Prediction Market Search Engine

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Emile Servan-Schreiber

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Nov 5, 2007, 6:56:37 PM11/5/07
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All,

Offering convenient access to the vast trove of predictions currently offered by the growing number of prediction markets is something that would benefit the whole industry, and it's one of the stated goals of the PMIA.  As an experiment, I've been playing with a Google custom search engine for prediction markets. It does a regular Google search, but restricted to specific PM sites* rather than the whole Web.  You can try out the Prediction Market Search Engine at http://www.pmindustry.org/search.html

As a way of pulling predictions, it is rather disappointing. It seems that, as PM publishers, we're all doing a terrible job of making our sites' predictions properly available to search engines...  To build something useful, we'll likely need to start by setting some prediction-reporting standards. At this point, all ideas are welcome. Let's get the ball rolling !

--
Emile Servan-Schreiber
www.newsfutures.com
www.bet2give.com

(*) The sites currently included in the search are (in alphabetical order): Bet2Give, Central Intelligence Market, Foresight Exchange, FT Predict, Gexid, Hollywood Stock Exchange, Inkling, Intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Media Predict, National Journal Political Stock Exchange, NewsFutures, Nimanix, PopSci Prediction Exchange, PublicGyan, qMarkets, Reality Markets, The Sim Exchange, Storage Markets, Tradesports, Wahl Fieber, Washington Stock Exchange, Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game. If you don't see your PM site listed, send me a note with your site's name and url and I'll include it.

Bo Cowgill

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Nov 5, 2007, 7:34:45 PM11/5/07
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At some point, I think this would make a great set of Google Subscribed Links. This would allow people to see current PM prices in their Google search results. For example, if you searched for "2008 Election" on Google, you could see something at the top such as as:

2008 US Election: Prediction Market Odds:
Democrat: 58%, Republican: 42%
Sources InTrade (58/42), Inkling (60/40), NewsFutures (55/45), etc.

... something like this would show up for people who signed up for the PMIA's subscribed links.

Also: Some people at Google wanted to build this functionality into the core search product at one point, so that you could get prediction market odds to show up on in search results for everyone (not just people who subscribed to this kind of results). We were thinking that it would show up in a way similar to how stock quotes currently appear on search results when you type a stock ticker into Google (see example). So if this became a well designed data feed and useful feature, we could talk about moving it off the subscribed model and onto the general public's search results for certain queries (no promises though).

Obviously this would be a good idea for other search engine's results if they have a subscribed links program.

Bo

Lucy Vega

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Nov 5, 2007, 8:28:15 PM11/5/07
to Predictio...@googlegroups.com

Fantastic idea.

In addition to thinking about stock displays as a reference point, I would suggest looking at the various odds-comparison websites. These are closer conceptually to what you want to accomplish, and in fact they tend to include the likes of Intrade, Betfair, etc.

http://www.betbrain.com/oddsOverview/Specials/sportId/34/site/0
http://int.bestbetting.com/specials/   (does some nice charting)
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials
http://lines.sbrlines.com/ (sports only)

I would think that Google could do a better job than these (and other) sites already do, and and also pull in a wider range of markets and claims, while leaving aside all the sports (or not). Let me know if you want some feedback on these sites from a very frequent user. I can't wait to see what you create.

George Tziralis

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Nov 6, 2007, 2:25:18 AM11/6/07
to Prediction Markets
I may also point to a similar attempt of mine, started back in Oct 06:

http://gtziralis.googlepages.com/search

(coverage: http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/prediction-markets-search-engine/)

The directory now includes 822 URLs, labeled as online_markets/
papers/ news&blogs
(on their majority deep links from various blogs referring to
prediction markets that I'm patiently collecting on a daily basis,
using tools like rss feeds on google blog and news search etc, for
example http://gtziralis.com/post/14802234)

I'm eager to contribute content or anything, of course.

PS: I see Bo's 2nd idea as, maybe, the fastest way to wide public
awareness of prediction markets.

