Manifest of Bitcoin-To-Zero!
Bitcoin is being to ZERO! It's April 14th, 2024, today, It's already the annual fourth global World Quantum Day!
As of the fourth World Quantum Day today, the world has become conscious of quantum technology, and the number of people who have got quantum awareness, and consciousness, should have reached around 20 million.
The past few decades have been the era of the electronic computer which utilized electronic phenomena in physics to compute; Quantum computers, on the other hand, make calculations using quantum phenomena in physics, marking a new era of quantum computing that may last for several hundred, or even thousands of years. Until humanity invents or discovers a new kind of physical particle phenomenon other than electronics and quantum to carry out computations, the next millennia will be quantum times!
Humanity has actually entered the era of the quantum computer!
Over the past decade or so, coinciding with the release of Bitcoin, there have been successive qualitative leaps and advancements in quantum computing research and development worldwide, which led to the global trend, led by the United States beginning in 2022, demanding that nearly all internet, cloud, data, government, and financial systems migrate to quantum-resistant, or PQC, by 2030, or 2033, or at the latest by 2035!
It's actually only 7 years! Tick-Tock!
Migrating to quantum-resistant represents the largest global cryptographic algorithm upgrade and migration in history. It's the most significant step in the "modernization of cryptography algorithms"!
If all cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, do not upgrade to quantum-resistant in time like the global internet, cloud, data, government, and financial systems, it would be inconceivable! It would lead to the complete dispersion of Bitcoin consensus, the collapse of that consensus, and perhaps an exponential decline to zero, or even a complete fall to zero!
Unfortunately, as one of the world's top teams of researchers, learners, and educators in quantum-resistant, our judgment from years of repeated testing and discussion is that: Even if Bitcoin still exists in the decades to come, the complete and successful migration to quantum-resistant will be a very difficult, almost a mission impossible!
In fact, Bitcoin is nearly the most difficult digital currency to fully upgrade to quantum-resistant!
For the average person, recognizing these four simple, easy-to-understand facts or reasons, makes it relatively easy to understand: Why Bitcoin is the hardest digital currency to fully upgrade to quantum-resistant:
1st:
Upgrading all cryptocurrencies to quantum-resistant requires users to manually execute software and hardware operations at their terminal by tapping on the keyboard, a process known as "ship-jumping".
Users have to proactively upgrade manually, and obviously, the more users there are, the more difficult the upgrade becomes;
Bitcoin, having the most addresses and users compared to other digital currencies, faces the largest upgrade challenge;
And for all digital currencies, the more they postpone or delay the migration, the more users accumulate, making it relatively even more difficult to upgrade completely.
Thus, it is essential to upgrade as early as possible to maximize the number of users that can migrate successfully.
2nd:
To date, there are only 3 types of quantum-resistant digital signature algorithms that can be possibly used for Bitcoin migration:
Multivariate signatures, Hash-based signatures, and Lattice-based signatures.
It usually takes around 20 to 30 years for a new algorithm to be discovered, developed, improved, and refined over the past decades; therefore, even in the decades to come, these 3 types of potentially quantum-resistant algorithms that could be mature, stable, and used possbily for Bitcoin would remain limited.
3rd:
All quantum-resistant digital signatures have very large public keys size, or large signatures length, a situation that will not see substantial qualitative changes or improvements for many decades to come.
BitcoinCore developers should not expect shorter signatures or public keys, or significant improvements in various features; Fortunately, the current quantum-resistant digital signaturews at least meet the maximum quantum-safe requirements currently discernible.
4th:
All Proof-of-Work PoW cryptocurrencies must send their public key and signature across the whole network during any outward transaction for calculation and verification.
If we call the sum of the lengths of the public key and signature used in any signature running under PoW, the Broadcasting Unit Size or BUS, the larger the BUS and the smaller the block capacity, the more easily the network becomes congested.
When using any type of quantum-resistant algorithm for outward transactions under PoW, the BUS is many times that of the currently used Elliptic Curve Digital Signature ECC256 Schnorr in Bitcoin.
To be precise, under the assumption of security level 1, among the aforementioned 3 types of quantum-resistant signatures; the BUS of the lattice signature is 20 or 40 times that of the elliptic curve signature BUS currently used in Bitcoin; The hash-based signature's BUS is 200 times greater, and the Multivariate signature's BUS is as high as 2000 times.
