Simulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide removal and its projected impacts on water balance over West Africa

[Geoengineering News]

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42865-026-00135-3

Authors: Uzoma E. K & Adeniyi M. O 

03 July 2026

Abstract

Increase in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide is a driving force for climate change. It is therefore critical to understand the impact of carbon dioxide removal on the water balance in West Africa due to the region’s vulnerability to climate variability and its dependence on water resources for agriculture, livelihoods, and ecosystems. This study used CNRM-ESM1-C1 experiment model output of Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project to analyze the impact on water balance. Water excess and aridity were evaluated by moisture index method. The periods captured slight increase in precipitation in both Senegal and The Gambia. Improved level of wetness is projected in Sahel by the year 2100. Significant reduction in precipitation and surface runoff is projected toward western and southeastern parts of Burkina Faso, northern part of Ghana, Togo, Benin, and southern part of Nigeria. During spring season (March/April/May), surplus water is simulated in periods 2040–2069, 2070–2099 and 2100–2129 at 1915 mm, 1784 mm and 1796 mm, respectively, while during summer season (June/July/August) the surplus is 9344 mm, 9293 mm and 9270.6 mm, respectively for the periods. Moist sub-humid and per-humid climates conditions are predominant during spring and summer seasons, respectively. Coefficients of runoff are within the threshold limit value for urban and agricultural land flooding. However, flooding during summer is projected in forest zones in each of the periods. The predominance of per-humid and moist sub-humid climate conditions during summer and spring seasons has significant implications for environmental sustainability, agricultural productivity, human health and comfort, and economic development.

Source: Springer Nature Link