Global Warming

[BIL...@aol.com]

If the military is taking Arctic melting seriously that is good enough for me,

 

However, while to the point is well taken that true-believer environmentalists

overdo their claims, including making numbers of false claims to try and cause alarm,

there clearly are facts that tell us to be genuinely concerned. And,  BTW,  there

does seem to be a sort of psychological denial, or political denial,  at work in some

of the anti-warming claims also. That is, a "bad religion" of anti-warming denial

is not the answer to a bad religion of warming alarmism.

 

 

 

To outright deny ANY warming you would have to believe that there can

be causes with no effects.  Uhhh, that isn't possible.

 

 

No idea how many man-made BTUs go into the atmosphere each and every day

but it surely is well into the trillions. Not counting atmospheric dumping

of aerosols and other hydrocarbon chemicals

 

 

 

World at Night  --energy released via artificial lighting

 

 

 

 

 

"Flaring" burning off natural gas, a global practice--

also there are huge numbers of coal power plants in China, etc

and places around the world that use the atmosphere

as a dump for heat and chemicals

 

 

Thermal map of Earth

 

 

 

 

OK, there are some exaggerated claims by environmentalists, and

it does seem to me that reports about rates of sea-level rising are excessive,

and, yes, you can poke holes in some ecological studies. All of that is granted.

 

But for me it is far better to err on the side of caution and do everything possible

to stop polluting the atmosphere. 

 

In fact, it escapes me entirely why anyone would not want to do so.

 

Why would anyone at all not want to put an end to use of the atmosphere

as a heat and chemicals dump ? 

 

What is the motivation  --what are the real reasons--   to deny global warming ?

NOT talking about buying into each and every enviro claim, not talking about

becoming a true-believer in the whole agenda of the Greens, but just some

common sense and actual realism about what is going on in the world.

 

And please, don't insult my intelligence by saying that there are no effects.

That kind of position is indefensible.

 

 

I am anything but certain what all the effects of such practices are,

but they can't be good and the sooner they are limited or stopped altogether

the better off we all will be.

 

Billy

 

 

[David R. Block]

Here is some of the computer code and links to computer code and/or e-mails that were used to "hide the decline" that they were seeing in the Global Temperature data. Why?? Their vaunted Hockey stick graphics required a continual rise. A rise that they were not getting unless they, um, "cook the books."

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/25/climategate-hide-the-decline-codified/

So yeah, I really believe them. NOT. It looks like they took a course "How to Destroy your Reputation 101" or maybe even the graduate level 601 course.  :-)

In fact, there is a European website devoted to those trying to "hide the decline" and serve us junk science so that we will have junk policies, that will junk our economy and it seems as fi Obama and the EPA are very willing to force them on us, particularly cap and trade. http://hidethedecline.eu/

If Cap and Trade is dead, why does the EPA have a section on it? Because it is a policy that they are implementing without Congressional Legislation. http://www.epa.gov/captrade/

Who needs the Constitution in this day and age? WE DO. To prevent this kind of shit.

So I would rather be a denier that a promoter of fraudulent data, fraudulent science, and fraudulent conclusions. You get to the point (well, I do, anyway) where you wonder if these guys in the "scientific" community are hip to Cloward-Piven or what? With cap and trade it seems as though they are quite familiar with that.  If not bankrupting the government, they'll just bankrupt the people.

I could send 62 MB of zipped e-mails, program code, and documentation showing the gyrations that had to be done to get global warming to be classified as a crisis but they're all in one nice neat location, http://assassinationscience.com/climategate/ where there is also excerpts from the e-mail exchanges and links to the actual e-mail chains themselves. And this guy DOES call it a climate conspiracy. The perps make it look like one.

I also have another 173 MB of zipped files from between 2009-2011 that shows even more collaboration and manufacturing of data.

Russia even notes that the data from its stations were altered or eliminated which would naturally cause temperatures to appear to rise as data from the coldest nation is excluded from consideration http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/12/17/russian_data_cherrypicked_says_sceptic/

More on that:

http://climateaudit.org/2009/12/16/iearussia-hadley-center-probably-tampered-with-russian-climate-data/
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2010/08/climate_change_0
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1236513/Met-Office-manipulated-climate-change-figures-say-Russian-think-tank.html

Or they could have just negligently LOST the data. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/15/phil-jones-lost-weather-data

A Google Search on Climategate would help.

