Considering technology characteristics to project future costs of direct air capture

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https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2542435124000606

Authors

Katrin Sievert, Tobias S. Schmidt, Bjarne Steffen

01 March 2024

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2024.02.005

•Proposes new method to project future costs of novel technologies

•Combines technology-inherent characteristics with component-based experience curves

•Method applied to direct air capture (DAC)

•Net removed costs projected at $226–$835/tCO2 for 1 Gt-CO2/year cumulative capacity

Context & scale

Projecting the future cost of new technologies is a key challenge for research and policymaking related to the low-carbon energy transition. While experience curve-based extrapolations are widely used, they cannot be directly applied to novel technologies where past deployment data are lacking. Here, we introduce a new methodology for technology cost forecasting based on an empirical analysis of technology-inherent characteristics that determine the cost reduction potential. Our results reduce uncertainty about the future cost of novel energy technologies and can inform integrated assessment modeling and climate policymaking. The methodology can be applied to any novel technology with a defined initial component scale, expanding the toolbox for technology cost forecasting.

Summary

Several low-carbon technologies, such as solar photovoltaics or batteries, have experienced massive cost reductions in the recent past. However, non-mature technologies will also be required to meet the Paris climate targets. The cost of novel technologies, like direct air capture (DAC) technologies, remains highly uncertain. Here, we introduce a new method to project future costs of novel technologies by assigning empirically grounded experience rates to technology components based on their similarity to mature technologies in terms of design complexity and customization needs. After an ex-post validation of this method, we apply it to three DAC technologies combined with CO2 transport and storage (DACCS) to provide probabilistic estimates of the cost of CO2 net removed. At 1 Gt-CO2/year cumulative capacity, we project DACCS costs at $341/tCO2 ($226–$544 at 90% confidence) for liquid solvent DACCS, $374/tCO2 ($281–$579) for solid sorbent DACCS, and $371/tCO2 ($230–$835) for CaO ambient weathering DACCS.

Graphical abstract

Source: ScienceDirect