russian roulette
paladin
hat into the ring. i'd like to present my credentials so to speak. i am
a founding partner of an entity that brokers business between the
u.s.a., russia and turkey. i travel to russia and turkey every quarter
(ever since 2000). as a concessionaire, i deal with russians and turks
in both the private and public sectors. it goes without saying of
course that i am pleased take part in the russia profile discussion
group. to begin with, if i may be so bold, i have a question; what is
the general consensus opinion as to what's next in a post-putin russia?
Mac Broderick
tossed anything out there, so I thought I would use your invitation to
see if any consensus can be had on the post-Putin reality and make my
first foray into the discussion...
Obviously, the post-Putin environment will be best signified by who is
actually anointed his successor. Despite any recent inklings that
Minister of Defence/Dep. PM Ivanov has recently outjockeyed some of
the other contenders by being named head of a new military
appropriations committee outside of PM Fradkov's purview, I would
argue that at this point, who the actual successor would be is a next
to impossible operation. Russian politics is simply too unstable,
even under Putin. Though Deputy PMs Medvedev and Ivanov do seem
logical choices, I think the environment is simply too dynamic. If
anything though, Ivanov seems to have the more difficult road to
follow- military reform, especially reducing the number of schools
deemed worthy of service exemptions given, has been one issue that has
repeatedly galvanized the population.
My impression is that Putin is most concerned about popular
impressions of his reform agenda. His greatest fear is that some of
his more liberal, yet painful reforms such as reducing utility
subsidies, reforming the pension benefit system, military reform, etc.
will cause unrest. I see this as the cause of his increasing
authoritarian manner of governance. I think the fact that he has not
only picked on the Helsinki Group and other human rights NGOs, but
also the Union of Soldiers' Mothers Committees as well shows that he
is concerned about any organization that he sees as having the ability
to mobilize large sections of the population. He is convinced that
the Lee Kuan Yew model of economically focused authoritarianism is an
effective way to reform the country. Putin will do all that he can to
see that his economic policies are implemented, as he sees Russia's
continued economic growth, along with hydrocarbon production, as the
best way of ensuring that Russia remains a force in world politics, as
well as his reaffirming his political base.
The Post-putin reality will be one with a continuing focus on basic
economic reforms, but fraught with conflict over people trying to
protect their interets. Whoever is in power will have to deftly juggle
many powerful and conflicting interest groups. If Putin leaves many of
his more controversial economic reforms, such as the further
implementation of his pension benefit scheme and reducing utilities,
to his successor, this will be especially difficult.
Reducing corruption will also be a difficult battle with the
bureaucracy, especially with upper echelon officials. The visa
refusal of Hermitage Capital Manager and Chief Russia Cheerleader
William Browder shows just how powerful these interest can be.
Browder, despite being the most outspoken advocate of the stability
and positive trajectory of the Russian economy, is also a strong
supporter of transparency for Gazprom, Rosneft, and many of the
state-owned giants.
My view takes a rather generous assesment of Putin's tenure over the
past few years. Some of his actions, such as placing Rosoboronexport
in control of AvtoVAZ and Putin's continued insistence on limitations
on foreign bank branches for example, certainly run counter to my
central argument. However, as a business person operating in Russia
and trying to sell this country to foreign investors, it is very
difficult for me to overlook much of the progress that has been made
over the past few years and to say that Putin doesn't recognize the
importance of Russia's economic growth. Despite Yukos and other
situations where his desire for control has gotten the better of him
and outweighed any sympathies for the market, the business climate has
improved here in St. Petersburg, in large part due to federal
legislation.
Hopefully this will get the dialogue rolling...
rich stelnick
mac, thank you for wrapping your arms around my question. the concerns and issues that you have raised are indeed similar to the ones that my associates have discussed amongst ourselves.
in my position, i am afforded the opportunity to learn firsthand the opinions of americans, turks, and of course russians too. whether they are well-thought-out ones or gut reactions, more often than not they are steeped in tradition. by this i mean that the majority of impressions about russia always seem to start or end with a historical reference. for a country that in the last hundred years of its history has dealt with what can be simply put as "the three c's" - czarism, communism, and capitalism, i think that it is safe to say that this three-phase past has become the rungs of the proverbial ladder that many russians, turks, and americans cling to as the rule rather than the exception when discussing the future prospects of the russian federation. in this spirit, it is interesting to note in particular the widely-held turkish view of the major difference between americans and russians, in short; "americans love conspiracies and russians love tragedies".
