Fwd: The Week Observed: May 1, 2026

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Andreae Downs

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May 3, 2026, 11:44:18 AMMay 3
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If you don't subscribe to this, you probably should. The traffic projection numbers game is laid out clearly--and it trickles down to the local level:

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From: City Observatory <cityobs...@substack.com>
Date: Fri, May 1, 2026 at 9:24 AM
Subject: The Week Observed: May 1, 2026
To: <andrea...@gmail.com>


What City Observatory did this week
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What City Observatory did this week

Eight reasons the Interstate Bridge Project shouldn’t and can’t legally go forward. After six years of deliberation and $270 million in consulting fees, the Interstate Bridge Replacement (IBR) program has finally released its 10,000-page Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS). But far from providing a roadmap for construction, the document reveals a project that is legally insolvent, physically truncated, and built on a foundation of flawed “Highway Department math.”

  • Half a project: The FEIS evaluates a massive $15.5 billion build-out, but ODOT and WSDOT only plan to build a $7.6 billion “core.” By leaving out the light rail and highway connections used to justify the project’s environmental benefits, the agencies have invalidated their own environmental impact statement.

  • Fiscal Insolvency: Federal law requires projects to be part of a “fiscally constrained” plan. With both DOTs effectively broke and no guarantee of future funding, starting a project they cannot afford to finish is a direct violation of federal transportation regulations.

  • The “Independent Utility” requirement: Federal rules prohibit “half-built” projects. A bridge that ends in a bottleneck or a light rail line that stops 90 feet in the air above the Vancouver waterfront lacks “independent utility”—meaning it’s a billion-dollar expenditure that provides no stand-alone benefit.

  • The Light Rail Legal Fiction: To bypass state land use laws, the IBR claims a “Land Use Final Order” (LUFO) intended for light rail. However, with transit construction likely delayed until after 2030, the project is a highway expansion masquerading as a transit project to dodge legal scrutiny.

  • Bogus Traffic Projections: The FEIS claims traffic will grow at 1% annually, yet official counts show I-5 traffic has actually fallen to 1990s levels (127,000 vehicles/day). The agencies are suppressing “Investment Grade” data that would prove the bridge is being over-engineered for demand that doesn’t exist.

  • Negative Benefit-Cost Ratio: U.S. DOT grants require a project’s benefits to outweigh its costs. With the price tag exploding to $15 billion while benefits remain capped at roughly $4 billion, the IBR no longer meets basic federal cost-effectiveness standards.

  • A Violation of Climate Law: State and regional policies mandate a 10% reduction in driving, but the IBR is predicated on a 25% increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). The FEIS fails to disclose this fundamental conflict with Oregon’s legally adopted climate goals.

  • Consultant Capture: Over half a billion dollars has been billed by consultants for a project that project director Greg Johnson calls “basically the same” as the failed CRC. The current plan extends construction to 2050, ensuring a “forever project” that serves the billing cycles of engineering firms rather than the public interest.

Biotech: Still Clustered after all these years. Everyone has long known that three metro areas dominate the US biotech industry: San Francisco, Boston and San Diego. Yet for decades, large cities around the country, most which have a major medical university, and research facilities, have been trying to spin biotech research into pharmaceutical businesses and high paid jobs. The best evidence is that those efforts have almost entirely failed to alter the fundamental geography of US biotech. In 2002, when we undertook a study of biotech clustering published by the Brookings Institution, those three metro areas accounted for 63.9 percent of all US venture capital investment in life sciences firms. Now, more than two decades later, those same three metropolitan areas still account for exactly the same share of venture capital investment: 63.9 percent.

The remarkable stability of that leadership is a testament to the powerful competitive advantages of being located in one of these clusters. Firms are vastly more likely to find good ideas, be able to easily assemble top-notch teams of researchers, managers, and marketing and regulatory affairs experts, link up with venture capital firms, and increase their chances of success by being located in an established industry cluster. In addition, the fact that these three centers continue to dominate, even though they are in some of the most expensive housing markets in the US, and two states (Califforina and Massachusetts) with relatively high taxes, signals that cost factors are at best secondary to the busienss advantages that stem from locating in a cluster.

Must Read

The political consequences of a failing boondoggle may come down soon. A primary election in suburban Washington County may hinge on the utter failure of a multi-billion dollar boondoggle. For years, long-serving State Rep. Susan McLain has been an unflinching advocate for the now $15 billion Interstate Bridge Project.. But in its endorsement for her primary opponent, Portland area alt-weekly Willamette Week excoriated her record on the IBR boondoggle:

Worse, McLain co-chairs the Joint Committee on the Interstate 5 Bridge—perhaps the only project going worse than the ODOT funding package. In less than four years, as the Oregon Journalism Project revealed, the estimated cost of the project has more than doubled, from $6 billion to $13.6 billion. The replacement bridge may never span the Columbia River, but McLain appears to be in denial. She says the project has been “successful” because “we’ve met every target and goal we’re supposed to.” She refuses to concede costs have ballooned, or admit that her fellow committee members were outraged at project officials for keeping the new numbers under wraps. Discussing the bridge with her is like watching The Office’s Michael Scott drive his car into a lake on the instructions of his GPS.

