How many of you have ever heard of the following?
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Tuttleshak
Sep 21, 2008, 11:59:35 PM9/21/08
to Handicapping Harness
How many of you have ever heard of the following?
It's called "Progression & Regression rates" And, here's basically
how it works....
By the way, I'm ALWAYS available to answer ANY questions @
(jjtuttle131@...), and I have that address in ALL of my books.
I'm NOT a professional writer. I'm just a guy with CP who happens to
have a lifetime's worth of knowledge under my proverbial hat. I'm
simply trying to help people win more often, that is my sole "Agenda",
for that is of my nature. I'm an Aquarian, and we're ALWAYS looking
out for others.
Now onto that excerpt that I promised..... From: "Speed, Speed, and
Nothing but Speed by. H. Winn Rates/Joseph J. Tuttle
[Bet you've never heard of this before?]
It's called "Progression and "Regression rates and it works like
this....
"[Progression]
The most-commonly run distance race in North America, is the
six-furlong sprint race. A six-furlong sprint consists of 6/8ths or
3/4ths of a mile. This means, that the final 1/8 of a six-furlong race
(otherwise known as the "Stretch Call") is 17% of the race.
At seven-furlongs it would equate to approximately 14%, and at a flat
mile (as in almost ALL harness races) it would equal 12.5%.
If a horse were to improve their position within that final eighth by
2 lengths (in a one-mile race), that would equal a progression rate of
25% (12.5x2=25). Now, imagine that you were looking over a horse's
PP's, and you saw a consistent pattern emerge of this horse always
"progressing". Wouldn't you feel a bit more confident in betting on
such a horse? The answer to that question is a resounding "YES"!
On Friday May 30th 2008, I recently wagered on a horse in the 3rd @
Hollywood Park (by the name of True Suggestion), who won like breaking
sticks and paid a very generous 11-1. In this particular race only two
horses had positive progression rates.
The #2 horse True Suggestion and the #1 horse: Vegas Runner. True
Suggestion had a score of (+79) and Vegas Runner was a (+42). Below is
how I derived True Suggestion's number.
True Suggestion's pattern of "Progression or "Regression" read as
follows: +55, +33, -21, +18, and +18. Then, I simply added all of
those numbers together (which went on to equal +103). I then proceeded
to add the 103+55 (the 55 being this horse's last outing), which
equaled +158 and divided it by two, which gave me the derived number
of (+79).
The real beauty behind this numbers system is in the fact that all of
the percentages are constant. And, irrespective of whether a horse has
recently raced over the turf course instead of the dirt, it has
absolutely no barring over these derived rates.
[Regression]
Naturally, if a horse is showing a consistent pattern of "Regression",
then one can make the assumption; that something may be wrong with
that particular horse."
Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle
It's called "Progression & Regression rates" And, here's basically
how it works....
By the way, I'm ALWAYS available to answer ANY questions @
(jjtuttle131@...), and I have that address in ALL of my books.
I'm NOT a professional writer. I'm just a guy with CP who happens to
have a lifetime's worth of knowledge under my proverbial hat. I'm
simply trying to help people win more often, that is my sole "Agenda",
for that is of my nature. I'm an Aquarian, and we're ALWAYS looking
out for others.
Now onto that excerpt that I promised..... From: "Speed, Speed, and
Nothing but Speed by. H. Winn Rates/Joseph J. Tuttle
[Bet you've never heard of this before?]
It's called "Progression and "Regression rates and it works like
this....
"[Progression]
The most-commonly run distance race in North America, is the
six-furlong sprint race. A six-furlong sprint consists of 6/8ths or
3/4ths of a mile. This means, that the final 1/8 of a six-furlong race
(otherwise known as the "Stretch Call") is 17% of the race.
At seven-furlongs it would equate to approximately 14%, and at a flat
mile (as in almost ALL harness races) it would equal 12.5%.
If a horse were to improve their position within that final eighth by
2 lengths (in a one-mile race), that would equal a progression rate of
25% (12.5x2=25). Now, imagine that you were looking over a horse's
PP's, and you saw a consistent pattern emerge of this horse always
"progressing". Wouldn't you feel a bit more confident in betting on
such a horse? The answer to that question is a resounding "YES"!
On Friday May 30th 2008, I recently wagered on a horse in the 3rd @
Hollywood Park (by the name of True Suggestion), who won like breaking
sticks and paid a very generous 11-1. In this particular race only two
horses had positive progression rates.
The #2 horse True Suggestion and the #1 horse: Vegas Runner. True
Suggestion had a score of (+79) and Vegas Runner was a (+42). Below is
how I derived True Suggestion's number.
True Suggestion's pattern of "Progression or "Regression" read as
follows: +55, +33, -21, +18, and +18. Then, I simply added all of
those numbers together (which went on to equal +103). I then proceeded
to add the 103+55 (the 55 being this horse's last outing), which
equaled +158 and divided it by two, which gave me the derived number
of (+79).
The real beauty behind this numbers system is in the fact that all of
the percentages are constant. And, irrespective of whether a horse has
recently raced over the turf course instead of the dirt, it has
absolutely no barring over these derived rates.
[Regression]
Naturally, if a horse is showing a consistent pattern of "Regression",
then one can make the assumption; that something may be wrong with
that particular horse."
Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle
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