CDR in the new UNEP Gap Report
Greg Rau
“The risks and uncertainties related to the achievement of the gigaton levels of CDR that would be required later in this century were also stipulated in the 2023 edition of the Emissions Gap Report (UNEP 2023, chapter 7). Methods that deliver CDR are associated with major technological, economic and sustainability challenges, including high energy and water demands, land-use competition, significant costs and technological uncertainties (Fuhrmanet al. 2021; Lane et al. 2021; Meckling and Biber 2021; Rosa et al. 2020; Smith et al. 2016; Wei et al. 2021). Increased reliance on conventional land-based CDR is risky due to issues of land competition, protection of Indigenous and traditional communities’ land tenure and rights, and sustainability, biodiversity and permanence risks of forest-based CO2 removal, including from forest fires and other disturbances. Scaling and expanding novel CDR methods with geological storage requires time and significant policy effort (Nemet et al. 2023; UNEP 2023). Novel CDR methods are generally at an early stage of development and are associated with different types of risks, including that the technical, economic and political requirements for large-scale deployment may not materialize in time. Furthermore, public acceptance is still uncertain, particularly for approaches involving carbon capture and storage, or the open ocean. These risks can negatively affect the prospects for scale - up, despite technical potential. Furthermore, overreliance on CDR risks delaying the broader energy transition and decarbonization (Ampah et al. 2024).”
My concerns:
2) Yes, there are physical, environmental, and social limitations to what CDR can do, but let's make sure those limitations truly outweigh the benefits of helping save the planet from excess CO2. If we fail at effectively managing CO2, what will be the impacts be to non-indigenous, “Indigenous and traditional communities’ land tenure and rights, biosphere sustainability, biodiversity", food security, etc? There will be tradeoffs so let's make sure we are operating on facts and evidence, not myth and speculation in making decisions as to the costs, risks, and benefits of doing CDR. Those facts and evidence can only come from RDD&D done and evaluated under a system of merit, not politics, favoritism and who has the best lobbyists. (We can at least do better in the US than the 20 years of gov funded CDR R&D we've just experienced and now terminated.)
3) Why imply that "novel" CDR only requires geologic storage and that access to geologic storage limits novel CDR? There’s 40,0000+ Gt C (140,000+ Gt CO2 equivalent) already in other C reservoirs on Earth with lots of additional storage possible, esp in the ocean.
4) mCDR is apparently put in the "novel" category despite its already contributing half of the natural CDR that in total removes about 50% of our emissions annually. How “novel” and immature is mCDR considering it’s been around (been “in development”) for a few billion years longer than "conventional" trees and soils (and truly novel DAC and BECCS)?
5) And last but not least, that 'moral hazard' argument just won't die: "overreliance on CDR risks delaying the broader energy transition and decarbonization". If framed properly there is no risk that CDR threatens emissions reduction because the former addressed legacy CO2 that emissions reduction doesn't touch. There are a thousand Gts up there right now that need removing, a quantity far larger and more impactful than the 42 Gt that will be emitted this year (and, yes, need to be reduced). So, there is plenty of CO2 to go around, why are we pitting one method against another if both are needed?
Tom Goreau
Thanks, Greg! What about SRM?
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Benoit Lambert
I have been following our Google CDR group for some time. I am always impressed by the scientific level. Yet I believe our brains do not serve us well when it comes to predictions. We seem to be wired to always anticipate the worst. It might have to do with dangers in nature, food shortages, « l’état de nature » as Thomas Hobbes referred to in The Leviathan, or, Machiavelli in The Prince. The summit of this legitimate fear has been reach with the entropy law, that applies to the fossil fuel era, but, not to the solar-wind-battery (SWB) Stellar new era, or the biogeotherapy times based on new science of soils. Let me try to explain what I mean. I’d love to receive reactions.
When I was a student in Montreal University, a young teacher was receiving little considerations from his colleague, to the point it made me feel bad at times. Not a professor, he finally lost his position as a lecturer. The reason? He was in contact and researched a field nobody took seriously: futurology. He had all kinds of publicity on the topic on his office door. Futurology was dis-considered as « new-age », crazy stuff from California, with no solid scientific bases. Today Tony Seba, the chief futurologist, has proved a new law in human sciences, and, completely reversed the situation: technologies and innovations follow an S curve in their adoption. Their adoption is predictable. « As predictable as gravity » says Seba. Looking at 1500 innovations and adoptions, he shows they ALL follow the same adoption pattern: slow adoption at first, then super rapid adoption, followed by a ceiling. This mechanic is now (a little) more rapid than a century ago. The 900 000 prediction for sells of cell phones ended up being… 109 000 000, etc. Seba insist, « there is no exception ». It is just happening faster than before he says with his RethinkX team. Rather stunning, here is a non-academic proposing a social sciences law that works, all the time.
