Russian Nuclear Pact Stalls

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Russian Nuclear Pact Stalls
Tensions Prompt U.S. to Reconsider Proliferation Agreement
By JAY SOLOMON
August 23, 2008; Page A1

WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration's landmark nuclear-cooperation
agreement with Russia is unlikely to gain passage before President
George W. Bush leaves office, the latest sign of how Russia's
offensive in Georgia has roiled the international scene.

The accord, which Mr. Bush and Russia's then-President Vladimir Putin
signed in 2007, would allow for greater U.S.-Russian cooperation in
developing proliferation-resistant reactors and nuclear fuel banks.
The White House saw the pact as enhancing post-Cold War strategic
cooperation between Washington and Moscow on issues ranging from
weapons proliferation to alternative energy supplies.

The Bush administration initially presented a bill to Congress in May
in the hope it could be passed into law by September.

An administration official familiar with National Security Council
deliberations said Friday the White House is now "reviewing all
options regarding Russia," as a result of the Georgia conflict,
including its support for the nuclear-cooperation initiative. "It's no
longer business as usual," the official said.

In addition, leading congressional officials said there's little
chance of the nuclear pact being approved by Congress before the
current session ends, a result of rising opposition to the bill among
key lawmakers in the House of Representatives and Senate.

Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware, chairman of the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee, said this week he's no longer going to push the
bill during the current session, after concluding a fact-finding trip
to Georgia. The Democrat, who has been mentioned as a possible vice
presidential candidate, said he'd initially been inclined to favor the
pact.

"Russia's actions have already erased the possibility of advancing
legislative efforts to promote U.S.-Russian partnership...including an
agreement to allow for increased collaboration with Russia on nuclear
energy production," Sen. Biden said in a written statement.

The deal's uncertain future is the latest example of how the Russian-
Georgian conflict has changed the international landscape. Earlier
this month, the Bush administration and Poland reached an agreement to
base part of a planned U.S. missile shield on Polish soil, a move long
in the works that sped up as a result of the conflict.

The delay also represents a blow to the Bush administration's anti-
proliferation efforts, which are a cornerstone of its attempt to
better secure the international supply of nuclear materials. At the
same time, the White House is struggling to complete a similar deal
with India.
MORE

[Go to graphic.]
• Vote: How would you gauge the U.S. response?
• Russian Troops Remain Deep Within Georgian Territory
• A Visit to a South Ossetian Village Illuminates Georgians' Views
• Timeline: Troubled Neighbors
• Photo Essay: Conflict in Georgia
• Complete coverage

Earlier this month, a long-simmering conflict between Russia and
Georgia over two Georgian provinces burst into open conflict, in which
Russian forces battered their opponents before agreeing to a
ceasefire. Western governments, who to varying degrees decried
Moscow's actions, have since complained that the Russians aren't
abiding by the terms of the agreement, but have few options to address
the situation.

To be sure, current and former U.S. officials say that cooperation
between Washington and Moscow on issues ranging from weapons
proliferation and energy security could still move ahead, once the
conflict in Georgia is resolved. Indeed, they say the Bush
administration's nuclear-cooperation pact could be picked up by a
successive administration. And some are even calling for an enhanced
U.S.-Russia dialogue over key national-security issues, once the
Georgia crisis subsides.

"We need to develop a solid framework" for a renewed dialogue with
Russia, said Thomas Pickering, a former U.S. ambassador to Moscow, at
a conference this week. As a model, he cited the Bush administration's
current high-level strategic dialogue with China, headed by Treasury
Secretary Henry Paulson.

Even before Russia's battles with Georgia, the nuclear-cooperation
agreement had sparked a sharp debate inside Washington over the future
path of U.S.-Russian relations.

The Bush administration and other supporters of the accord viewed its
implementation as essential to nurturing Moscow as the West's partner
on key strategic issues, such as denying Iran nuclear weapons. They
also believed U.S.-Russian nuclear cooperation could serve as the
cornerstone of a new international nonproliferation regime.

The White House has sought to persuade developing nations against
mastering a nuclear-fuel cycle in their pursuit of alternative energy
sources due to related risk of weapons proliferation. The U.S. sought
instead to develop an international nuclear fuel bank these nations
could draw upon. And Russia, with among the world's most advanced
nuclear-energy industries, was seen as potentially hosting the fuel
bank. Fuel banks store the processed nuclear fuels that can be used in
electricity-generating power plants.

Russia also had high hopes for the accord and the impact it could have
on its nuclear industry, which had been one of the most advanced under
the Soviet system but later found itself short of funding and orders.

In recent years, the Kremlin has set up a new state-run company to
expand the nuclear industry, seeking out contracts to build and
service plants outside Russia, as well as making a major new
investment in Russia's own civilian-nuclear program. The industry is
one of several the Russian authorities are promoting in an effort to
wean the economy away from its dependence on oil and gas.

Opponents of the nuclear accord have argued Russia can't be trusted as
a partner, citing Moscow's strategic ties to rogue states such as Iran
and Syria. Moscow is currently assisting Tehran in building a light-
water nuclear reactor in the Iranian city of Bushehr and has also
supplied Iran with conventional weapons systems in recent years.

These critics say Moscow's actions in Georgia clearly undercut the
arguments of some U.S. strategists who've sought to define the new
Russian government as a potentially benign player on the international
stage.

"As goes the nuclear deal, as goes U.S.-Russia relations," said Henry
Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, a Washington
think tank that opposes the Russia agreement. "By walking away from
the agreement, the administration will be less willing to make excuses
for Moscow."

Still, many U.S. national security strategists say any U.S. effort to
engage in a new Cold War with Russia risks further destabilizing a
global order already facing rising threats from conflicts in Iraq,
Afghanistan and the wider Middle East. They note the Kremlin could
seek to further undercut U.S. efforts to promote peace agreements in
the Middle East and to end the nuclear programs of Iran and North
Korea.

In a troubling sign, U.S. officials point to Syria's call this week
for enhanced military cooperation with Russia. President Bashar Assad
met with his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, in Moscow and
praised the Kremlin's actions in Georgia as a strike against Western
hegemony. The Russians, in turn, said they were prepared to provide
new weapons systems to Damascus.

"We have always said to the Russians that these sales should not go
forward, that they don't contribute to regional stability," State
Department spokesman Robert Wood said Friday. "I urge them not to go
through with these sales."