The False Peak of Carbon Removal - by Ross Kenyon

[Greg Rau]

https://www.rosskenyon.com/p/the-false-peak-of-carbon-removal?utm_source=substack&publication_id=5484931&post_id=183981873&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=2481jo&triedRedirect=true

"🔹 Quick Takeaways

• Carbon removal is past its “false peak”—early momentum made the climb look easier than it is. The real mountain is only now visible. Or is it? Are there just sequential stacks of false peaks?!
• Policy progress is real but mistimed. Governments are moving, but not fast enough to meet startups’ near-term survival needs.
• The central bottleneck is demand, not supply— plenty of capital, talent, and technology exists if someone credible will buy the output.
• Voluntary markets were a miracle, not a solution— they proved concept, but will never scale the industry alone.
• Carbon removal is a public good: without government signaling or obligation, the market won’t clear.
• Advance market commitments (AMCs) are the missing bridge, not necessarily one big pool, but clear, bankable signals that demand will exist.
• “Staying alive” is the wrong goal. Building a real commercial-scale project is what separates survivors from hope-casters.
• AI demand is coincidence, not destiny. Tech companies buying removal isn’t structural, just fortunate alignment.
• Protectionism is real and unavoidable—countries want projects, jobs, and ownership at home, even if it’s more expensive.
• Carbon removal won’t scale on climate math alone — it must align with jobs, affordability, energy, and economic development. "