David 
 

"Free speech is meant to protect unpopular speech. Popular speech, by definition, needs no protection."—Neal Boortz

 

--
Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <Radical...@googlegroups.com>
Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism
Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org

[BIL...@aol.com]

I think you are missing the point.

 

Either that or you are telling me that trillions of BTUs released into the

atmosphere each and every day = ZERO effect.

 

Or you are telling me that there is zero effect from hundreds of "dirty"

Chinese coal power plants ?  And zero effect from all industrial operations

that still can be classified as "smokestack industries,"  less of a problem here

but still a mess in developing countries, and maybe growing in those countries.

 

I am more than willing to concede that the Greens are alarmists and

are not above producing fraudulent data.   I thought this was pretty clear

in my e-mail.

 

I am NOT defending the orthodox Green position.  No idea why this

isn't obvious beyond reasonable doubt.  But I sometimes do get the sense

that you are coming at this from a partisan --talking points--  perspective

to the effect that if someone disagrees with part of the preferred view

then he is actually advocating the whole schmeer of the "enemy view."

 

 

My point, made very clear, is that there necessarily IS an effect

from thousands ( tens of thousands ? ) of examples of gas flaring

all over the world, every day, and of perfectly legal and understandable

public lighting, which now illuminates whole continents, and heat transfer

to the atmosphere at large from innumerable sources.

 

Let me guess at the number, I don't know what it really is,

but let's say that all these sources equal about 10 trillion BTUs,

possibly a decent ballpark figure, going into the atmosphere 24 / 7 / 365.

 

All of this heat  = NO  EFFECT  ?

 

Oh yeah,  what kind of mushrooms have you been ingesting ?

 

 

To repeat, this is NOT the same as some sort of defense

that I am not making in favor of orthodox Green politics and bogus science.

 

Just saying that since there is a cause,  10 trillion BTUs daily,

then there necessarily is an effect.

 

Since there necessarily is an effect we had better be serious

about clean technology and stopping atmospheric pollution.

 

If you are saying there is no effect then the data you are using

is just as fraudulent as the fraudulent data supplied by the Greens.

 

 

Billy

[David R. Block]

Missing the point? Perhaps. Maybe if you painted a red target on it.....

Does the heat stay in the atmosphere and not get radiated out into space? It's there, always and forever? Seems that's not quite right or all of the heat from all of the munitions of  just the wars in the last century would have us still sweltering. So I think that heat escapes into space eventually. Whether or not we are exceeding that capacity is probably unknown. Particulate matter eventually settles out, Hence volcanic ash far and wide after a volcano eruption.

There seems to have been a problem with the "global warming" models on this very issue.

http://www.dailytech.com/Study+Finds+Huge+Discrepancy+Between+Hard+Data+and+Warming+Models/article22301.htm

David
 

--

[Dr. Ernie Prabhakar]

Here is some of the computer code and links to computer code and/or e-mails that were used to "hide the decline" that they were seeing in the Global Temperature data. Why?? Their vaunted Hockey stick graphics required a continual rise. A rise that they were not getting unless they, um, "cook the books." 

ClimateGate was news in 2009.  The data has moved on from then.

The best analysis I've seen (as best I can recall) is that:

a) Yes, there is some warning

b) The direct warming is only one degree or so, which isn't that big of a deal

c) Different models predict different amounts of *indirect* warming, which could be *up to* 10 degrees -- which would be a big deal

d) The key phrase is "up to" -- it could be that, it could be way less

e) Best hard data I've seen is that there is a 90% chance of "substantial" global warning, with 10% chance of only "minor" warming

Given those facts, it is easy to see why both sides accuse the other of shoddy science.  The Lefts sees the 90% and says "Ha, the scientific consensus is that the earth will get dramatically warmer." The Right sees the 10% and says "Ha, there isn't a real consensus, it is all a hoax."

Both are crude oversimplifications.  The reality is it is a crapshoot; we don't know for sure. This makes it easy to project our ideological preferences onto the data.

