Minnesota Twins preview: 2012 expectations hinge on health

[Marty]

Minnesota Twins preview: 2012 expectations hinge on health
By John Shipley jshi...@pioneerpress.com TwinCities.com-Pioneer Press

 
FORT MYERS, Fla. - In a season that quickly devolved into parody, with enough subplots for a soap opera, they broke your hearts in 2011. Now the Minnesota Twins are back, asking for your fealty, your forgiveness and, at present, your faith.

After all, it has to be better than last season, right?

The Twins were a wreck last year, physically and mentally. Decimated by injuries early, they were inventing new ways to lose by May while nursemaiding a group of rookies who otherwise would have been honing their game at Class AAA Rochester. That Minnesota started the season with the highest payroll in team history, in excess of $113 million on Opening Day, only compounded the problem.

So did the fact that the Twins were coming off back-to-back Central Division titles and talking candidly about needing to win a playoff series for the first time since 2002. Instead, they failed to reach .500 even once.

By season's end, manager Ron Gardenhire was calling it a "nightmare," but by January, general manager Terry Ryan was calling it "an anomaly." Regardless, Twins fans packed Target Field to the tune of 39,112 a game, an average of fewer than 400 paying customers below capacity for all 81 home dates. Already the Twins have sold the equivalent of 23,000 full season tickets, 2.475 million in all. Not bad for a team coming off a 99-loss season, its second worst since the franchise moved from Washington to Minnesota in 1961.

Will such loyalty be rewarded?

"If we're all healthy, we're instantly better; that's just the way it's going to be," right-hander Scott Baker said. "But we'll have to see."

Baker, the team's best starter last season with a 3.14 earned-run average, used two of the Twins' major-league-high 27 trips to the disabled list last season. In all, four-fifths of the rotation spent time on the DL, and the top four batters in the lineup - former American League MVPs Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, leadoff hitter Denard Span and No. 2 hitter Tsuyoshi Nishioka - each missed at least 60 games.

Few teams, if any, could weather breaks like that.

"I don't care who you are," said Morneau, who suffered a season-ending concussion in late August after already missing substantial time because of a wrist injury and nerve damage in his neck and arm. "You take (Derek) Jeter, (Mark) Teixeira and A-Rod out of (the Yankees') lineup - not that we're anywhere near those three guys - or you take (Miguel) Cabrera out of their lineup in Detroit, that's a different lineup. If you lose (Paul) Konerko in Chicago, it's a different lineup.

"We lost three established, veteran guys out of our lineup; that's going to affect anybody."

Detroit, which lost to Texas in the AL Championship Series, was a favorite to repeat as soon as last season ended. Then the Tigers went out and signed free-agent first baseman Prince Fielder, who finished third in National League MVP voting after hitting .299 with 38 homers and 120 RBIs with the Brewers last season.

With AL MVP and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander returning atop the rotation and a lineup that already included Miguel Cabrera, Brennan Boesch and Jhonny Peralta, the Tigers suddenly looked unbeatable.

"We're OK with everybody picking Detroit," Mauer said. "Over the years, we haven't been picked a whole lot to finish at the top. We know what we have in this clubhouse, and we're very capable of getting to where we want to be, and (winning the division) is our goal."

"There are so many different ways to win a division," said starter Carl Pavano, who won a World Series ring with Florida in 2003 and was a member of the Twins' 2009 and 2010 teams.

The question now is whether the Twins can find one. Here's a position-by-position look at what must break right for them in 2012:

CATCHER

If Mauer stays healthy, this is an immediate upgrade. He played only 52 games at catcher last season. History suggests a healthy Mauer, a three-time AL batting champion, will hit, score runs and maybe even drive in 90. He did everything asked of him this spring and left Fort Myers with a .357 batting average and 13 RBIs in 19 games. Playing first base occasionally should help keep him fresh. Free agent Ryan Doumit isn't as sharp defensively as Drew Butera, but he's a much better hitter (.271 career average vs. .178).

DESIGNATED HITTER

Though neither Morneau nor the Twins have given up on him playing first base, starting Morneau here seems smart. Since moving to DH on March 14, he is hitting .341 with three homers, five doubles and 14 RBIs and had a nine-game hitting streak. When Morneau is not in the lineup, manager Ron Gardenhire will have plenty of potential replacements, Doumit, Mauer, Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes among them. This is an upgrade on a position manned mostly by players nursing injuries last season.

INFIELD

Ryan replaced Nishioka, who could neither hit nor field, with veteran SS Jamey Carroll and moved Plouffe, a rookie with a promising bat, to OF. Gardenhire has been complimentary of 3B Danny Valencia, who earned the manager's wrath for his defense last season. 1B Chris Parmelee has never played a full season beyond Class AA New Britain but has done nothing but hit major league pitching when given the chance. Can Alexi Casilla make it through a full season? The injury-prone 2B has never played 100 games. Really, it can't be worse than last season.

OUTFIELD

CF Denard Span is among the AL's best when healthy, an above-average fielder and a good leadoff man. But he may need to expand his range with Josh Willingham in LF and Doumit in RF; neither has looked particularly, uh, spry at the corners this spring. Fourth outfielder Ben Revere is a terrific piece off the bench, a great fielder with world-class speed. With Plouffe still learning, it's easy to see the Twins giving up some runs here.

STARTING PITCHING

RHP Baker already is on the DL, starting the season there because of elbow tendinitis. RHP Jason Marquis was set back when he had to tend to his injured daughter for two weeks during camp. These are serious issues, especially when one considers Marquis wasn't mowing them down this spring and has never pitched in the AL. LHP Francisco Liriano and RHP Nick Blackburn have been lights out this spring, and RHP Pavano appears on pace for another 30 starts and 200 innings. RHP Liam Hendriks is ready to step in if one of these guys stumbles, but the Twins can't weather more than one bad season from this rotation.

BULLPEN

Looks to be in better shape than last season, even after Twins saves leader Joe Nathan split for Texas. Still, that ain't saying much. The pen was a mess last season. Setup LHP Glen Perkins and LHP long man Brian Duensing have proved accountable, but the rest of the pen is composed of underachievers (RHP Alex Burnett, RHP Jeff Gray, LHP Matt Maloney, RHP Jared Burton) who outlasted the spring competition. Perhaps most alarming, RH closer Matt Capps has had a rough spring, 0-1 with a 5.25 ERA and 14 hits in 12 innings, four of them homers. The Twins need 2010 Capps (2-0, 2.00) not 2011 Capps (4-7, 4.25).

FORECAST

"I think health's No. 1: Getting us all on the field healthy will be the most important thing," said Span, who missed 92 games because of a concussion in 2011. "I feel like if we can be healthy, we've already won, because we all need to be on the field - that gives us the best chance to win."

At the least, it has to be better. After 99 losses, maybe that will be enough.

 

 

Marty Hinrichs

mntwins...@yahoo.com