Advice for Mexico
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Luis Mochan
May 25, 2012, 7:29:40 PM5/25/12
to election...@googlegroups.com
In a few weeks M�xico will hold nation-wide elections, including a
presidential election.
Six years ago, there was enough data in the official databases to
allow an estimate of the uncertainty in the results, which turned out
to be about an order of magnitude larger than the difference in votes
obtained by the top contenders. Nevertheless, the concept of
uncertainty is not contemplated by our legislation (and I guess, by no
other legislation).
On the other hand, the data showed many seemingly anomalous
statistical behaviors which so far have not been explained
satisfactorily. Many of these behaviors are discussed in detail (and
in disorder) at http://bit.ly/t5PzsI (in Spanish, with an outdated
translation into English). The anomalies might indicate illegal
acts during the election or illegal manipulation of the
data immediately afterwards, but this could not be proved, as at the
time the main opposition party did not have reliable
representatives at enough booths to verify the alteration of the
data, and the demand for a full recount was never accepted (although
(surprisingly) the government attempts to destroy the (paper) ballots
have been derailed so far).
It is likely that this situation could repeat itself in our next
election. However, technology has evolved and any citizen could
capture with a cell phone images of the election certificates
corresponding to each booth, and/or write down the results and send
them to a centralized or a distributed data base where they can be
processed and compared with the official results.
My question is, has this been done before? Is there any software or
phone-app available for this purpose? Are there known procedures to
discriminate truthful from false data? Any experience in the
'election-integrity' group that can be shared and/or any
recommendations? Our elections will take place on July 1.
Best regards,
Luis Moch�n
--
o
W. Luis Moch�n, | tel:(52)(777)329-1734 /<(*)
Instituto de Ciencias F�sicas, UNAM | fax:(52)(777)317-5388 `>/ /\
Apdo. Postal 48-3, 62251 | (*)/\/ \
Cuernavaca, Morelos, M�xico | moc...@fis.unam.mx /\_/\__/
O< ascii ribbon campaign - stop html mail - www.asciiribbon.org
presidential election.
Six years ago, there was enough data in the official databases to
allow an estimate of the uncertainty in the results, which turned out
to be about an order of magnitude larger than the difference in votes
obtained by the top contenders. Nevertheless, the concept of
uncertainty is not contemplated by our legislation (and I guess, by no
other legislation).
On the other hand, the data showed many seemingly anomalous
statistical behaviors which so far have not been explained
satisfactorily. Many of these behaviors are discussed in detail (and
in disorder) at http://bit.ly/t5PzsI (in Spanish, with an outdated
translation into English). The anomalies might indicate illegal
acts during the election or illegal manipulation of the
data immediately afterwards, but this could not be proved, as at the
time the main opposition party did not have reliable
representatives at enough booths to verify the alteration of the
data, and the demand for a full recount was never accepted (although
(surprisingly) the government attempts to destroy the (paper) ballots
have been derailed so far).
It is likely that this situation could repeat itself in our next
election. However, technology has evolved and any citizen could
capture with a cell phone images of the election certificates
corresponding to each booth, and/or write down the results and send
them to a centralized or a distributed data base where they can be
processed and compared with the official results.
My question is, has this been done before? Is there any software or
phone-app available for this purpose? Are there known procedures to
discriminate truthful from false data? Any experience in the
'election-integrity' group that can be shared and/or any
recommendations? Our elections will take place on July 1.
Best regards,
Luis Moch�n
--
o
W. Luis Moch�n, | tel:(52)(777)329-1734 /<(*)
Instituto de Ciencias F�sicas, UNAM | fax:(52)(777)317-5388 `>/ /\
Apdo. Postal 48-3, 62251 | (*)/\/ \
Cuernavaca, Morelos, M�xico | moc...@fis.unam.mx /\_/\__/
O< ascii ribbon campaign - stop html mail - www.asciiribbon.org
Luis Mochan
May 25, 2012, 8:11:53 PM5/25/12
to election...@googlegroups.com
> Six years ago, there was enough data in the official databases to
> allow an estimate of the uncertainty in the results...
I found the corresponding paper: http://bit.ly/KTVmd1
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