Covid-19

[William Stanbury]

Members,

Good afternoon, I found this "cartoon sketch" fairly appropriately thought-provoking with a pinch of humour?

Very best regards,

William Stanbury.

[Chris Evans]

To me it seems unlikely to provoke much thinking that hasn't already been done better, including frequently on this list, about such a bizarre use of statistics, well, of ratios!

If the world population is hitting 8bn shortly, if, say 10% of people got infected by this virus and 99% recovered but the other 1% died that's 8M deaths. If they happen fast and the infection spreads fast, and that has been one of the many complex statistical issues with cv-19, then that overwhelms health care systems, hospitals run out of oxygen, places run out of capacity simply to bury the dead (phase one coastal Ecuador had bodies in the streets and was not alone).  So given that challenge, and financial and other damage that such a pandemic threatens, it is surely not inappropriate for governments to intervene.  As anyone serious about medical statistics knows, this is a statistical issue because we don't know what the right answers are to balance the risks and restrictions and it's hard to find the data to start getting better ideas.  This is medical statistics at its most important, most tragic, most necessary... but people are working on it and John frequently offers us digests here that I have found "thought provoking".

I don't think any country has imposed true "house arrest" but the term quarantine comes from 40 days of ship arrest that has been international shipping law I think for a long time ... the idea that some are forced to sacrifice some liberties to try to slow the spread of, and perhaps minimise the death rate from, infectious diseases is hardly new and I honestly don't see anything funny, or new or interesting in this cartoon.  We have all been grappling with how any country, any of us, can know what's for the best in the trade off between restrictions and risk.  To me this feels in pretty weird taste and probably pretty disrespectful to the many who have lost people to the disease and to the many who have lost jobs and livelihoods and to the people who are trying to optimise our compromises and our data collection, hypothesising, modelling and, inevitably, having to make decisions that are certain to upset many whatever they decide.

I see a lot of people around the world who have had some constitutional rights to vote, to hold people to account, having this taken away from them at the moment and many never had that right ... that battle isn't about cv-19 but I sense that the cartoonist may be quite selective about who should have those constitutional rights.

Hey ho.  Sometimes I find my personal constitution is not up to just saying "weird!" and passing on.  Hey ho.

Chris

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Chris Evans (he/him) <ch...@psyctc.org> Visiting Professor, University of Sheffield <chris...@sheffield.ac.uk>
I do some consultation work for the University of Roehampton <chris...@roehampton.ac.uk> and other places
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I have "semigrated" to France, see:
   https://www.psyctc.org/pelerinage2016/semigrating-to-france/
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If you want an Emeeting, I am trying to keep them to Thursdays and my diary is at:
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Beware: French time, generally an hour ahead of UK.  

[John Whittington]

Chris, I personally almost completely agree with everything you write.

However, I also accept that there are contrary views.  You, I and probably most people feel that, in 2021, it is "unthinkable" that 'we' should allow resources such as you mention (healthcare, burial etc.) to be totally 'overwhelmed' (even though, a century or so ago we would probably have few other options to contemplate).  However, some others, not all of whom are stupid, crazy, irresponsible or 'heartless' do not necessarily take that view.  There are clearly many things things on  both sides of the equation to be considered (some of which have the potential to impact for many years to come) and opinions (even 'intelligent opinions') will differ as to where the balance should best be struck.

I suppose that I could be controversial (maybe even 'offensive' in some people's minds) as to ponder whether it might even be that most of us are not necessarily as objective, 'impassionate' and open-minded/flexible as we could be when it comes to thinking about things/options which, at first sight, are "unthinkable" and therefore do not even warrant thought?

Kind Regards,
John

To view this discussion on the web, visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/medstats/1830876346.7269021.1619451480661.JavaMail.zimbra%40psyctc.org .

John

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