Solar activity, Major flares

[Dave B.]

Yesterday afternoon there was an X7 Class flare and this morning an X9
Class flare, being the biggest of this Cycle. The  spot group producing
the flares are aimed at us. The second one appears to produce the
stronger CME. Forecasters are predicting impact of the second on 6
October ( I believe it is GMT.) The geo storm is expected to be G3
level. The first CME may also start a geo storm in the next day or so.

I would suggest watching spaceweather.com over the next few days. The
ACE solar wind speed plot will show a step increase of speed when the
CME's hit. Also, there is an AU oval plot that will give a clue where
the AU oval is located. Last month there was a strong red crescent on
the plot that produced AU for the PNW.

Timing is important. AU in the middle of the night or during the day
will not find many operators looking north. OK, early risers may also
catch some action too. Should we be fortunate and it happens late
afternoon and evening, should find stations on (I hope.) A strong AU
will be good for CW/SSB & Q65 on 6M. Should conditions be strong on 6,
also check 2M. Those new to VHF AU will find a very distinct sound to
signals. Be sure to point in the direction of the AU. Generally NE from
here, but can be north. Also, be aware of another mode: AU-E. This will
be a clear signal that rides around the perimeter of the AU curtain. My
experience has been that it is like a waveguide, very little signal
attenuation.

We may be fortunate in that a cold front is supposed to pass by the PNW
Friday, so those in the PNW may get a chance for a visible AU over the
weekend.

As we are getting into the fall season and have had strong solar flux
numbers lately, there may also be opportunities for SA & the Pacific
stations. One just has to be alert to both geo magnetic activity and QSO
lines on DX Maps.

Good luck to all.

     de Dave, N7DB CN85uj

--
David Bernhardt
Boring, OR