 The wise response is to take prudent steps that make sense anyway -- like increasing efficiency while reducing dependence on oil, which makes sense for a ton of other reasons.  Over time, we can develop better estimates. But don't push for solutions that may cause more problems than they create (in either direction) until we have the data to support them.

Alas, such data-driven nuance is foreign to our politics….

-- Ernie P.

<F4736005-847A-41CF-AC62-11A7B2331D67.jpeg>

 

 

 

"Flaring" burning off natural gas, a global practice--

also there are huge numbers of coal power plants in China, etc

and places around the world that use the atmosphere

as a dump for heat and chemicals

 

<8C9F9E10-1C16-45C2-BA3A-D41A707D858B.jpeg>

 

Thermal map of Earth

 

<7E0AC7D6-0E68-403C-8180-CD7A74961192.jpeg>

[BIL...@aol.com]

 

Ernie :
What strikes me is how oblivious both L & R are to their motivations.

 

To simplify, the Left, highly suspicious of corporations even while

not-so-Left Democrats cozy up to Wall Street, wants maximum restraints

placed on corporate America  --for the sake of a clean environment

even at the cost of jobs and productivity, which it cannot admit publicly.

The Right places a priority on jobs and productivity and if this means

that if the environment is sacrificed in the process, sobeit. Except that

the Right cannot admit this either, and as a result creates a mythology

that global warming is all a giant hoax.

 

Two kinds of denial are in play. Both, since each IS a form of denial,

is intrinsically dishonest even if these are lies each side seems to

believe in with some degree of sincerity.

 

There is a kind of logical ( obviously not substantive ) parallel to Holocaust

deniers and Holocaust  maximizers. One says that while there were deaths,

"only" a few hundred thousand Jews perished, or maybe one million or so.

The other side insists that a 6 million tally is absolute truth and must never

be questioned no matter what the data actually says  --which seems to be

in the 4-1/2 million to 5 million range. That is, the actual numbers

have been sacrificed to political purposes.

 

Same kind of  thing with respect to global warming maximizers vs minimizers.

 

 

OK, how do we come up with a Radical Centrist position on the issue ?

 

 

Billy

 

 

======================================

[Karthik Navayan]

--

B.Karthik Navayan,

http://karthiknavayan.wordpress.com/

[David R. Block]

It both has and hasn't moved on. There was a second file dump late last year or early this year covering 2009-2011. 173MB when zipped, it contained more damning information than the first data dump, because it was almost 3 times the size.

The control of "peer-reviewed" journals where skeptics could not get published is probably one of the worst excesses of the whole exercise. Instead of furthering discourse and debate, it effectively shut it down. Seems that the "warming" crowd was not interested in discourse or discussion, only their agenda. Like I said, I think that many of them took "How to Ruin Your Own Reputation While Trying to Ruin Others" courses.

That, or they are credentialed, but not educated.

David

[David R. Block]

Gentlemen,

Look, it doesn't help that in the 1970s, some of those screeching the loudest about "Global Warming" in the late 1990s and early 2000s were all stoked and screaming about the "New Ice Age" back then.

I'm surprised that a mere 30 years worth of data can reverse what was then called a "centuries long trend."

So, were they lying to me then or are they lying to me now?? And why should I believe them either way?? Those 180 degree turns are dangerous.

Gee, I dunno......

Holocaust denial??? REALLY??? Ach mein Gott im Himmel!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

David

[Chris Hahn]

The trend is actually more like 100,000 years based on solar radiation cycles.  I am pretty sure the earth will experience another ice age, but we won't be around to see it.  That said, it makes sense that the relatively active release of hydrocarbons stored over the millennia could create a greenhouse effect that could have a real impact on the climate.  The problem is that there are so many variables.  It is hard to isolate any one factor.  What if another Krakatoa blows, or another giant asteroid hits?  How will that change the equation?  Who the heck really knows?  Maybe all of the human caused greenhouse gasses will prevent us from another ice age.

 

Chris

 

 

 

From: radical...@googlegroups.com [mailto:radical...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of David R. Block
Sent: Monday, April 23, 2012 9:56 PM
To: radical...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: [RC] Global Warming

 

Gentlemen,

[David R. Block]

I don't think that they really know either Chris. Some have been all over the map on the issue, but usually wherever the research money was.

David