The shifting centres of gravity of JCE regime.

[Elisabeth Janaina]

Home | Comment & Analysis Monday 25 September 2017
The shifting centres of gravity of JCE regime.

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By Oyet Nathaniel Pierino

Did they know that it was going to be protracted and catastrophic?
From the war song that was sung in nyakuron Saturday 14th, December
2013 to the attempted disarmament of Nuer section of presidential
guards and split in the SPLM party and organized forces; the influence
and political dominions of the JCE has shrunk to record low. The
regional and international community are sending one signal and
message; "state failure."

All the JCE political and military calculations have failed, 4 years
on; 2013; 2017. Where are the brands of the red army-Dutkubeny,
Gelweng, and Mathiang Anyor, were they not shattered? Investigative
media put the death toll at over 100,000. Why did they have to die to
defend power? Instead of going to school and having a productive
living.

The hallmark of it all was the Julio 8th, 2016; it came closer to the
noses! over 1370 guards of the president Kiir perished in single
battle in J1. I mean close relatives of president Kiir and First Lady
Ayen are no more.

The shocking scene of streets of Mading Awiel littered with faces of
starving widows and orphans; they are glaring at Malong Awan and his
rich sons who murdered their breadwinners, little did they know that
power kills whoever holds it unfairly. Whoever unfairly retains power
should be prepared to kill and also be killed, it’s the political cult
of Bedel Bokassa, Iddi Amin, Basar Al Assad, Saddam Hussein, Sihad
Bari, Muhamar Gaddafi etc. President Kiir is also trying his fortunes.
Yes he has surrounded himself by speculators. Those who look for
fortunes and quick wealth. Some were until recently with Dr Riek
Machar after seeing he was signing peace agreement in which government
jobs would be available. But when it broke loose in J1 on the 8th
July; they changed coats; "I am for peace, I am for South Sudan"
Actually it’s to beg for bread and wine.

But the ruling rek sections in warrap; Awan, Nyok, twic, Aguok and
apuk are killing themselves over the succession questions back home
but in Juba, they say "hakuma thouk..hakuma thouk... kong Koch". Every
time there is succession discussion it’s taken home rather than to the
SPLM party or JCE meetings.

Well Awiel has finally realized that they have been cheated, used and
wasted. They had thought it was about Jieng power. But it’s not, it’s
the rek dynasty, the rule of Mayardiit family and lineage.

Now Awiel has become too wise, actually, they have been the bedrock
and beast of burden of the regime until they (Malong) were kicked out
of the equation. Awiel and bor now are are offering alternative
platform within the JCE politics. If Awiel and Bor act smart by
uprooting Salva Kiir and his friends they can offer a viable
alternative to the regime and sue for peace with the rest of South
Sudanese. This will make sense. Meanwhile, Salva Kiir has gone to
lakes states to fish Agar, Gok, Cueibet, Aliab, Yirol to substitute
Awiel; to add onto apadang and ngok.

In Upper Nile region; the Bor sections are also unilaterally
harbouring dangerous ambitions to the rek regime. The sects of Hol,
Twic, Athoc, and nyarweng of bor have forgotten their north-South bor
differences and are trying to collect the shoes of late John Garang by
rallying support behind Majak Aguot and Rebecca Nyandeng for
presidential materials. This is a taboo for the rek sections who say,
the Bor again!!

At the moment, senior political and military elites are sitting on
young Elegant intelligent intellectuals from bor the likes of Kuol
manyang, Makuei lueth, Malual Ayom and their contemporaries as Salva
Kiir and his machinery eliminate potential future competitors to their
successors. why and who killed Makuac, Isaiah Abraham, two months ago
another young Bor intellectual was murdered in Juba. This has become a
pattern.

So Kiir is desperately plotting his political calculus again; the rek
family+agar+apadang+Taban Deng in Upper Nile+ collection of isolated
Equatoria political and military elites to hold his power together.
This will never work.

The author can be reached at oyetnat...@gmail.com