DELHI ELECTION RESULTS

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Chandra Jain

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Dec 7, 2013, 1:00:00 PM12/7/13
to PANIIT-Disc...@yahoogroups.com, panii...@googlegroups.com, IITD 1967, paniitac...@googlegroups.com, pravin purang
I will venture to make a prediction re DELHI - it may be a wild guess, an educated study or maybe just a hunch :
                                      OPTIMISTIC
AAP         15 + 2 Seats      25 + 2  

Congress  15 + 2               20 + 2

BJP          30 + 2               35 +  2

Arvind will win New Delhi seat with 35 + 2% votes, Shiela 30 + 2 % & Vijendra 30+ 2 %.

Arvind will become the CM after a lot of haggling, pushing-pulling - whatever may be the election result (unless BJP gets an abs majority). Congress is OUT of power in Delhi..

I hope Arvind steps down from his idealism & does not force a re-election in case of hung assembly.
He has to be pragmatic about it all - it was fine to make pre-election announcements of no coalition to show confidence 7 instill confidence in supporters - a great election strategy - but after the results, one has to be pragmatic - it would not be a compromise but a practical decision.

Anyone else wants to make a guess?
--
Chandra k Jain
India
call: 93124 39464
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On Fri, Dec 6, 2013 at 2:17 PM, Raj Varadarajan <raj_var...@yahoo.com> wrote:
 



Raj

Begin forwarded message:

From: Surendra Srivastava <surendra....@gmail.com>
Date: 6 December 2013 1:55:59 pm IST
To: undisclosed-recipients:;
Subject: Question : What is the first priority of the Nation.? - Answer: Routing Congress in forth coming elections - Q: IS LOK SATTA PARTY ALLIGNING WITH BJP ?? A: PLEASE READ THIS MAIL - LOK SATTA PARTY COMMUNICATION


Comments from one of the sympathizer of Lok Satta Party:

 

Quote;

 

Dear Suren,

 

Please remove me from the Loksatta mailing list. I never thought that you would become a BJP advocate. I am seriously disappointed with you and Loksatta. I was always under the impression that Loksatta was intended to be an independent platform that fought for citizen's rights. And of all things to align with a communal party is the last thing I thought Loksatta would do. 

 

 

Unquote;

 

Lok Satta Party’s Response and Position

 

Quote;

 

 

Dear ……..


I presume that your mail is basis some of messages that are emanating from Lok Satta with a call to rout the congress in forth coming election.

 

I was saddened that you judge us harshly.


You have been part and witness of the journey Lok Satta has undertaken to bring solid reforms to make the governance accountable to people. We have stood by reason when passions have flared and we do so now as well. Have you ever seen us take shortcuts or compromise on ideology?

 

Politics is about hard choices particularly in a very complex society. Lok Satta has witnessed how Telangana issue has flared and impacted human lives. From the comfort of where we sit, we sometimes find it hard to experience the havoc wrecking on our nation. The danger to our federal structure, innumerable cases of corruption and despicable back room manipulations have marked this Congress regime. Congress led UPA Government is behaving like a monarch in going ahead with its decision to bifurcate Andhra Pradesh without bringing about a comprehensive and amicable understanding among people of different regions. The Centre cannot keep the State united or bifurcate it forcibly. Creation of a new State is going to be neither a catastrophe nor a panacea for people’s problems.

 

Taking advantage the situation, some leaders are promising jobs to all those who passed the tenth class, distribution of three acres of land to each landless family and irrigation of thousands of acres of land by making the water defy gravity.

 

The determined efforts of the Congress led UPA Government and its oft-repeated declarations that Andhra Pradesh will be divided irrespective of the State Legislature’s views pose a grave danger to federalism and unity of India. Several States have been formed after 1950, but this is the first occasion when a major State is sought to be divided without the consent of the State Legislature, and without a negotiated settlement among the stake-holders and various regions, and in the face of fierce opposition from vast sections of the public. Undoubtedly there is large support for the formation of Telangana State in the Telangana region outside the Greater Hyderabad city. Equally certainly, there is overwhelming opposition to division of the State in Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions, and in Hyderabad city.  Therefore, any redrawing of the boundaries would need another agreement arrived at by the affected parties through patient negotiation, and the Union has a seminal role in helping reconcile conflicting interests harmoniously. It cannot create a group of winners, and a much larger group of losers.  

