Expert elicitation on agricultural enhanced weathering reveals carbon dioxide removal potential and uncertainties in loss pathways

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03375-5

Authors: Brian Buma, Christiana Dietzen, Doria R. Gordon, Kate Maher, Rebecca B. Neumann, Noah J. Planavsky, Tom Reershemius, Tim Jesper Suhrhoff, Sara Vicca, Bonnie G. Waring, Maya Almaraz, Salvatore Calabrese, Louis A. Derry, M. Granger Morgan, John Higgins, Benjamin Z. Houlton, Yoshiki Kanzaki, Alexandra Klemme, Tyler Kukla, Emily E. Oldfield, Ian M. Power, Christopher R. Pearce, Whendee L. Silver & Shuang Zhang 

12 March 2026

Abstract

Enhanced weathering in agriculture is a potential gigatonne-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) pathway, but its potential remains difficult to constrain. We used a formal expert elicitation process to estimate CDR potential and efficiency, uncertainties, and key data needs for six feedstocks. Expert opinion of global potential varied by feedstock, with estimates averaging 0.2-0.7 Gt CO2e/yr, but with a wide range (from a source to greater than 5 Gt CO2e/yr removal). When focusing on the American Midwest (pH 5.5-6), carbon dioxide removal efficiency, meaning the fraction of potential ultimately realized, ranged from 27-39%. Key uncertainties included feedstock availability, calcite saturation, and deep soil/freshwater emission pathways. There is a need for empirical data in key stages, with potential to leverage liming data where appropriate. Overall, there appears to be strong potential CDR at broad scales. However, continued research is necessary to build confidence when quantifying that potential and actual removals.

Source: Communications Earth & Environment