Technology forecasts & Product roadmaps

[Kalyan Kidambi]

Hello all,

 

I am curios about the process of technology forecasts and methods of mapping the same to product road maps. More likely than not, IMHO, technology forecasts come with myriad of unstated assumptions and far removed from the environment they will be used in.

 

Said that, is there a process out there or from your experience, which will harmonize tech forecasts and product

roadmaps.

 

I am just trying to see if some "reality checks" can be put in place for such a process (mapping), but have not been able to find any existing literature.

 

I'd appreicate any pointers, thoughts.

 

Best Regards,

Kalyan

[JohanGE]

Dear Kalyan,
See my attempt to provide an answer as below:
Brgds,
Johan

...................

Yes, technology forecasts will come with myriad of unstated assumptions
and seldom applicable enough for you to act on directly

and

No, there is no available template which will can be filled in

but

Yes, there are several good ways to act preventive (best practice
processes) - in order to enlighten the decisions on how to act and
reason.
...................

Here's one high level example of how it can be done:

Several processes in combination must deliver - in order to take you
from forecasting to roadmap.
1. The process of establishing technology forecasts consist of
consious, structured, continuos intelligence activities (BI, CI, TI)
with a value chain perspective
# your survelliance can be conceptualised into a focus on
quantifying product attributes, important to actors in the value chain
(your customers, consumers, suppliers and competitors)
# but there are several academic schools which teach/preach
intelligence practices ..

2. The Intelligence produced is input to your work within the business
strategy process (including Product & Technology Strategy - "where you
need to be" - and capabilities which need to be developed)
# forecasts and scenarios are used as alternative assumptions, but
should only be regarded as likely truths.
# what is more relevant to establish an outcome from the strategy
process is your existing performance.
# the strategy outcome is where you want to be positioned, how you
have to perform (attribute performance improvements) to beat
competition in relation to your forecasts.

3. Managing your "fuzzy front end" (Intelligence processes, issue- and
Idea Management processes ) continuously helps structuring the
unstructured and almost always fragmented input which your organisation
is subjected to
# (customer complaints, technical maintenance problems, market
opportunities, visionary & practical ideas, expressed customer needs
(performance gaps) and fragments required improvements, scenarios etc.
)

4. The strategy outcome is what you use as the "ruler" - against which
you must prioritise your ideas, market- and customer needs,
opportunities and defined performance gaps.

5. Your product roadmap must consider which of the performance gaps,
opportunities and ideas to act on.
# the process to establish a roadmap is in which order prioritise,
plan and agree how to close the gaps
# selecting and prioritising ideas, performance gaps and
requirements against your strategy (wanted position)
# in parallel, assessing your technical capabilities to meet and
close prioritised gaps must be done to start initiating your technology
roadmap
# attractiveness of attribute improvement impact and performance
leaps you should make vs. the feasibility of closing the gaps in terms
of time (urgency) and available resources (available capabilities like
know-how and technology to take you there)
# attractiveness and impact vs. feasibility assessment of product
improvements will determine which long terms gaps can only be closed by
developing or exploiting available technical and knowledge capabilities

# your long term technology roadmap is derived from how you decide
to use, develop, insource or outsource your capabilities (and is again
input to your next strategy cycle)

So, yes, there are processes out there (mainly in large and established
enterprices) which will harmonize tech forecasts and product roadmaps -
but in any company with established products it will not solely be the
result of a single individual's work.
It is the work across all aspects of the company which is aggregated
into the product offering - and how to get there.

One reading example which may guide you in direction which may reduce
uncertainty to handle myriads of inputs and assumptions is to search
for IMD Professor, Jean-Philippe Deschampes, author of Product
juggernauts : how companies mobilize to generate a stream of market
winners http://www01.imd.ch/faculty/vitae/index.cfm?id=142

Brgds,
Johan

[Kalyan Kidambi]

Dear Jack, Johan,

 

Thank you both for your insight.

 

Let me study those further, and get back with more :)

 

Best Regards,

Kalyan

 

.
Manager Network Development
Frontier Communications Solutions
Burnsville, MN 55306
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