Using just some simple multiplication and division, it can be easily calculated that, if Bitcoin maintains its current 1MB block size, since Bitcoin's current peak transaction rate is 7 transactions per second, then using any of the aforementioned 3 quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms, its regular peak transaction number would be:
With a 20-fold lattice-based signature BUS, after the adoption, the peak would be about one transaction every 20/7 seconds, which means each transaction would take roughly 3 seconds;
Similarly, if Bitcoin adopts a 40-fold BUS lattice-based signature for quantum-proof, each transaction will take 40/7 seconds, which means a peak of about 6 seconds per transaction;
Similarly, if using any hash-based signature with a 200-fold BUS for quantum-secure each transaction will take 200/7 seconds, which means a peak of about 30 seconds per transaction;
Similarly, if using any multivariate signature with a 2000-fold BUS for quantum resistant, each transaction will take 2000/7 seconds, which means a peak of about 300 seconds per transaction;
It's crucial to note: this regular peak does not account for the abnormally high peak that occurs when "ship-jumping", when massive volumes of new addresses are created very quickly by numerous users, and the entire network broadcasts extraordinarily large public keys or signatures using quantum resistant signature, resulting in a "non-normal peak," This sort of "non-normal peak" would cause a systemic and comprehensive network congestion.
After calculations, if Bitcoin maintains a 1MB block space, even under regular conditions, completing the upgrade migration for all Bitcoin addresses could potentially take up to 20 years!
This explains why any newly built system must adopt quantum-resistant signatures from the outset. because new systems that start with quantum-resistant don't need to consider the special circumstances of massive user activity during "ship-jumping," Directly implementing quantum-resistant in a newly built system is obviously easier than refitting an existing system that has not yet adopted such an algorithm!
The efficiency of transactions within a 1MB block space is unimaginably low! it essentially means that: Even if Bitcoin adopts any quantum-resistant, if such quantum-resistant signature is not specially processed, it would be impossible to continue running long-term Proof-of-Work under 1MB block space!
Further, we have summarized the five obstacles to upgrading Bitcoin to quantum-resistant, with the 1st obstacle being the block size. We refer to this 1st obstacle as the concept of "The Trilemma of bitcoin migration to quantum resistant":
That is to say, Bitcoin cannot, while upgrading to any quantum-resistant signature, allow the majority of its users to complete the upgrade, and at the same time maintain the Proof-of-Work continuously under the 1MB premise. If Bitcoin migrates to quantum-resistant, to transition as many existing Bitcoin users as possible, if we aim to maintain long-term Proof-of-Work with the largest possible consensus, we must give up the 1MB block size!
Taking into account that Bitcoin has the largest number of users, and considering the exceptionally high peaks when massive users "ship-jumping", Bitcoin's block size should be significantly increased to 256MB, which might feasibly permit within a certain period as many users as possible to upgrade to the new quantum-resistant on a global discursive basis.
The 2nd obstacle in upgrading Bitcoin to quantum-resistant is: Regardless of which quantum-resistant is used, it cannot long-term run Proof-of-Work, unless employing a "Zipcodinization with Multivariate", called Z&M, in essence, requires placing the very large public key of the multivariate signature on an earlier block height, similar to "Zip-code".
"Zipcodinization with Multivariate", Z&M, is the only way, even in the next several decades, that offers both quantum resistant and long-term running Proof-of-Work with the highest consensus possibility. that's the point!
This Z&M has been operating on a blockchain named Raqcoin since its release in 2018. Bitcoin should refer to Raqcoin's tested and mature method and become the 2nd to use this "Z&M" approach, adopting Multivariate signatures to be quantum resistant, to maintain the PoW mechanism with stability and the largest consensus likelihood over the long-term, or the 3rd one to use Z&M!
However, the 3rd obstacle to Bitcoin upgrading to quantum-resistant is that: Upgrading to any quantum-resistant requires Bitcoin to take a step backwards to its status several years ago, such as returning to pre-2015 Bitcoin, since none of these 3 types of quantum-resistant support fully the technological path taken after 2015. the concept, definition, and especially the execution details of this regressed state of pre-2015 Bitcoin require prompt and transparent public discussions step by step by the global Bitcoin community.
In addition, the 4th possible obstacle to Bitcoin's upgrade to quantum-resistant is: Bitcoin need replace the current SHA256 hash-mining with solving Multivariate formula equation mining, to decentralize more feasibly, carry more social and mathematically meaningful;
And the 5th possible obstacle is: Bitcoin ought to change the current halving of supply every four years, to a reduction of 25%, or 10% or even less every four years, to persist as a cryptocurrency for nearly a thousand years.
But, even if all the above 5 incredibly tough obstacles could be overcome, executed, and resolved. It would still be difficult to solve the issues associated with approximately 6 million long-term inactive, idle, or passphrase-lost Bitcoin addresses and whether these addresses need upgrading and how to upgrade them.
The most likely approach to quickly resolve the above obstacles is for the Bitcoin community, individuals, groups, and organizations concerned with cryptocurrencies, to commence a full, public, transparent, and extensive discussion ASAP, to come up with an openly workable solution.
If we do not do so, what would be the severity of the Bitcoin situation?
