If not today, then Never --- Lebanon Story

[Reforming Thought]

If not today, then Never – Lebanon Political Uprising - By Ali Haider

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By Ali Haider (alihai...@gmail.com) After a 34 days war which mismarred the infrastructure of a nation, the first thing that nation desires is to rebuild itself , come back on it’s feet and then resolve the issues which has led it into this state. But Lebanon is a different story altogether, Sayed Nasrallah has decided to change the government into a national unity front where all political parties have an equal say. The result of this demand is an ongoing protest, though it is peaceful but carries a big risk of getting into a civil war.   Foaud Siniora is the Sunni Prime Minister, whereas the opposition led by Sayed Nasrallah is primarily a Shia opposition supported by Sunni and Christian groups. This itself is the fuel which can spark of a Shia Sunni, or even Christian Muslim Civil war. The question is why Nasrallah took such a big risk to bring down the government in such a short period after the war crisis. Is it not wise to give some more time for things to get settled, watch the movement of Israel and its reaction to the UN resolution, then get into this mode of reforming the state?   Sayed Nasrallah has made his objectives and reasons very much explicit that this current government is an US administration backed government and is a puppet planted through the assassination of Hariri with the prime objective to disarm Hezbollah and thus make the Israel objective to eradicate Palestinian Intifadha a cakewalk. Hence the issue is not to analyze the reasons behind this peaceful uprising by Hezbollah against the current government. The reasons are very much clear over here. I would like to take this brief analysis now into two parts, one is to briefly understand the link of Siniora government to US and Israel, and second would be to answer the question about the timing of this uprising by Hezbollah.   During the Israel attack on Lebanon with Hezbollah’s resistance, there was one big dark grey area which was very intelligently veiled by media. At that time even Nasrallah could not say anything on that part because that would have taken the war into a different mode. This grey area was the non involvement of Lebanese Army into this war. The war of Israel was with Hezbollah, but the victims of this war were the Lebanese people. The entire nation was in support of Hezbollah, international community was condemning Israel for this brutal terrorism, but the Lebanese government did not allow its troops to take part in this battle. I have pointed this out as a question mark in one of my columns of that time also. The war got positioned as war of Israel with Lebanon with the aim to eradicate Hezbollah, by terrorizing the nation to take steps against Hezbollah internally.   The ruling Siniora government was passing signals to Hezbollah that for the sake of the lives of Lebanese people, Hezbollah should stop resisting and disarm themselves. Siniora was talking in the same language as US and Israel but in a diplomatic tone. This government did not extend any form of support to Hezbollah. The government which is anti Syrian government, and Siniora being a close friend of late Rafiq Hariri and now his son Saad Hariri, itself is an evidence that this a trading group of businessmen. Siniora is a west inclined businessman with several corruption cases on him already. Their motives are more oriented towards US administration. They want to see the country develop economically on the feet of West, which will benefit them personally. Hence ideally speaking such a government is a big threat to the Muslim Ummah, by their internal movements to disarm Hezbollah, the fortress of Islam against Israel today. Hence, there is no way out but to topple this government down and bring a government who has no interest towards Israel and US and considers Israel as an enemy.  This brings us to our main question, that bringing down this government is very much required and genuine, but when? Is it really sensible to do it now with a big risk of a civil war?   It is true that Nasrallah has taken a big risk of a civil war. This is the reason that he is repeatedly mentioning this in his speeches that this protest is peaceful, and even if they kill 1000 of his people, he will not take it to arms within the country. His arms are only to fight against Israel. On the other hand US and Israel are aiding with all possible means to Siniora to somehow take this protest into a civil war mode, which itself could lead to disarming of Hezbollah. The prime objective after the Lebanon war for US and Israel is to make Hezbollah inactive, mainly in weapons. They are working towards these objectives in a very sharp political manner, the movement of international forces now on Israel Lebanon border is not to prevent Israel from invading Lebanon but it is to have a check on Hezbollah. Hezbollah’s military movement will now face International force resistance on the borders, and internally it is facing a political resistance from the US backed Siniora government.   Now, under this situation we need to understand the situation of Hezbollah. Hezbollah has emerged out as a strong force after the 34 days resistance war. That war which Bush estimated as an  8 day wash off of Hezbollah, turned out to be a 34 days war with Israel getting the maximum beating on militancy, by its own people and from the international Muslim community. Hezbollah became the pride for Muslims and from being a small militancy group become a regional Militancy superpower with a strong backing of the Muslim world. This was the major advantage which Hezbollah got after the war. At this stage, when movements are under place to disarm Hezbollah and crush it gradually, Hezbollah has two options, one is not to take any action against this movement for the sake of national integrity and unity, or take a risk of civil war and topple this government. If you do not take the risk then you are giving more time for enemies to be more firm on their movements, that too when the weak link itself is your own government. This is exactly the situation of Khyber, where Prophet (s) did not wait for the Jews to get settled, start a war and then the Muslims reply to it. He took a proactive step despite of fighting continuous wars. He wanted to capitalize on the motivation of the Muslims and the impression which it has created on the minds of others.    This is exactly what Hezbollah has done. They have taken a risk of civil war, because the chance of this war is less. The civilians are also impressed by Hezbollah as a powerful force. Any civil war even if it starts would only be an emotional outburst which won’t last for long. And if Hezbollah themselves does not takes on to arms within the country, then this civil war would not pick up fire. If this uprising would not have been started now, then it would become too late at a later stage to get the same response from the people. It was necessary to capitalize on the 34 days resistance and uproot the Israeli foothold inside Lebanon. Even in the worst case a civil war does takes place, it will eventually result into toppling of the government which would be victory for Lebanon against US and Israel’s political stunts.   In any uprising for truth, there is always a demand for blood. The problem with Islamic leaders is that they are too afraid to own this blood. But Nasrallah is a follower of Khomeini, and who have all learned the Hamasi Vision from Aba Abdillah (a). Today Iraq is soaked into blood but no resistance, why? Because there is no one like Nasrallah who can mobilize the nation with a risk of legitimate bloodshed. A political leader is not a leader who cannot motivate amongst the nation the spirit of Martyrdom. Enemies like America cannot be kicked out without giving blood. Martyrs are the real nuclear weapons in such situations. Hence this risk taken by Nasrallah is very well justified, he is ready to own the blood in case something goes wrong, because the end is for sure beneficial for the entire Muslim Ummah. A national unity government coming into existence will foil all the short term plans of Israel on one side, and on the other side will boost Palestinian Intifadha support. To achieve such higher goals such risks need to be taken and this is the right time to de-scale this risk, because of the big victory shining on the shoulders of Hezbollah. In simple words, it could also be quoted as “If not today, then never”.

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