Seba says we are in the middle of a clean energy revolution that will change everything, including for the climate crisis. The first major step will be the replacement of ALL current electricity within 5-7 years. Humanity went from 1 to 2 TW of solar power between 2022 and 2024. With wind and batteries, we double, largely, every 2 years: 4, 8, 16, 32 TW in 1932—the world’s electricity installed power is currently 30 TW. Then, replacing ALL energy will take another 10 years—indeed Seba predicts a sudden end for fossil fuels. This is an IT type revolution, exponential, turning logarithmic, Moore’s curve, etc. Just like with IT/iPhone/numeric photos, many will deny it is happening, especially current energy incumbents. Going solar-wind-batteries is not just a swap, SWB has an amazing number of consequences: developed countries get 10% richer, but, much more consequential, developing countries get 90% richer… Once installed, there is no coal, no petroleum, no gaz, no uranium needed, reducing polluting transports massively. The fact solar must aim at producing during the weeks with less sun, liberates free energy during the rest of the year, 11 or 11.5 months: Seba calls it « SWB superpower » and its main consequence, super-abundance. SWB is already the cheapest source of energy today. If you own a plant… the sole operating expenses are more pricy than switching to SWB… —and, as if this is not spectacular enough, SWB goes down 20% every two years. Current electricity plants have, in reality, no real value. Fossil fuels will disappear very fast, very suddenly. Again, this is not a swap of one energy for another, a commun mistake observers make. SWB implies all kinds of changes, self-driving cars using AI, transport on demand, transport as a service (TaaS) that will use much less space in urban environments, and, divide transportation cost by 10X. With time, batteries will improve, and, use 2-3 times less of their recycled minerals. Fossil fuels extraction and various mines will eventually close, especially considering technological innovations and substitutions, in particular sodium-ion batteries. Again, the co-benefits go in cascade—this is not simply the replacement of one product/commodity by another, all kinds of new possibilities appear.
Now regarding biogeotherapy I have developed with Thomas Goreau’s suggestions and support, the need for 1000 GtC02 captured and stored. It resembles our incapacity to anticipate SWB. A lot. Let me give you my personal experience. As a tree-planter, 20 four-months seasons, I have planted 3 000 000 trees. This is a conservative evaluation that might surprise some (80 days X 2 000 trees X 20 years = 3 200 000 trees, a conservative number). Crowther Lab in 2019 mentioned planting 1 000 000 000 000 trees would bring us back to 280 ppm. Divide a trillion by 3 M, you get 333 333, if you want to get this done in 5 years, not 20, you need 1.33 M tree planters, not considering new drone technics. We know lots of land is needed for that, the size of China, biodiversity of tree species, etc. Yet it is obviously not impossible at all. And, the (real) good news is that reforestation is far from being the only nature-based solution we have: no-till with cover crops, holistic grazing management promoted by Alan Savory (carbon ranching), biochar, mangroves, hemps, bamboo, seaweeds, rock weathering (remineralization), and, numerous other NbS I mention briefly in Biogeotherapy. A clarification: we have no choice. We must repair soils. Regenerative agriculture and carbon ranching are part of trophic chains, « the dynamic of grasses » as André Voisin wrote some 60 years ago.
I am not saying here biogeotherapy is an easy task, just, easier than it appears at first sight. Just like the reduction of solar prices by more than a thousandX, CDRs can become win-win-win practices based on new knowledge about soils—on pedology the science of soils—with cascading co-benefits. SWB is a technology revolution, based on microchips that concentrate and move around protons. NbS is more a scientific revolution seeing soils holistically, with improved water and fertilizer holding capacities, healthy coucous-like loose soils. The result is a return to the holocene we shall have never left.
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Dan Miller
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Benoit Lambert
Here is a science compendium regarding holistic grazing management as a carbon net-negative practice.
https://soil4climate.org/science-compendium
Greg Rau
- Land availability: Critics argued the study overestimated the amount of land that could realistically and appropriately be forested, including areas like savannas and grasslands that are vital for biodiversity and carbon storage in their soils.
- Carbon sequestration: Some scientists questioned the study's estimates of how much carbon could be absorbed, citing that plantations often have lower carbon densities and release carbon when harvested.
- Ecological impacts: The study was criticized for ignoring potential negative local and regional effects, such as the warming effect of replacing light-colored surfaces like grasslands with dark-colored trees, and for suggesting planting in areas that are not suitable for forests.
- "Silver bullet" narrative: The study was interpreted by some as suggesting tree planting was a simple solution to climate change, which critics argue can lead to a false sense of security and distract from the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
- Focus on planting vs. conservation: Planting new trees does not have the same climate impact as protecting and restoring existing, mature forests, which are far more effective carbon sinks.
- Study correction: Crowther's team later published corrections, admitting some headline claims were "incorrect" and that data contained "errors".
- Nuanced perspective: Crowther has since emphasized that conservation and restoration of existing forests are more important than planting new trees and has cautioned against using tree planting as an excuse to ignore emissions cuts.
