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Eric Zitzewitz

Feb 22, 2007, 12:40:07 PM2/22/07
to Prediction Markets
So at Justin's and my suggestion, Intrade has just listed a contract
on whether the XM-Sirius merger will close.

(We've been waiting for a nice, juicy, controversial merger like this
ever since Hp-Compaq)

Interestingly, the MM has it at 60 bid/70 ask to close by June 08, but
if you look at the stock prices of XMSR and SIRI, they have lost some
of their initial announcement effect. There might be some free money
on the table for the quick (I am abstaining).

If there is interest in this contract, I might be able to get them to
run a contract on future subscription prices and subscribers (either
conditional on the merger closing or just straight up). If you think
about it, this could be an interesting tool for evaluating mergers in
the future.

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