Covid-19 Death Figures distorted by vaccination??
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John Whittington
Apr 26, 2021, 2:52:30 PM4/26/21
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The UK's official "28-day" and "60-day" Covid-19
death figures have never been ideal.
Both of them count (as a "Covid-19 Death") any death due to any cause which occurs within 28 (or 60) days of a positive Covid test.
The "28-day deaths" figures (those most widely 'headlined') will therefore fail to count 'true' Covid-19 deaths if the person takes more than 28 days (after positive test) to die, but will also include at least some deaths which actually had nothing to do with Covid (including trauma, heart attacks/strokes, cancer etc.) if it 'happens' that the patient had had a positive Covid test within 28 days of their death.
The "60-day deaths" figures will probably catch most true Covid deaths (few patients take more than 60 days to die from the disease), but will include a lot more deaths which actually had nothing at all to do with Covid.
However, we are being told that the vaccines not only reduce the risk of infection, but also considerably, perhaps even dramatically, reduce the risk of death in those who are infected. This presumably means that the "28-day deaths" figures (and, even more so, the 60-day ones) have, as vaccination has proceeded, included a progressively decreasing proportion of 'true Covid deaths', such that these official figures will have been increasingly over-estimating the true number of deaths due to Covid-19 infection.
Since the great majority of those at greatest risk of death from this disease have now been vaccinated, one imagines that this effect must already be quite pronounced, such that the (already very low) numbers of daily deaths we are currently hearing about are probably appreciably over-estimates (appreciably more so than in the past) the number of deaths actually due to Covid-19.
Is there anything wrong with my reasoning, and conclusions? If I'm roughly right, is there perhaps a need, as we move forward, for us to devise a more meaningful measure of 'actual Covid deaths'?
Kind Regards,
Both of them count (as a "Covid-19 Death") any death due to any cause which occurs within 28 (or 60) days of a positive Covid test.
The "28-day deaths" figures (those most widely 'headlined') will therefore fail to count 'true' Covid-19 deaths if the person takes more than 28 days (after positive test) to die, but will also include at least some deaths which actually had nothing to do with Covid (including trauma, heart attacks/strokes, cancer etc.) if it 'happens' that the patient had had a positive Covid test within 28 days of their death.
The "60-day deaths" figures will probably catch most true Covid deaths (few patients take more than 60 days to die from the disease), but will include a lot more deaths which actually had nothing at all to do with Covid.
However, we are being told that the vaccines not only reduce the risk of infection, but also considerably, perhaps even dramatically, reduce the risk of death in those who are infected. This presumably means that the "28-day deaths" figures (and, even more so, the 60-day ones) have, as vaccination has proceeded, included a progressively decreasing proportion of 'true Covid deaths', such that these official figures will have been increasingly over-estimating the true number of deaths due to Covid-19 infection.
Since the great majority of those at greatest risk of death from this disease have now been vaccinated, one imagines that this effect must already be quite pronounced, such that the (already very low) numbers of daily deaths we are currently hearing about are probably appreciably over-estimates (appreciably more so than in the past) the number of deaths actually due to Covid-19.
Is there anything wrong with my reasoning, and conclusions? If I'm roughly right, is there perhaps a need, as we move forward, for us to devise a more meaningful measure of 'actual Covid deaths'?
Kind Regards,
John
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Dr John Whittington,
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Mediscience Services
Fax: +44 (0) 1296 738893
Twyford Manor, Twyford, E-mail:
Joh...@mediscience.co.uk
Buckingham MK18 4EL,
UK
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