- Advocacy for responsible practices: Crowther has been vocal about the need for socially and ecologically responsible restoration, including working with local communities and Indigenous populations, rather than mass plantations that can harm biodiversity and local economies.
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Institute of Marine Sciences
Univer. California, Santa Cruz
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Benoit Lambert
Better yet we know how to reverse soil degradation, how to build
new soils, and how to “grow fertility.” We need to reverse what
Edward H. Faulkner called Plowman’s Folly, the title of his book.
Published in 1943, it contains this amazing declaration before
Permaculture: “The truth is that no one has ever advanced a
scientific reason for plowing.” Today, regenerative revolution
introduces science in agriculture. Not by plant selection as our
ancestors did, or by breeding the stronger animals, but by
recognizing carbon is at the heart of living soils, sustainability, and
profits for farmers."
Bruce Melton -- Austin, Texas
Thanks Greg. I agree with most of what you say, but with different words, except for a few things...
1) The nonlinear rate of change... Our climate culture is based on change that is tethered to the rate of emissions, where feedbacks are still poorly understood and where positive feedbacks with warming are generally much more meaningful than negative feedbacks.
2) The tipping enigma... Climate pollution mitigation targets are wrongly tied to the point of no return in most systems. "Tipping" and earth systems (ecological systems) degradation and ensuing collapse all identify the same thing - the tipping response, with two phases: activation and the point of no return. Tipping activation in most systems is related to the onset of degradation, when a system's evolutionary boundary conditions are exceeded. As degradation proceeds, the system rapidly loses its ability to sequester carbon and flips to emissions. Degradation usually proceeds with its own positive feedbacks, increasing degradation response nonlinearly with little change unless the warming effects that started the degradation are removed. Also, once degradation begins, systems begin to cascade from interconnected responses, cascades do not wait for the point of no return. Once degradation exceeds a certain amount, most systems will fail to self-restore even if the degradation forcing is removed. This is the second phase of tipping - the point of no return. This is the conundrum with our climate culture: it does not meaningfully consider that once tipping is activated (degradation begins) most systems collapse and the point of no return is forgone without removing the forcing that activated the tipping response. Our climate culture then is operating in a two-variate reality with only one variate represented in future pathways.
3) Our climate culture is over-reliant on natural systems because of activated tipping (degradation)... Because most systems are now degrading, most systems' ability to sequester carbon is compromised or reversed like in the Amazon and likely all tropical forests, because the evolutionary boundaries of these systems have been exceeded.
4) The consensus combines CDR strategies, biasing the efficacy of sub-sectors... Few analyses of CDR break this sector into sub-sectors, but rely on our climate culture's predominance of enhancing natural systems sequestration. Some sub-sectors of CDR have much greater capacity, easier scalability, and fewer side effects. This "feature" of our climate culture then biases some strategies by including them with the less efficient more difficult strategies. "Novel" strategies are a big issue. There are three DAC strategies that have been a staple of industry with even more widespread use of their components -- for a hundred years or more. This is one of my favorite discussions, where the processes associated with beer in Bavaria in the 19th century, illustrate that there are industrial CDR processes that are nowhere near novel. See, The History of Carbon Dioxide Removal.
5) The overshoot bias... Implementing CDR faster, to address the point of no return that is not considered in our climate culture, cannot be achieved with delaying CDR implementation to address net zero's hard to decarbonize sectors and the consensus modeling need to pull back overshoot therefor, the characteristics of using CDR to address the point of no return are absent in our future consensus pathways.
6) Risk-Risk analysis... Likewise, because the point of no return is not considered in our consensus pathways, risks of exceeding the point of no return are not considered.
7) Required removals for restoration... There is an assumption in restorationland, that we have to remove all the excess human-emitted carbon to avoid the point of no return. The target to stabilize activated tipping elements; to stabilize ongoing degradation, is the natural variation of our old climate, or the boundaries of the evolution of our Earth's system. Generally, the lit describes natural variation maximum as 350 ppm CO2 (about 1 C), not pre-industrial CO2 at 280 ppm. This means we do not have to remove all the excess CO2, only half(ish), to lower CO2 back to within natural variation.
8) Last: The Moral Hazard and 11 understating biases of our climate culture... Our climate culture has a one-track mission with huge momentum and very meaningful psychological constraints. Instead of addressing the climate pollution problem like we address almost all other pollution problems; by creating the things we need and treating the pollution generated so we can be safe, our culture has decided, with much input from the 11 understating biases, that elimination is the answer. The moral hazard then is a complex behavior that is driven by the understating biases with a psychological feedback that comes from 30 years of the smartest people in the world telling us eliminating climate pollution emissions is the answer. This creates momentum that feeds back into the continuation of moral hazard behaviors. I have collected scores of references for these biases and present them in An Introduction to Advanced Climate Change on slides 28-34.
MeltOn
https://climatediscovery.org/History_of_Carbon_Dioxide_Removal_Draft.docx
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