Deployment expectations of multi-gigatonne scale carbon removal could have adverse impacts on Asia’s energy-water-land nexus

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50594-5

Authors 

Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah, Chao Jin, Haifeng Liu, Mingfa Yao, Sandylove Afrane, Humphrey Adun, Jay Fuhrman, David T. Ho & Haewon McJeon 

27 July 2024

Citations: Ampah, J.D., Jin, C., Liu, H. et al. Deployment expectations of multi-gigatonne scale carbon removal could have adverse impacts on Asia’s energy-water-land nexus. Nat Commun 15, 6342 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-50594-5

Abstract

Existing studies indicate that future global carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR) efforts could largely be concentrated in Asia. However, there is limited understanding of how individual Asian countries and regions will respond to varying and uncertain scales of future CDR concerning their energy-land-water system. We address this gap by modeling various levels of CDR-reliant pathways under climate change ambitions in Asia. We find that high CDR reliance leads to residual fossil fuel and industry emissions of about 8 Gigatonnes CO2yr−1 (GtCO2yr−1) by 2050, compared to less than 1 GtCO2yr−1 under moderate-to-low CDR reliance. Moreover, expectations of multi-gigatonne CDR could delay the achievement of domestic net zero CO2 emissions for several Asian countries and regions, and lead to higher land allocation and fertilizer demand for bioenergy crop cultivation. Here, we show that Asian countries and regions should prioritize emission reduction strategies while capitalizing on the advantages of carbon removal when it is most viable.

Negative emissions type by country/region.

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) distribution by technology/practice across Asia under various CDR deployment scenarios (a: LOW; b: MODERATE; c: HIGH) by 2050 alongside a no-climate-policy scenario (d: REFERENCE). Negative values for LUC in some countries or regions represent net positive emissions, where deforestation exceeds the afforestation rate. LUC land use change, BECCS bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, DACCS direct air capture and carbon storage, DORCS direct ocean removal and carbon storage, ERW enhanced rock weathering, MtCO2yr−1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year.

Source: Nature Communication