Carbon capture and storage chains in Brazil: A multi-criteria assessment of the ethanol sector

[Geoengineering News]

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6036686

Authors: Rachel Tamburini Gomes, A. Walter

07 January 2026

Abstract

Achieving negative emissions through Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is crucial for a net-zero future. In Brazil, BECCS has strong potential in the ethanol sector, but cost-efficient deployment requires a multi-criteria assessment of CO2 transport and storage, considering geophysical, economic, social, and political factors. This paper assesses optimal onshore regions for BECCS deployment. Employing a GIS-based hybrid framework, and TOPSIS method for the decision-making process, five scenarios were analyzed. The central and northern regions of São Paulo state emerged as the most suitable for capturing and storing CO2 from ethanol fermentation, enabling up to 40% emissions reduction per year, with a cumulative storage of 290 MtCO2 by 2050. Transport and storage costs range from 22.86 to 56.06 US$2018/tCO2. Notably, minimizing source-sink distance is not always advantageous. Under current carbon credit prices, some BECCS projects could already be viable if shared costs among stakeholders are kept low, while others require subsidies or tax credits for becoming feasible. Expanding data on saline formations is key to unlocking national CCS chains.

Source: SSRN