Thinking outside the Box: Fragmentation of South Sudan is Becoming a Possible Reality

[Elisabeth Janaina]

Thinking outside the Box: Fragmentation of South Sudan is Becoming a
Possible Reality


Feb. 22 Politics no comments
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By Joseph Oreste Odhok, South Sudan, FEB/22/2017, SSN;

The civil war in South Sudan is poised to become a proxy regional war
as some countries in the region begin to flex their muscles in
furtherance to varied interests. Of late the regional bloc, IGAD
witnessed intensive shuttle diplomacy from within and surprisingly
from outside the bloc.

President Kiir visited Cairo on invitation of his Egyptian counterpart
Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi who later returned the visit to Juba. President
Al-Sisi made similar visits to both Uganda and Kenya on Dec 18th 2016
and Feb 18th 2017 respectively. A move seen as lobbying for support
against construction of the Ethiopian “Renaissance Dam”, which Egypt
regards as a threat to her national security.

In their bilateral talks at the State house in Entebbe, President
Museveni welcomed Egypt’s intention to contribute troops for
protection force in South Sudan. He also asked Al-Sisi to discourage
the UNSC policy on imposing sanctions on South Sudan and further
assured the Egyptian President that his government would work hard and
take strict measures to ensure conservation of the River Nile so that
Egypt would not be affected.

This meeting has its political overtones on South Sudan conflict and
marks the beginning of a downward spiral to the fragmentation of the
country, and a threat to regional peace and international security.

According to unverified information, South Sudan and Egypt made a deal
that would make it possible to disrupt and frustrate the work on the
Ethiopian “Renaissance Dam” project. This secret deal entails allowing
the Ethiopian rebels to operate within South Sudanese territories, in
return to providing air cover to the SPLA by Egyptian air force.

The ongoing Arial bombardments of civilian population settlements
around Malakal and other areas of the “Shilluk Kingdom” on the West
bank of the Nile seems to substantiate the claim.

Literally, the Shilluk kingdom is now empty after all the civil
population — including the IDPs of Wau Shilluk— fled their villages
for safety to the neighboring Sudan.

Mr. David Shearer, the head of UNMISS in South Sudan said he was
denied access to Wau by the government and that he did not know the
fate of the civilians sheltering there whom he thought fled towards
Kodok.

President Kiir is well known for not keeping his promises. In fact, he
is a pathological or a plausible liar. For how could you talk of
conducting a dialogue and at the same time carry out military
campaigns against those who’re supposed to take part in that same
dialogue?

While this latest position of the regional bloc coupled with Egyptian
meddling in the country’s affairs has emboldened President Kiir to
deflect the peace agreement and openly declare before the parliament
that he would neutralize the armed opposition wherever they are,
Ethiopia and Sudan on the other hand, I believe, would not sit by and
watch their own peace and national security being tempered with.

In the case of Ethiopia, it has soft borders with South Sudan with by
having the same tribes on both sides of the border. These blood
relation and ethnic bonds provide a sense of unity and belonging to
each other. This sense of belonging could easily come to play in times
of conflict and great turbulence such as this one.

In Equatoria, the situation could be described as catastrophic as
evidenced by the number of fleeing civilian population to Uganda and
Kenya, and the defecting officials to the Opposition. Most people in
that region are living in constant fear and under harsh living
conditions as the SS currency lost its purchasing power.

Add to this, the fear of crackdown and risk of deportation back to the
country should they opt to take refuge in Urban Areas in Kenya and
Uganda. These factors combined make the life extremely miserable for
those still in the country.

The people of Western Bahr el Gazelle, mainly the Fertit tribes, are
still sheltering in the UN protection sites and churches and in the
bushes under harsh living conditions. In a nutshell the only free
people who the president referred to as citizens of South are his
tribes-people the “Jieng.”

Sudan’s concerns would come from the deteriorating security situation
on its white Nile and South Kordufan States borders with Upper Nile
State. Also the security of her nomads and their cattle while on their
seasonal journeys for pasture and water in the area.

The Niger nomadic tribe of Flata Ombororo also visits the area in
search of pasture and water.

Nevertheless, the Sudanese oil installations in Upper Nile and Unity
States remains the most important items. The security of these
installations will ultimately determine the next move of the Sudanese
Government should the war escalate between the belligerent parties.

At present the Sudanese are working to lift the remaining US sanctions
from their country and would not want to be distracted from achieving
that goal. Though that should not be taken for granted.

This new escalation of conflict with vehement characteristics of
ethnicity which is openly advocated by a tiny tribal elite and
sanctioned by the Head of the State, made the polarization even worse,
and the demise of the country much imminent than ever before.

The recent defections of senior military and civil service officials
from the government, and their revelations are but clear testimony to
the level of frustration and despair.

The insistence of the President on going ahead with the fake “National
Dialogue” while promising to quell the rebellion by military means is
an inept way of handling of the country’s affairs and a brazen idiocy.

Unless he wanted to throw the country to the dogs as Adolf Hitler had
done before the allied forces brought him to his knees, there is no
rational reason to opt for military solution. There shall not be
decisive military victory by either side.

If Egypt, Uganda and Kenya all stand behind Kiir’s government to
advance their covetous and malicious interests, they too should know
that there are others out there who similarly covet South Sudan and
would want to enter the scramble for this dying animal.

This unfolding unfortunate situation will eventually turn the country
into a safe haven for criminals and illicit trade and by extension
provide a springboard for terrorist activities.

In conclusion, the current political development of events in South
Sudan brings me to corroborate the supposition in a report published
by Pax International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) — Scenarios for
South Sudan in 2020 — in which the author predicts the Fragmentation
of the country into many parts by October 2017.

The collapse of the government and fragmentation of the country is now
becoming a possible reality given the recent policy shift to a
military solution of the conflict, the already declared famine and the
collapsing economy.

Dr. Riek and his SPLM/A–IO should not take the blame for collapse of
peace. After all it takes two to tango.

END
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