Stratfor: U.K.: Second Explosive Device, Poor Tradecraft
morr...@mailinator.com
June 29, 2007 20 49 GMT
Summary
Two car bombs found in central London on June 29 were part of a single
militant plot, according to British police. Although the discovery of
two devices within hours of each other indicates that a potentially
widespread plot was being carried out, the tradecraft of the plotters
practically ensured the devices would be found.
Analysis
London police on June 29 confirmed that a suspicious car in a West End
parking garage contained a device similar to one found earlier in
central London. The second device was found in a car parked illegally
on Cockspur Street, which runs between the Haymarket district -- where
the first device was found -- and Trafalgar Square. Traffic police
ticketed the car and then towed it to an impounded vehicle garage on
Park Lane, where staff noticed a strong odor of fuel coming from the
car.
After the device in Haymarket was found, the impoundment garage's
staff contacted police about the fumes coming from the second car.
Police responded and discovered a second device, which explosives
ordnance personnel also rendered safe.
London's Metropolitan Police said the device found at Haymarket
appeared to be designed for remote detonation. The attack was probably
aborted during the botched placement, however. The plotters had all
night to detonate the second device, but failed to do so either
because it was moved or because it failed to function as intended.
Like the incident in Haymarket, the device planted on Cockspur Street
showed signs of being planted by an amateur rather than a serious
militant. Parking the car illegally was sure to bring attention to it,
just as the erratic driving and subsequent collision with a trash bin
drew attention to the car in Haymarket. The bad parking job caused the
car to be moved away from its intended target. In addition, the
excessive fumes emanating from the car helped give it away, just as
occurred in the Haymarket incident.
Better planning and a cursory look at where one could and could not
park on Cockspur Street might have saved the bomber's plans.
Furthermore, had the devices been better constructed and not emitted
excessive fumes, they could have escaped notice. Both devices, based
on their construction and initial placement, appear to have been
intended to cause maximum casualties without aiming for a specific
group or target.
Hours before the first device was found in Haymarket, a jihadist
Internet forum posted a notice saying London would be attacked June
29. The warning of the attack was left by a regular user of the forum
who goes by the name Osama al-Hazeen on the chat room Al Hesbah.
Though such warnings should be taken seriously, the tradecraft of the
individual or individuals who constructed and planted the two devices
found in London bear the hallmarks of amateurs, rather than
sophisticated militants. This does not mean, however that only two
devices were deployed, or that any others that have been deployed will
not be better concealed or will not function better.
Should the plotter or plotters remain at large, they can learn from
their mistakes. The poor tradecraft used in the design and
construction of the devices, however, suggest they did not do much to
prevent leaving forensic evidence behind. The British will probably be
able to use this evidence to track them down.
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