How Gallup weights their national polls

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Steve Freeman

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Feb 28, 2012, 10:45:00 PM2/28/12

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From Steve Soto, www.theleftcoaster.com/

Last weeks’s USAT/Gallup poll and story told us that Romney was running ahead of Obama and Santorum running even with him. I couldn't believe this, given the recent rhetoric from both Romney and Santorum, so I asked Gallup for the sample ID information, and they graciously gave me the attached late today.

… the sample they used for this national poll, which they claim is a representative sample of registered voters, was made up of: 40% conservatives, 37% moderates, 21% liberals

Income: Over $75K… 29%

Party ID: 27% GOP, 29% Dem, 43% Independent

They then rounded the sample up to fit a 45% GOP/Lean GOP and 45% Dem/Lean Dem sample, with only 8% remaining independent.

Is this really a representative sample of registered voters right now?

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Steve Freeman

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Feb 28, 2012, 10:49:18 PM2/28/12

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More from Steve Soto: ... you'll note that Gallup has since used this suspect poll sample to further along this narrative with two new "analyses":

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152954/Half-Say-Obama-Liberal-Agree-Issues.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152963/Contraception-Debate-Divides-Americans-Including-Women.aspx

See, they're using this poll's flawed sample that skewed way too much conservative and wealthy to now also try and tell us that Obama's way too liberal (yet people agree with him), and that women are split on the contraception issue (when in fact they're not split at all, unless you ask way too many conservative women).