McLain is a long serving incumbent; it remains to be seen whether the race will turn on this issue or others. Vox populi.

Using outdated and simply wrong traffic forecasts to justify highway widening in New York. Streetsblog Empire State reports on how, once again, highway agencies are using “hockey stick” models of future travel demand, and ignoring the steady erosion of traffic growth rates to justify spending billions on highway widening projects. In this case, the NY state Department of Transportation used 15-year-old traffic models to justify its plan to expand Rt. 17 in Orange and Sullivan counties — ignoring a 10-year drop in traffic and overemphasizing a few busy summer weekends, according to report prepared by traffic expert Norm Marshall. Streetsblog reports:

A central pillar of the state’s argument for widening the road is the Orange County Travel Demand Model, which Marshall found to be fundamentally flawed. The model calculates travel behavior using a survey conducted in 2010 and 2011, and therefore doesn’t account for changed driving habits in the last 15 years, including a sharp decline in driving among young people. While the state’s projections are based on the assumption of a traffic boom, the actual 10-year trend for the corridor is down, not up, Marshall said.

Highway agencies cling to their outdated views that traffic can only increase, and that expanding capacity is the only way to avoid gridlock, even as traffic growth rates slow--and are likely to slow even more due to recent fuel price increases. They also routinely ignore the effects of induced demand, in which expanding highway capacity only generates more sprawling development patterns and more car dependent communities.

One more stab at convincing housing supply sketptics. Welcome to the fight for economic literacy, Milan Singh. Writing, appropriately enough at “The Argument” Singh once again takes up the battle to show skeptics that the only way to lower rents and housing prices is to build more housing. He takes on a common claim, made by many, that new housing is always associated with higher rents, therefore, the new housing must be causing the higher rents. He writes, exasperated:

The Georgetown report is pretty sloppy: The authors didn’t even try to do causal inference; they just point out that cities with a lot of new housing units are also the ones where rent is going up. No shit. Developers choosing to build new units isn’t exogenous to demand shocks! That is, developers don’t build in a vacuum. The very reasons they choose to build new units are directly related to the reasons a place is attractive to new entrants: a new employer moves in, a transit line opens up, crime drops, the schools improve, a location becomes fashionable, and so on.

The essential point here is that when demand for urban living goes up, or is high, rents will tend to rise as well, and the only way to bring them down is for supply to catch up. Singh goes past the simple explanation to dig into the latest literature about supply increases and moving chains, and we hope a few more skeptics get the message. But no doubt the argument will go on.

The real conspiracy: one-hour cities. The idea of promoting walkable and livable urban neighborhoods has been under attack in many quarters. Some see 15-minute living and low-traffic neighborhoods as a kind of globalist conspiracy to restrict freedom, directly, presumably by some international cabal. Now comes the Urban Truth Collective--aka Grant Ennis, Brent Toderian, Tom Flood--to turn the tables on the conspiracy theorists.

The truth, they argue, is that the real conspiracy--one that has succeeded wildly--is to saddle us in living in one-hour cities, car dependent places that sap our time and money, endanger our health, increase loneliness and wreck the environment. There clearly are groups that have lobbied to block better urban living:

The one-hour city probably does not involve a bunch of evil men in suits conspiring around a big, sinister table. Short of audio-video footage of said meetings, or extensive documentation, we’ll never know for sure. But we do know from extensive evidence that there is a collection of aligned interests that make a lot of money from people driving more. These actors have lobbied for laws that make it harder to get to shops, businesses, schools, restaurants, and government and medical services near to where people live.

It’s a bit tongue-in-cheek to respond in kind, but there’s more than a grain of truth. And you have to fight a narrative with a better, more compelling and more truthful narrative. We should indeed be talking about the conspiracy that has forced us to live so far from one another and the things we want to do, who it actually benefits, and what might be done to create different and better options for living.

The Week Observed is City Observatory’s weekly newsletter. Every Friday, we give you a quick review of the most important articles, blog posts, and scholarly research on American cities.

Our goal is to help you keep up with—and participate in—the ongoing debate about how to create prosperous, equitable, and livable cities, without having to wade through the hundreds of thousands of words produced on the subject every week by yourself.

If you have ideas for making The Week Observed better, we'd love to hear them! Let us know at jcort...@cityobservatory.org or on Twitter at @cityobs.

 
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