Technology Forecasts and Product Roadmaps

[Kalyan Kidambi]

Hello all,

 

I am curios about the process of technology forecasts and methods of mapping the same to

product road maps. More likely than not, IMHO, technology forecasts come with myriad of unstated

assumptions and far removed from the environment they will be used in. Said that, is there

a process out there or from your experience, which will harmonize tech forecasts and product

roadmaps.

 

I am just trying to see if some "reality checks" can be put in place for such a process (mapping), but

have not been able to find any existing literature.

 

I'd appreicate any pointers, thoughts.

 

Best Regards,

Kalyan

[Jack Hipple]

You need to look at the Lines and Patterns of Evolution contained in
the TRIZ technology. Instudying patent treds over the past 50 years,
itturns out to be rather easy to forecast and plan major
discontinuities in technology developments. There is some literature,
but most highly proprietary corporate work using these tools.

These lines and patterns of evolution allow both forecasting (in a non
time related way) but also allow sanity checks of other forecasts.

Jack Hipple
Innovation-TRIZ
Tampa, FL
813-994-9999