A meta-analysis of carbon losses and gains from tropical moist forest degradation and regeneration

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz1923

Authors: Viola Heinrich, Amelia Holcomb, Simon Besnard, Daniela Requena Suarez, et al.

03 July 2026

Abstract

Aboveground carbon (AGC) fluxes from deforestation and subsequent regrowth in tropical moist forest (TMF) are increasingly well characterized, but carbon losses and gains following partial disturbance are uncertain. We synthesized 146 studies quantifying postdisturbance AGC changes relative to undisturbed forests across TMF. Immediate AGC losses (mean ± 1 SD; 2.5 ± 2.3 years after disturbance) following partial anthropogenic disturbances were greatest for forest fires (49 ± 26%), selective logging (34 ± 20%), and edge effects (31 ± 19%). Higher-frequency and -intensity disturbances significantly increased carbon loss. After 20 years of regeneration, AGC stock was higher in recovering degraded forests (41 to 117%) compared to secondary regrowth forests after complete deforestation (1 to 74%), indicating greater regeneration potential when forest structure is preserved. Our compiled database and associated meta-analysis improve accuracy and completeness for carbon inventory reporting and modeling. Substantial AGC losses and gains from distinct degradation and recovery processes are now better characterized, serving as an evidence base for policies to halt degradation and foster recovery for climate mitigation.

Source: Science Advances