Best regards,
George Tziralis

On Nov 6, 3:28 am, "Lucy Vega" <vega.l...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Fantastic idea.
>
> In addition to thinking about stock displays as a reference point, I would
> suggest looking at the various odds-comparison websites. These are closer
> conceptually to what you want to accomplish, and in fact they tend to
> include the likes of Intrade, Betfair, etc.
>

> http://www.betbrain.com/oddsOverview/Specials/sportId/34/site/0http://int.bestbetting.com/specials/ (does some nice charting)http://www.oddschecker.com/specialshttp://lines.sbrlines.com/(sports only)


>
> I would think that Google could do a better job than these (and other) sites
> already do, and and also pull in a wider range of markets and claims, while
> leaving aside all the sports (or not). Let me know if you want some feedback
> on these sites from a very frequent user. I can't wait to see what you
> create.
>

> On 11/5/07, Bo Cowgill <b...@stanfordalumni.org> wrote:
>
>
>
> > At some point, I think this would make a great set of Google Subscribed

> > Links <http://www.google.com/coop/subscribedlinks/>. This would allow


> > people to see current PM prices in their Google search results. For example,
> > if you searched for "2008 Election" on Google, you could see something at
> > the top such as as:
>
> > 2008 US Election: Prediction Market Odds:
> > Democrat: 58%, Republican: 42%

> > Sources InTrade <http://intrade.com> (58/42), Inkling
> > <http://inklingmarkets.com> (60/40), NewsFutures <http://newsfutures.com>(55/45), etc.


>
> > ... something like this would show up for people who signed up for the
> > PMIA's subscribed links.
>
> > Also: Some people at Google wanted to build this functionality into the
> > core search product at one point, so that you could get prediction market

> > odds to show up on in search results for *everyone* (not just people who
> > subscribed to this kind of results)*.* We were thinking that it would show


> > up in a way similar to how stock quotes currently appear on search results

> > when you type a stock ticker into Google (see example<http://www.google.com/search?q=GOOG&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=com.ub...>).


> > So if this became a well designed data feed and useful feature, we could
> > talk about moving it off the subscribed model and onto the general public's
> > search results for certain queries (no promises though).
>
> > Obviously this would be a good idea for other search engine's results if
> > they have a subscribed links program.
>
> > Bo
>

> > On Nov 5, 2007 3:56 PM, Emile Servan-Schreiber < e...@newsfutures.com>


> > wrote:
>
> > > All,
>
> > > Offering convenient access to the vast trove of predictions currently
> > > offered by the growing number of prediction markets is something that would
> > > benefit the whole industry, and it's one of the stated goals of the PMIA.
> > > As an experiment, I've been playing with a Google custom search engine for
> > > prediction markets. It does a regular Google search, but restricted to
> > > specific PM sites* rather than the whole Web. You can try out the

> > > Prediction Market Search Engine athttp://www.pmindustry.org/search.html

alex kirtland

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Nov 6, 2007, 7:58:36 AM11/6/07
to Predictio...@googlegroups.com
You can also try the Prediction Markets Swicki, which I'm happy to turn over
to any new PM industry group for managemet.

Regards,
~alex

Alex Kirtland | UsableMarkets
markets, design, usability, research

www.usableMarkets.com | phone: +1 917.623.9131

http://gtziralis.googlepages.com/search

(coverage:
http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/prediction-markets-search-engine/)

Best regards,
George Tziralis

__________________________________________________
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alex

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Nov 6, 2007, 8:29:13 AM11/6/07
to Prediction Markets
and, the URL of that swiki is: http://prediction-markets-swicki.eurekster.com/

~alex

On Nov 6, 7:58 am, alex kirtland <akirtl...@rocketmail.com> wrote:
> You can also try the Prediction Markets Swicki, which I'm happy to turn over
> to any new PM industry group for managemet.
>
> Regards,
> ~alex
>
> Alex Kirtland | UsableMarkets
> markets, design, usability, research
>
> www.usableMarkets.com | phone: +1 917.623.9131
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Predictio...@googlegroups.com
>
> [mailto:Predictio...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of George Tziralis
> Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2007 2:25 AM
> To: Prediction Markets
> Subject: Re: Prediction Market Search Engine
>
> I may also point to a similar attempt of mine, started back in Oct 06:
>
> http://gtziralis.googlepages.com/search
>
> (coverage:http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/10/25/prediction-markets-search-engine/)
>
> The directory now includes 822 URLs, labeled as online_markets/ papers/
> news&blogs (on their majority deep links from various blogs referring to
> prediction markets that I'm patiently collecting on a daily basis, using

> tools like rss feeds on google blog and news search etc, for examplehttp://gtziralis.com/post/14802234)

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