 

The divisiveness of congress is very evident the way in which Tenagana issue is being handled and infect for narrow vote bank politics. The issues like Telangana can not be handled casually and surely not as vote bank.

 

While neither do we wish for this, but we stand at a juncture that any future government will either have the congress or BJP. There can be no independent third front without support of either one party. You may find a validation in upcoming state legislative election results.

 

So should we be mute bystanders or try to bring down the bigger evil?

 

We are a liberal party and respect the right of others to have alternate view points. We would like to have sufficient empathy to recognize where people are coming from, without having to necessarily agree with them. While we may have a divergence of opinions on the efficacy of certain views, we don't make value judgments as purists on the individuals or parties holding those views. Our approach is of constructive engagement.  Ultimately we must learn to live and work together. Calling someone names is usually not conducive to getting the other to listen. We recognize that our philosophy of citizen centric governance does not have sufficient traction in the current political construct.  Hence we need to find ways of impacting others to move towards our common goal. Engagement is not alignment.  Our engagement can be issue based from across the political spectrum.  It does not imply deviation from our core beliefs. Rather than focusing on the negatives of others, we would like to work with their positives so that a virtuous cycle is created. The debate on communalism and secularism is far wide and open and infect every political party seems to be playing communal political vote bank on one or more occasions. 

 

Your indignation is well understood. Lok Satta will always commit itself to bringing about conditions that facilitate positive change. 

 

Interestingly Lok Satta has been labeled so far agent of Congress by many purists as they felt that even working with people in power for specific legislations like Right to information, Local Courts Bill, Judicial Commission, Lok Pal, Public Service Delivery Bill and 120th Constitutional Amendments etc amount's to supporting corrupt and divisive congress.

 

Lok Satta Party has called upon people not to excuse but teach a lesson to the UPA which in its 10-year rule has destroyed the economy, perpetuated poverty and indulged in corruption and posed a threat to the federal character of the nation. While China has created 20 crore jobs in the last 20 years, India has created a mere 20 lakh jobs in the same period, although 1.2 crore people are joining the ranks of the unemployed every year. UPA has completely failed to address the growing unemployment problem.

 

We today stand against Congress. Bringing it down is a national priority. If you too agree with this, then perhaps we continue to work on some common ground.

 

I hope you will reconsider. Please drop me a note if you still wish to unsubscribe.

 

Regards

 

Unquote

 
 

 




--

Regards,

Surendra Srivastava
Volunteer - Lok Satta Aandolan
Tel: +91 22 2377 2279 Email: sure...@loksatta.org.in , 
URL: www.surendrasrivastava.com
The Answer to "Bad Politics" is "Good Politics"  Not "No Politics"  - Dr. JP, Lok Satta Aandolan
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Chandra Jain

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Dec 8, 2013, 2:30:36 AM12/8/13
to PDJainGr...@yahoogroups.com, IITD 1967, Sumati Vijaya Jain, Somnath Bharti, PANIIT-Disc...@yahoogroups.com, panii...@googlegroups.com, paniitac...@googlegroups.com
We now have the LEADS for all the 70 seats - this is pretty much the final tally as the count is almost complete.

BJP       33
AAP      26
CONG    8
Others    3

AAP has the largest share of votes - more than 32%.

We now have the LEADS for all the 70 seats. This is pretty close to my prediction. I had put in a bit too much importance to Congress Vote Bank which now stands totally decimated. It is also evident from Arvind's Vote Share of about 60% from New Delhi against Shiela who has conceded defeat & resigned.

ALT 1 : In the present scenario, BJP has not won the majority - but if 3 others join them, it would be BJP+ govt & AAP would be the opposition. That would be a perfect situation - let the raw AAP team learn the ropes of Governance as a strong & vigilant opposition for some time & form the govt after the next elections in Delhi, maybe alongwith the 2014 parliamentary elctions or maybe later.

