Double bind: The Republicans & immigration

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By Max J. Castro

Saddled with a president with dismal approval ratings and an unpopular
war, Republicans don't need any more problems. Yet immigration --
which pits the Party's business elites against the most xenophobic
sector of its electoral base -- threatens to become an even more
divisive and destructive issue than Iraq.

The upcoming Congressional debate on immigration reform will unleash a
torrent of invective against the proposed law and against the
"illegals" that critics say would be granted amnesty if the bill is
approved.

Most of the vitriol will come from Republicans, despite the fact that
George W. Bush backs the proposal, as does Senator John McCain -- who
helped craft it and is one of the leading candidates for the 2008
Republican presidential nomination.

But it is not just in Congress that immigration is sure to pit
Republican against Republican; the issue is likely to play a growing
role in the race for the presidential nomination. Because the two
leading candidates, Rudolph Giuliani and John McCain, are among the
Party's more moderate voices on immigration, many of the myriad
candidates trying desperately to catch up will seek to score points by
sounding tough on illegal immigration. One can foresee a scenario in
which five Republican candidates -- Mitt Romney, Duncan Hunter, Tom
Tancredo, Newt Gingrich, and Fred Thompson -- would vie for the
nomination based on who can speak in a harsher tone about illegal
immigration.

The rhetoric in Congress and on the campaign trail will once more
expose the ugly xenophobic streak in the Republican Party and further
alienate Latinos, with potentially devastating political consequences
in 2008 and far beyond. GOP strategists are warning about the danger,
but candidates with no other issue to wield are not likely to listen.

The Republican dilemma runs deeper than the contradiction between the
ideological base and the financial foundation of the Party or the rift
between right-wing populists and the business wing. If Republicans
take a strongly anti-immigration stance, they are sure to anger
Latinos, the fastest growing sector of the electorate, who will line
up solidly against the Republican Party for years or decades. On the
other hand, if they take an inclusive approach, the GOP will be
empowering a community that leans solidly Democratic and is very
likely to continue to do so into the future, if for no other reason
than the fact that Republican policies consistently favor the
wealthier and more privileged strata of society.

The Republicans' best hope of escaping from the horns of this dilemma
may be riding on the fate of the immigration reform bill. If it
passes, the GOP will be able to claim that it was under a Republican
president and with a strong assist from Republican leaders in Congress
that over 10 million unauthorized immigrants were put on a path toward
legalization.

Yet the best-laid plans of Republican moderates may be thwarted by
extremists in the Party. For the Democrats, that would be the best-
case scenario politically, in effect, for the bill to go down to
defeat, despite their own best efforts, as a result of Republican
intransigence.

Such a Machiavellian analysis might seem, at first blush, to be
indifferent to the plight of millions of immigrants who would be able
to come out of the shadows if the immigration reform bill passes in
its current form. Yet, there are so many punitive and onerous
provisions in this bill that it may be in the best interest of current
and future immigrants if this version fails and the issue of
immigration reform is taken up by a future Congress, less Republican
and less beholden to xenophobic sentiments in the electorate.