Intrade Newsletter: Is Donald Trump serious?

[John T. Maloney (jheuristic)]

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Friday, April 29th, 2011

 

Markets suggest Donald Trump should be taken seriously By Intrade Staff Writer Just how serious should we take Donald Trump's talk of running for President of the United States? The New York real estate mogul has been dismissed by most in the political establishment, including his own party. Karl Rove, advisor to President George W. Bush, has labelled Trump a joke and an "inconsequential candidate". House Majority Leader Eric Cantor agreed, saying Trump shouldn't be taken seriously. But the Intrade markets suggest that "The Donald" should not be written off. Mitt Romney is still the clear market leader in the race for the Republican nomination, currently trading at 24.9%. He is followed by Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels on 16.3% and 9.6% respectively. Next comes Trump with an 8.5% probability of securing the nomination. This puts him ahead of GOP heavyweights like Mike Huckabee, Michelle Bachmann and Sarah Palin. The market gives Trump a 6.0% chance of being elected president next year. This is well behind Barack Obama on 59.7% and Mitt Romney on 12.0%. But interestingly he sits ahead of both Pawlenty and Daniels, which indicates Trump may run as an independent or third party candidate if he doesn't win the GOP nomination. The market is fairly cautious about whether or not he will actually run however. The market today shows a 47.5% chance of Trump formally announcing a bid for the White House. This market has been volatile in the past month, trading at a peak of 70.0% just a couple of days ago, and as low as 33.0% at the beginning of April. Trump has suggested he will announce his intentions on the finale of this season's "The Apprentice" on May 15th. Until then, like it or not, Donald Trump appears to be a serious player in the GOP field for 2012. Or maybe it's all just a publicity stunt.   Three front-runners emerge from the American Idol pack By Intrade Staff Writer As the field narrows in season 10 of American Idol, three contestants have emerged as potential winners according to the Intrade market. Following last night's departure of early favourite Casey Abrams, the market today shows a 38.0% chance of James Durbin winning this years prize. Scotty McCreery is close behind James on 36.1%, with Lauren Alaina back on 26.5%. Trailing the top three by some distance are Haley Reinhart and Jacob Lusk, who are given little chance of winning. They are currently trading at 4.8% and 2.0% respectively. Trade the Winner of American Idol HERE

Bashar al-Assad holding firm as Syrian protests escalate By Intrade Staff Writer Bashar al-Assad, President of Syria, is determined not to go the same way as his fellow authoritarians in Egypt, Tunisia and possibly Libya and Yemen. As protests against his regime have escalated, so has the level of repression and violence in response. It is reported that over 500 demonstrators have been killed so far in the uprising, which began small in scale with calls for governmental reform but quickly escalated to demands for full-scale regime change as security forces began a violent crackdown on protests. Border crossings have been closed and tanks deployed to various hotspots. In response to the violence over 200 ruling Baath party officials have resigned in protest. Defections from the armed forces have also been confirmed, with several army units refusing to fire on protesters. The Intrade market currently expects al-Assad to remain in power however. The market predicts just a 7.7% probability of al-Assad being gone by the end of June, and a 35.0% chance of being gone by the end of the year. This last figure, while still fairly low, has been edging higher in recent weeks as the situation in Syria has intensified. Two weeks ago the market showed only a 17.5% probability of al-Assad no longer being President by the end of 2011. Two days ago it had crept up to 39.0% before slipping back to today's figure of 35.0%. Trade the Bashar al-Assad market HERE   Over 1,200 other markets are open for trading on Intrade Including: Will the US or Israel bomb Iran's nuclear facilities? Will Sarah Palin announce she will run for President in 2012? Will Congress increase the US debt ceiling before the end of June? Will the Dow Jones be over 13,000 at the end of the year? Will there be a majority government elected in Canada? Will Barack Obama be re-elected president in 2012? Will Gadaffi be overthrown by the end of 2011? Will S&P downgrade their rating of US government debt? Will Tim Pawlenty be the GOP nominee in 2012? Intrade Exchange News Most Volatile Markets

 

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