which is why, quite frankly, i applaud vladimir putin. take for example his campaign against beer ads. in the west this news was met with the all too typical "russia reverting to communism" and "tsar putin" media reporting, drawing once again upon the historical perspective to feed fodder to western imaginations. however, the truth and the reality of the situation was and is less sinister of course. the fact is that russian youth, in an attempt to break the stereo-typical image of russians drinking their vodkas to excess, had discovered beer. so what is the terrible thing that vlad the impaler did? disturbed by visions of beer brawls breaking out at sporting events, putin himself a sportsman, who truly believes that a re-newed participation in russian sports by the populace will increase national pride, felt that (1) beer ads should be banned from the airwaves of daytime tv and radio, (2) drinking beer in paper bags in public should be banned from the streets, and (3) beer sponsorships should be banned from all athletic activities. why his words and actions received almost hysterical coverage in the united states of america proves the turks right. americans saw yet another conspiracy in moscow and russians were confronted with yet another tragedy. it is ironic to me that any american could demonize putin about beer bans when in the u.s.a. teenage drunk driving is a blight on the american conscience. why not ask m.a.d.d. or s.a.d.d. about the russian president's initiative? and russians should see their president's stand not as tragic because he pointed out yet another problem russians have, but because it is one more example of him trying to avert another national tragedy by making history for a change.
in closing, i would ask on behalf of my russian partners, that this discussion group please keep in mind that the operative word for the russian people in centuries past was "nyet" not "da". think about it as a natural progression, which takes time, effort, and money. russia, like turkey, will be no overnight success story. again, russia, like turkey, is a work in progress. russia's future is not only in its oil and gas fields, but in its people. in america, entrepreneurs know that no company can grow faster than the growth rate of the individuals within it. that my friends, in my opinion, is what i believe to be the opportunity in russia. and after all is said and done, the sure way to miss real success is to miss the real opportunity. to me that's what the real deal is in russia.
Babich Dmitry
Dear Rich, I was very pleased to read your statement about the beer. It is always pleasant to read someone, who is ready to talk about Russia's real problems and not about the usual pack (geopolitics, dealing with Stalinist past etc.) I would like to point your attention that the first person to tackle the problem was not Putin, but Russia's chief sanitary doctor Gennady Onishchenko. He first used the term "beer alchoholism among the young" in the year 2000. Everyone laughed at him. Beer companies started rumours that he was paid by vodka producers to start an anti-beer campaign. Several years later it turned out he was 150 percent right.
Since then Onishchenko made a lot of other "entartaining" statements about prostitutes (calling their clients "sexual preadators"), the spread of AIDS. A lot of people regard these statements with irony, but hearing them I had an urge to suggest Onishchenko's candidacy for Russia's presidency. We had enough of great jesters and cynical pragmatists in power. May be, putting there someone telling the simple truth and caring about public health could be a welcome change.
Yours, Dmitry Babich
paladin
thank you for your kind words.
unfortunately, too often discussion groups such as yours as used by
americans and others to pontificate as if they are experts on a subject
without having any firsthand knowledge and/or experience(s).
like americans and turks, russians are dealing with real world issues
and concerns. therefore, the need for all concerned to deal with
reality, and not pompous preaching about fantasy land scenarios that at
the end of the day accomplish nothing but perpetuate the gap between
our countries and cultures.
vsevo kharosheva,
-rich
paladin
rich stelnick
p.s. by the way, this is a high profile subject for me because of two things in particular as follows:
(1) my work with slava fetisov at rosssport (goskomsport). seeking muti-national corporate sponsors for russian sports, i have excellent connections at anheuser busch, the makers of budweiser beer, who expressed their interest in procuring a title sponsorship. slava and i agreed that we could not avail ourselves of busch's offer.
(2) one of my good friends is george gofnung of crystal gross who being in the vodka business was actually the first one to point out to me the emergence of beer in the russian youth market. interesting to note that since slava and i announced our position regarding budweiser, george has chosen to take a different career path.
RichStelnick
rich stelnick
dima-
have you guys at russia profile ever considered an "opinion" page, where you have asked your readers for their opinion about a topic, and you print (or display on the r.p. website) a synopsis of their comments? from my experience in marketing, such a thing appeals to readers' egos. in other words, readers would appreciate the opportunity for recognition (publication) of their opinions. in my opinion, pardon the pun, it would stimulate readership interest. just some food for thought for you and russia profile.
-rich
Rich
Zolotov Andrei
Thanks, Rich,
We are soon adding a "letters to the editor", of which we had dreamed ever since we had started Russia Profile. But only now have we got enough feedback to justify such a section.
Thanks for your suggestion and hope that you and other readers would be able to send interesting letters for us to publish on the site.
Sincrely, Andrei Zolotov
Andrei A, Zolotov Jr.
Editor, Russia Profile
www.russiaprofile.org
Tel. 7 (495) 981-6486
Fax 7 (495) 201-3071
Russia-Profile-...@googlegroups.com написано 29.03.2006 18:22:33:
> dima-