Congestion charlatans!!
Andreae Downs
Exposing the Congestion Cost Charlatans. The invaluable and inimitable Todd Litman of the Victoria Transportation Institute once again does the homework to show how phony and contrived are the claims of the Texas Transportation Institute, and others who claim that traffic congestion costs us untold millions of hours and billions of dollars. Every year, they tell us traffic is getting worse and costing us more--even when travel times are down, and traffic congestion has lessened, largely due to post-pandemic changes in travel behavior. In his usual workman-like fashion, Litman dismantles these false claims. He notes three leading ways the congestion-costing industry cooks the books:
The “Speed Compliance” Scam. Most studies calculate “delay” by comparing actual traffic to an economically absurd baseline: the free-flow speed of a 2:00 AM joyride. In reality, much of what TTI calls “congestion cost” is actually just speed compliance. By their math, a driver doing 55 mph in a 55 mph zone instead of 70 mph is “delayed” if the road was empty enough to speed.
The Off-Peak Mirage. They claim congestion is exploding, but the reported “growth” isn’t caused by peak-hour traffic getting slower; it’s caused by off-peak traffic getting faster. When mid-day speeds increase, the “gap” between peak and off-peak appears wider, allowing the industry to claim congestion has worsened even if your morning commute hasn’t changed in a decade.
Exaggerating the Pain. These reports rely on “value of time” estimates that treat every minute of a commute like a lost billable hour, while exaggerating fuel and emission impacts. The reports conceal the much larger loss of time due to longer travel distances in sprawling, car-dependent areas, and ignore the effects of induced demand, by calling for highway expansions—like the Interstate Bridge Replacement—that only induce more driving and restart the cycle.
Meanwhile, the reports almost entirely ignore the one policy--road pricing--that’s been shown to actually reduce congestion. But the purpose of these reports isn’t to shed light, or build understanding, it’s to rationalize throwing more money at highway building. No one should be fooled.