Enhanced forest management rather than afforestation has dominated China’s carbon sink over recent decades

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-03176-2

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Authors: Mengyu Zhang, Honglin He, Martin Brandt, Li Zhang, Xiaoli Ren, Xiaowei Tong, Shiyong Yu, Yan Lv, Kailiang Yu, Yuanyuan Huang, Yuchuan Fan, Zhong’en Niu, Liang Shi, Keyu Qin, Tong Zhao & Guirui Yu

08 January 2026

Abstract

Human activities substantially reduce net ecosystem productivity (NEP) globally, yet debates remain over the contributions of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC), such as afforestation (afforestation and reforestation), versus non-LUCC ecosystem management (EM; e.g., forest tending, mountain forest restoration, and fire control). Here, we developed an analytical framework by harmonizing structurally consistent remote sensing-driven and climate-driven ecological process models to quantify the dynamic effects of LUCC and eight EM types on NEP from 2001 to 2021 in China by isolating anthropogenic effects from global change factors. We found that the NEP, which averaged 327 Tg C yr–1 across the 9.6×106 km2 country, increased at a rate of 16.1 Tg C yr–2. Forest management, including forest tending (5.53 Tg C yr–2) and mountain forest restoration (2.7 Tg C yr–2), primarily drove carbon sink increases. Although afforestation induced greater NEP growth per unit area, the total effect of forest management—due to its much greater coverage—was 4.14 times greater than that of afforestation (1.6 Tg C yr–2). Notably, the acceleration of China’s NEP after 2010 was closely associated with intensified forest management efforts. Moreover, the rate of NEP gains caused by forest tending investment (8.54 kg C yr–2 $–1) was much greater than that caused by afforestation investment (0.25 kg C yr–2 $–1). Our findings highlight the critical role of forest management in cost-effectively enhancing the carbon sink. This has important implications for global forest management strategies and achieving net-zero emissions.

Source: Communications Earth & Environment