US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015

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Apr 17, 2010, 3:41:41 PM4/17/10
to Grass Energy
• Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says
• Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel

The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could
disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by
2015 with a significant economic and political impact.

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report
from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in
Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to
soon top $100 a barrel.

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear,
and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10
million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a
senior commander, General James N Mattis.

It adds: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic,
political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it
surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing
and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other
unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the
path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both
China and India."

The US military says its views cannot be taken as US government policy
but admits they are meant to provide the Joint Forces with "an
intellectual foundation upon which we will construct the concept to
guide out future force developments."

The warning is the latest in a series from around the world that has
turned peak oil – the moment when demand exceeds supply – from a
distant threat to a more immediate risk.

The Wicks Review on UK energy policy published last summer effectively
dismissed fears but Lord Hunt, the British energy minister, met
concerned industrialists two weeks ago in a sign that it is rapidly
changing its mind on the seriousness of the issue.

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