It is certain that in this year, 2024, NIST of USA will essentially have completed the determination of all quantum-resistant algorithms, and while their characteristics for the application scenario of cryptocurrencies are not yet rich and mature, but they basically meet the needs, especially the minimum usable scenario for Bitcoin. We should fully support the adoption of these peer-reviewed algorithms to retrofit Bitcoin or apply them to newly established cryptocurrencies, even if these algorithms are used on new forked chains of Bitcoin.
It can also be affirmed that around 2030, almost all major global internet systems, cloud systems, data systems, and global governments and financial systems will have either mostly or already completed migration to quantum-resistant.
Additionally, a basic judgment we can make is: If by 2030, the Bitcoin community cannot discuss globally, transparently, and urgently the practical and feasible solution to migrating to quantum-resistant, then as more and more people become aware of the necessity and urgency to migrate to quantum-resistant, Bitcoin's consensus may begin to disperse, partially collapse, or even collapse suddenly. Leading to an exponential decline to zero.
Therefore, in view of the dire pre-warning that Bitcoin may face consensus dispersion, collapse, or even decline to zero in the next few years, we all should loudly use various channels to emit various sounds, to remind, warn, forewarn, and call for attention!
Thus, we prefer to call on the global Bitcoin and cryptocurrency community, to use the slogan loudly and clearly to sound the alarm:
Bitcoin may become worthless!
Bitcoin to zero!
This shock slogan of warning should be taken seriously and forewarned, it would alert all participants, promoters, policy makers, etc. in the world of cryptocurrencies,
to fully address this potential situation, to at least partially devise a workable solution that enables Bitcoin to smoothly migrate to quantum-resistant with the largest possible consensus.
Calling everyone to proclaim "Bitcoin to zero!" as a warning slogan, as a means to waken public consciousness, aims to encourage Bitcoin, in the process of algorithm modernization,
to best continue to maintain the PoW mechanism, and to successfully upgrade to quantum-resistant.
If through such appeals, Bitcoin ultimately, or even partially, successfully upgrades to quantum-resistant, it will be a miracle of successful upgrades in modern algorithm history!
"Bitcoin to zero" is an immediate means to raise awareness and achieve goals! The sages have said:
Recognize what can be done and do it! What seems hopeless, a bold attempt, often leads to success!
If through this appeal, even with the joint efforts of global cryptocurrency participants, promoters, policy makers, etc., Bitcoin still does not upgrade to quantum-resistant even if not entirely successful, We will not regret it; we will quickly learn lessons from failure,
if through global public and transparent discussions, Bitcoin still does not upgrade to quantum resistant, then it would be prudent to provide palliative care and management, to avert squandering humanity's confidence, resources, and credit in cryptocurrencies, and continue to desperately rescue, drag down, and waste humanity's reliance on cryptocurrencies is not worthwhile.
After all, even if Bitcoin goes to zero, it may signify that when one whale falls, myriad life forms arise!
Looking back at humanity, from walking upright to inventing the wheel, inventing the horse-drawn wagon, evolving non-stop to invent cars, trains, planes, to Musk's SpaceX reaching Mars directly, the intention of humanity has always been for better communication and transport, to reach destinations faster and more energy-efficiently, not for the sake of the vehicles themselves.
To some extent, Bitcoin is a means for humanity to actualize the Peer-to-Peer, Bitcoin itself is by no means humanity's purpose.
If Bitcoin indeed eventually becomes worthless, it has also paved a certain degree of new possibility for a global quantum computing era that may persist for hundreds of years,
potentially operating a cryptocurrency minted through Proof-of-Work for centuries to come!
Bitcoin may become worthless!
Once again, we urge the global cryptocurrency community to discuss as broadly and transparently as possible: How to upgrade Bitcoin to quantum-resistant, how to overcome various upgrade obstacles;
Don't waste time or wait, just do it right this moment!
As new projects are easier to implement with quantum-resistant than retrofitting projects, we call from now on, for new projects to adopt quantum-resistant as much as possible;
We also urge all existing cryptocurrencies, even if they are not as difficult to upgrade as Bitcoin, to upgrade to quantum-resistant ASAP, and as much as possible!
We urge the running of the PoW mechanism on green, renewable energy!
Bitcoin to zero!
If PoW is the soul of Bitcoin, also the only mechanism that makes decentralization and Peer-to-Peer possible for humanity, then even if Bitcoin cannot retain the PoW mechanism and has to shift to the PoS mechanism out of necessity, PoS is also an important invention in cryptocurrency.
Regardless, we should continue to appeal and promote the upgrading of cryptocurrencies, to migrate to quantum-resistant comprehensively! To achieve the modernization of algorithms.
In the process of algorithm modernization, there will be repeated, game-changing, trillion-dollar restructuring opportunities for human society!
Walking upright was never humanity's goal, the stars and oceans are!
Both PoW and PQC, these two, represent the stars and oceans of human society for the near millennium, the Utopia for all!
On humanity's 4th World Quantum Day, let's once again call for awareness and vigilance:
Bitcoin to zero!!!