Ana Maria Diaz Escobar
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to <EcoSeminariosJaveriana@googlegroups.com>, Claudio Alberto Mora Garcia, Alexander Gotthard Real, Jairo Andrés Rendón Gamboa, Jeremy Chi-Ying Young, Oliver Enrique Pardo Reinoso, Javier Alejandro Rodríguez Camacho, Marie Boltz, Andres Eduardo Luengo Morales, Maria Alejandra Baquero Moreno, Jhon Alexander Romero Ochoa, Alejandra Rubio Perdomo, Julian David Castro Rico, Daniela Trespalacios Leal, Santiago Gómez Malagón, Carlos Ivan Bolivar Herrera, Daniel Camilo Galvis Barrero, John Alexander Pantoja Dueñas, Santiago Muñoz González, Sofia Betancourt Cajiao, Christian Diego Alcocer Arguello, Irene Clavijo, Oscar Nupia Martinez
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Long-term Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers on Economic Mobility
Irene Clavijo
Paris School of Economics
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There is recent optimism about the increase in economic mobility in Latin America. Several cross-country studies for the region highlight the role played by social spending,
in particular conditional cash transfer programs (CCTs). However, few studies have identified the actual impact of these programs on households’ mobility. Indeed, despite ample evidence about the positive short-term impacts of CCT programs, little is known
about their long-term effects. This paper exploits the randomized evaluation design of Mexico’s renowned CCT program Oportunidades to measure the long-run
impact of the program on intragenerational socioeconomic mobility. In particular, it examines the effects of differential exposure to the program on households’
change in consumption rank and in mobility trajectories up to 10 years after the program started. The results suggest the transfers initially increased upward mobility; however this effect was not sustained in the long-term. The heterogeneity analysis suggests the
effects were highest in the short run among the less educated households while land and animal ownership did not accentuate the program’s effects on mobility.
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Fecha:
Lunes 5 de Diciembre, 2016.
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