Bayesian Prediction Market Participation Opportunity
DAGGRE
Bayesian Prediction Market Participation Opportunity
- Do you have a method for forecasting, time series analysis, statistical inference, bias correction, or recalibration?
- Could you apply it to real-time forecasts of current events (like international politics, global economics, political stability, or health & technology trends)?
- Are you willing to test it against humans and machines in a points-based crowdsourcing experiment?
If so, you are invited to participate in DAGGRE, a research project sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), part of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
Research has shown that groups tend to do better than most individuals, and that you can be pretty accurate in many cases by simply averaging everyone’s opinion (the “wisdom of the crowds” effect). Using this method of crowdsourcing, our goal is to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision and timeliness in forecasts of strategic interests.
DAGGRE uses a combinatorial prediction market to aggregate information from large numbers of participants to arrive at a market consensus forecast. The market is essentially set up as a game, where events are listed for you to make estimates of their probability. You gain or lose points depending on how close your prediction is to the final resolution. The current market probability reflects the market consensus of the likelihood that the event will happen. When the truth is revealed (i.e., the event happens or the expiration date arrives without the event happening), participants gain or lose points based on the forecasts they made.
If you’re interested in learning more, we will be hosting an All-Inclusive Forecasting Workshop in Los Angeles, CA in March for all interested participants. The workshop provides expert training and hands-on sessions to help you become better forecasters. You will have the opportunity to learn how to be better at “betting” in the prediction market, how to anticipate and correct cognitive biases, and about tools, techniques, and theories in the judgment and decision sciences that are used across government and industry to predict the future.
Join the DAGGRE team now and together we can predict tomorrow, today.
To qualify for participation, you must be a U.S. citizen at least 18 years of age. For more information, please visit daggre.org or email us at dag...@c4i.gmu.edu
