Ukraine elections - could a "grand coalition" be best?

[Peter Morley (Russia Profile Discussion Group)]

Quick thoughts on the post-election scene in Ukraine, assuming predictions that Party of the Regions ends up dominating the Rada but with a coalition needed to form a majority. The question then becomes - who forms that coalition and who becomes prime minister? In this case, I'd side with those suggesting a "grand coalition" (Orange-Blue, Viktor-Viktor, Yu-Ya, whatever you like to call it) could be the best option.

Yushchenko gets moderately pliable parliament. There would be problems, and the going would be slow at times, but I would suggest this formula could produce results. Yanukovich gets the PM post, with the leverage that entails (including tricky questions like that status of the Russian language, which could be used as a bargaining chip in negotiations over other issues with coalition partners).

Ukraine benefits from more parliamentary stability, although the pace of any planned reforms would slow. In addition, there is the huge political symbolism of a "government of national unity". In addition, Ukraine benefits from not having Tymoshenko as PM (and Yushchenko benefits from not being tied to her as well). Regardless of her political gifts and connections, Tymoshenko is too volatile and confrontational to do a good job at the moment - her rash statements about cancelling the gas deal only cemented that opinion at the weekend. Externally, Ukraine balances its interests on both East and West. (Russia wins by claiming "we told you so" and salvage post-Orange Revolution wounded pride).

All thoughts welcome.

http://www.russiaprofile.org/international/2006/3/24/3480.wbp

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,1945121,00.html?maca=en-rss-en-top-1022-rdf

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,1945453,00.html?maca=en-rss-en-all-1124-rdf