ALT 2 :There is another possibility - BJP may not muster the 36 figure. AAP + CONG + Others can make it to the half-way figure of 36 & this combination can form the govt. Even though AAP does not want a coalition with CONG; but CONG would be ready & willing to support AAP to keep BJP out. Would AAP be ready to form govt (Arvind trounces Shiela &  was the No 1 CM joice in pre-election polls) with only outside support from CONG?

What should AAP be doing in this hung assembly scenario?
--
Chandra k Jain
India
call: 93124 39464 .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On Sun, Dec 8, 2013 at 11:01 AM, Chandra Jain <chandr...@gmail.com> wrote:

PD Ahuja

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Dec 8, 2013, 3:23:12 AM12/8/13
to Chandra Jain, PDJainGr...@yahoogroups.com, IITD 1967, Sumati Vijaya Jain, Somnath Bharti, PANIIT-Disc...@yahoogroups.com, panii...@googlegroups.com, paniitac...@googlegroups.com
I feel that AAP should support BJP and be a part of  Govt. In this way it would be able keep a check on corruption if any and also provide better governance in the larger interest of Delhi and the country.
 
PD Ahuja



On Sunday, December 8, 2013, Chandra Jain wrote:
We now have the LEADS for all the 70 seats - this is pretty much the final tally as the count is almost complete.

BJP       33
AAP      26
CONG    8
Others    3

AAP has the largest share of votes - more than 32%.

We now have the LEADS for all the 70 seats. This is pretty close to my prediction. I had put in a bit too much importance to Congress Vote Bank which now stands totally decimated. It is also evident from Arvind's Vote Share of about 60% from New Delhi against Shiela who has conceded defeat & resigned.

ALT 1 : In the present scenario, BJP has not won the majority - but if 3 others join them, it would be BJP+ govt & AAP would be the opposition. That would be a perfect situation - let the raw AAP team learn the ropes of Governance Rees as a strong & vigilant opposition for some time & form the govt after the next elections in Delhi, t  alongwith the 2014 parliamentary elctions or maybe later.ert
Rt 
ALT 2 :There is another possibility - BJP may not muster the d keep a check36 figure. AAP + CONG + Others can make it to the half-way figure of art o36 country& this combination can form the govt. Even though AAP does not want a coalition with CONG; but CONGf  would be ready & willing to support AAP to keep BJP out. Would AAP be ready to form govt (Arvind trounces Shiela &  was the No 1 CM joice in pre-election polls) ck on with only outside support from CONG?

What should AAP be doing in this hung assembly scenario?
--
Chandra k Jain
India for AAP
call: 93124 39464 .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On Sun, Dec 8, 2013 at 11:01 AM, Chandra Jain <chandr...@gmail.com> wrote:

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Chandra Jain <chandr...@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, Dec 7, 2013 at 11:30 PM
Subject: DELHI ELECTION RESULTS
To: "PANIIT-Disc...@yahoogroups.com" <PANIIT-Disc...@yahoogroups.com>, "panii...@googlegroups.com" <panii...@googlegroups.com>, IITD 1967 <iitdba...@yahoogroups.com>, "PanIITAc...@googlegroups.com" <paniitac...@googlegroups.com>, pravin purang <pravin...@gmail.com>


I will venture to make a prediction re DELHI - it may be a wild guess, an educated study or maybe just a hunch :
                                      OPTIMISTIC
AAP         15 + 2 Seats      25 + 2  

Congress  15 + 2               20 + 2

BJP          30 + 2               35 +  2

Arvind will win New Delhi seat with 35 + 2% votes, Shiela 30 + 2 % & Vijendra 30+ 2 %.

Arvind will become the CM after a lot of haggling, pushing-pulling - whatever may be the election result (unless BJP gets an abs majority). Congress is OUT of power in Delhi..

I hope Arvind steps down from his idealism & does not force a re-election in case of hung assembly.
He has to be pragmatic about it all - it was fine to make pre-election announcements of no coalition to show confidence 7 instill confidence in supporters - a great election strategy - but after the results, one has to be pragmatic - it would not be a compromise but a practical decision.

Anyone else wants to make a guess?
--
Chandra k Jain
India
call: 93124 39464
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


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