Feasible net carbon sink outcomes of China terrestrial ecosystem under economic and ecosystem service constraints

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0195925526001800

Authors: Boru Su, Moucheng Liu, Tianxiang Hao

13 May 2026

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108506

Highlights

•We developed an integrated framework linking carbon sink, ecosystem services, and economic benefits.

•We distinguished the potential and feasible net carbon sinks of China's terrestrial ecosystems.

•Economic costs and ecosystem service demand strongly constrained ecosystem management.

•These constraints substantially reduced the achievable net carbon sink.

Abstract

Ecosystem management (EM) is a key pathway for strengthening terrestrial carbon sinks in China, and net carbon sink effects depend on the feasibility of planned measures under economic cost and ecosystem service (ES) demand constraints. This study assessed the potential net carbon sink (CS) under full EM implementation, feasible CS1 under joint constraints, and the resulting CS limitation during 2020–2060 by integrating a CS–ES–economic benefits (EB) linkage framework and an integrated assessment model. The potential CS of China's terrestrial ecosystems ranged from −0.05 to 0.36 Pg C e/yr, with an annual mean of 0.20 Pg C e/yr, whereas the feasible CS ranged from −0.12 to 0.13 Pg C e/yr, with an annual mean of −0.09 Pg C e/yr. The CS limitation ranged from 0 to 0.48 Pg C e/yr and averaged 0.28 Pg C e/yr, equivalent to approximately 133% of potential CS. The constraint mechanisms also differed across regions. CS supply was jointly constrained by economic costs and ES demand in North China and Southwest China, mainly constrained by ES demand in Northwest China, East China, and South-Central China, and mainly constrained by economic costs in Northeast China. These results showed that EM-based carbon sink outcomes cannot be assessed based on biophysical potential alone. These findings provide the first forward-looking assessment of feasible CS and CS limitations in China and offer a methodological basis for feasibility-oriented assessments in other regions.

Source: ScienceDirect