Direct air capture has substantial health and climate opportunity costs

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s44458-026-00068-0

Authors: Yannai Kashtan, Joseph Pendleton, Brian Sousa, Mary D. Willis, Drew R. Michanowicz, Seth B. C. Shonkoff & Jonathan J. Buonocore 

04 May 2026

Abstract

Direct air capture has been increasingly proposed as a necessary complement to rapid greenhouse gas emissions reductions, yet climate mitigation resources are limited and investment decisions involve trade-offs. Existing studies have largely evaluated the net climate impacts or technoeconomics of direct air capture in isolation, leaving unclear how investments in direct air capture compare to alternative mitigation strategies when both climate and public health outcomes are considered. Here, we use established grid models to quantify the regional climate and health opportunity costs of allocating capital to direct air capture rather than to renewable electricity generation. Using cost-equivalent deployment scenarios across 22 U.S. grid regions from 2020 through 2050, we compare direct air capture to utility-scale wind and solar under multiple grid and technology scenarios. We find that renewable energy deployment yields greater combined climate and public health benefits than direct air capture across nearly all scenarios and regions, with direct air capture approaching cost-effectiveness only under highly optimistic assumptions about future technological breakthroughs.

Source: Communications Sustainability