Envoy's Upbeat Tone Glosses Over Baghdad's Turmoil
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September 11, 2007
News Analysis
Envoy's Upbeat Tone Glosses Over Baghdad's Turmoil
By ALISSA J. RUBIN and DAMIEN CAVE
BAGHDAD, Sept. 10 - The assessment that Ryan C. Crocker, the American
ambassador to Iraq, gave to Congress on Monday left unmentioned or
glossed over some of the most troubling developments of the past nine
months. His portrait of Iraq did not include many of the signs of
deepening divisions between Sunni Arabs and Shiites and within each
sect, which have raised fears among many Iraqis that their country
will fracture further.
His testimony did not address the continuing wave of internal
displacements, only glancingly mentioned Baghdad's starved
infrastructure and said almost nothing about the government's
inability or unwillingness to deliver services to other parts of the
country as well.
His description of the growth of provincial power neglected to mention
its darker side: Some provinces are becoming rival power centers and
could as easily contribute to the country's disintegration as to its
stability.
Clearly the challenge before Mr. Crocker was immense. Unlike his
military counterpart, Gen. David H. Petraeus, who narrowed his purview
to quantifiable security measures, the ambassador had the task of
making a coherent case for extending a substantial American presence
though political advances had amounted to little more than initial
talks among groups with a history of armed clashes and broken
promises.
As he has since he arrived, Mr. Crocker tried to change the terms of
the debate, suggesting that Congress should focus on the informal ways
that Iraq was improving, rather than specific benchmarks or deadlines.
He also sought, as he had before, to force lawmakers to consider the
dangers that would likely unfold if they acceded to the popular
demands for a speedy withdrawal, and he sought to put Iraq's struggles
in historical context.
Mr. Crocker's conclusions were measured and far from rosy. He admitted
that he was "frustrated every day I am in Iraq." But he made a point
of being specific about the more upbeat developments and left vague
those that were negative.
His tone contrasted with the tone of his remarks at a recent round
table for reporters in Baghdad at which he described his dismay at the
city's disintegration.
"What's happened over the last couple of years is stunning," he said,
describing his visits to neighborhoods that he last saw in 2003. "What
has happened to middle-class, upper-class neighborhoods - the
violence, the population shifts, the displacement, the tens of
thousands of Iraqis that have been killed. You're just not going to
overcome that in a few weeks or indeed in a few months."
His conclusions then and on Monday were the same: If stability is to
come, it will take years. He said that Iraq was on the road to
progress.
Yet many Iraqis have told reporters they still do not feel secure,
despite General Petraeus's charts showing drops in violence. Internal
displacement has doubled since the "surge" began, reaching 1.1 million
people nationwide, according to the International Office of Migration
and the Iraqi Red Crescent Society.
Shiite militias have continued their steady march to force Sunni Arabs
from an ever-expanding area of Baghdad and surrounding villages. That
has been compounded by mass roundups of Sunni Arabs suspected of being
insurgents, who are held for months in dangerously crowded detention
centers without trial or charges. Shiite judges concede that 40
percent to 50 percent of those detainees are innocent.
Meanwhile, fighting within sects is on the rise.
Shiites have sunk into a violent struggle between factions loyal to
rival clerics, Abdel Aziz Hakim and Moktada al-Sadr. Two provincial
governors in the Shiite south were assassinated in August, in Muthanna
and Diwaniya Provinces. Both were members of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi
Council, led by Mr. Hakim.
Assassinations and other attacks have persisted for months in the
south, including the outbreak of fighting in Karbala barely two weeks
ago between factions loyal to the clerics. Mr. Crocker interpreted the
fighting, which left at least 52 people dead, as a catalyst to a cease-
fire by Mr. Sadr's forces.
However, Mr. Sadr's word has rarely proved effective or lasting. He
issued a similar command in February at the start of the American
troop increase in Baghdad, and after a hiatus of a few weeks, the
killings of Sunni Arabs resumed, although at a lower level, and so did
the sectarian purging of neighborhoods.
Among Sunni Arabs, the divide splits those in Parliament who were
early participants in the political process and the tribal sheiks in
Sunni-majority areas, notably Anbar Province, who have recently become
American allies and rivals for power.
This struggle adds yet more uncertainty to the fraught political
situation. Power has essentially shifted in a number of directions,
geographically and socially. Some provinces have become dominions unto
themselves; other provinces are impoverished, unable to get Baghdad to
deliver resources that the provinces can not procure themselves.
In Diyala Province recently, American troops had to travel to Baghdad
on their own to demand food for the area's starving families after the
government did not deliver it. Officials in Baghdad "tell you
everything you want to hear," said John M. Jones, head of the
provincial reconstruction team in Baquba. "Putting into action is
another thing."
Those provinces that are doing well do so in part by keeping
electricity from the national grid and making exclusive deals with
neighboring countries. Mr. Crocker interpreted the nascent interest in
particular by Sunni majority provinces in having more control over
their affairs as "a budding debate about federalism among Iraq's
leaders."
But Iraq, the central government is an object of scorn and ridicule.
Mr. Crocker mentioned only glancingly the government's failure to
deliver needed services, focusing primarily on Baghdad's lack of
electricity.
However, electricity is a problem in many parts of Diyala, Diwaniya
and other areas. Health services have steadily declined because many
doctors, along with a broad swath of the educated middle class, have
fled the country. "It's the government of nothing," said Adel al-
Subeihawi, a tribal leader on Sadr City 's eastern edge. "No oil. No
water. No electricity."
Crippled by corruption and inefficiency, departments in many
ministries are all but private fiefs. While there are dedicated
government workers and administrators, they face the longest of odds
in trying to deliver services. In some areas, militias control the
distribution of gas for cooking as well as ice for refrigeration.
The loss of faith in the government has driven Iraqis to militias,
tribes and nongovernment organizations like Mr. Sadr's.
"Always, when the government becomes weak, that means the tribes and
militias become strong," Mr. Subeihawi said. "The Americans and the
government are in one valley. The militias are in another valley
entirely. They don't see each other."