Bush visit to China unlikely to open new ground

[china...@yahoo.com]

(Kyodo) _ U.S. President George W. Bush begins a China visit this
weekend to discuss a variety of issues but with few odds of a
breakthrough in Sino-U.S. relations, officials and political analysts
say.
After arriving China late Saturday from South Korea, Bush will meet the
next morning with Chinese President Hu Jintao at the Great Hall of the
People in Beijing and issue a joint statement.

Later in the day he will meet with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at the
Diaoyutai State Guesthouse.

He may also attend a church service but that decision would be his own
rather than one by governments, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu
Jianchao said earlier this week.

Bush is expected to talk about common Sino-U.S. points of concern such
as Taiwan, North Korea, terrorism, trade and human rights but not open
any new ground, observers say.

In Japan on Wednesday, he lauded Taiwan's "young democracy" and
suggested China build a democracy to complement improvements in living
standards. ADVERTISEMENT

The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman called the Bush visit
"important" but did not specify an agenda.

Liu also rebutted criticisms of China in Bush's speech in Kyoto.

Hu, too, will want to maintain the status quo in Sino-U.S. relations to
duck China's "weak" position in the world, said William Hurst, a
Chinese studies fellow at Oxford University.

He said one weakness was not answering other countries' calls to raise
the value of its currency, a move that would raise the price of Chinese
exports and make local goods more attractive to consumers.

China hopes to "narrow differences" and "promote mutual understanding
and trust" to build cooperation, the official Xinhua News Agency said
last week.

Chinese officials in recent years have lauded the development of
Sino-U.S. relations after decades of Cold War animosity.

Bush, pressed at home to fight rising Chinese power, will call on China
for change, Hurst said.

"Bush will probably therefore have to at least appear to toe the line
in making public calls for changes in some of China's key economic
policies," Hurst said. "He may also feel some obligation to...raise
issues of political reform, human rights, and democracy."

Hu will "politely deflect direct calls for changes in any important
policy areas," Hurst added.

In real political terms, however, the two countries face no pressing
topics, said Jin Canrong, a professor of international relations at
People's University of China.

Still, Taiwan remains a sticking point with the U.S. government
recognizing Beijing over Taipei but still committed to protecting
Taiwan from outside attack.

North Korea, human rights in China and the transparency of China's
military strength are also probable agenda items, Jin said.

"The issues put on table should be a lot, and lots of topics are OK to
talk about," Jin said. "Overall relations are very important, but
there's nothing too urgent."

The U.S. business community expects Bush to push Chinese officials for
another hike in the value of China's currency, said Don St. Pierre,
owner of ASC Fine Wines in Beijing.

"Being that I like a strong dollar and that I buy Australian and
European wines, I hope he wins that battle," St. Pierre said. "I'd like
to see the (yuan) around 7.7 (to the dollar). Some of my banking
friends tell me it's going to end up same as the Hong Kong dollar one
of these days."

Bush will probably discuss the currency rate, the recent deal on
Chinese textile exports to the United States and perceptions that China
is not doing enough to protect intellectual property rights, Jin said.

The two countries' leaders will also bring up jointly fighting avian
influenza and high oil prices, he said.

On Monday, Bush goes to Mongolia for his the first visit to that
country by a U.S. president.

He is to meet Mongolian President Nambaryn Enkhbayar and Prime Minister
Tsakhia Elbegdorj.