strengthening the nations’ institutions
(66)



· Disadvantage, if they will come out with policies that will
continue to polarize South Sudanese along tribal lines
(67)



Setting a precedent for future governments
(68)



· Advantage, if it will be the last resort after when
democratic procedures of having a regime change fail.
(69)



· Disadvantage, if people resort to it before democratic
procedures are followed and exhausted.

The Tension between Hope and Despair

Here is a Jieng’s proverb:

“Don’t warn a person who is traveling a road that leads to danger.
The person wouldn’t listen to you. Rather, warn him when he is
returning, then he will surely listen to you.”

I wanted, in the past, to apply that wisdom to our situation, but then
I thought, “What if the actions – social media propaganda – of some of
us are going to cause the death and the suffering of our people in
South Sudan? What if the divisions between our sub-communities here
in Melbourne and our sub-communities in other parts of the world are
going to reach a level that would permanently paralyze us and stop us
from laying a strong foundation of our unity? What if the person who
is traveling this road isn’t going to come back?”

I, therefore, decided to keep on warning my fellow South Sudanese
saying, “Be careful what you say and write!” and, “Here is a light;
let us use it to find a better road.” The light I meant is Construct
Our New Identity (CONI). Then, the person looks at me with eyes that
made me feel as if I’m an old, rugged prophet who is saying things
that are irrelevant to our present day (night) situation. He keeps
traveling the same road, disappearing into smoke and leaving me sad
and speechless!

Thiik Mou Giir, Bachelor Degree in Education from the University of
Alexandria, Egypt; Post Graduate Diploma, from Monash University,
Melbourne, Australia. He can be reached via his email contact:
thiik...@hotmail.com

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