Overestimated natural biological nitrogen fixation translates to an exaggerated CO2 fertilization effect in Earth system models

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2514628122

Authors: Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Carla R. Reis Ely, Steven S. Perakis, Cory C. Cleveland, Duncan N. L. Menge, et al.

24 November 2025

Significance

Earth system models (ESMs) are used to project climate change, which depends in part on how much carbon plants take up. Nitrogen is an essential limiting nutrient to plant growth and carbon uptake, and it is increasingly incorporated into ESMs. However, ESMs differ greatly in how they simulate terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation (BNF), the main natural nitrogen source to terrestrial ecosystems. We show that most ESMs inaccurately simulate terrestrial BNF, differing from a new global synthesis of terrestrial BNF measurements across natural and agricultural biomes. ESMs significantly underestimate agricultural BNF. ESMs overestimate BNF in forests and grasslands, which are the ecosystems with the greatest carbon uptake. As a result, ESMs could exaggerate plant carbon uptake as atmospheric CO2 concentration rises.

Abstract

CO2 fertilization of the terrestrial biosphere is limited by nitrogen. Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the dominant natural nitrogen source to the terrestrial biosphere and can alleviate nitrogen limitation but is poorly constrained in Earth system models (ESMs). Here, we compare terrestrial BNF from an ensemble of ESMs of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to a new global synthesis of observations across natural and agricultural biomes. We find that compared to observations, ESMs underestimate agricultural BNF but overestimate natural BNF in the present day by over 50%. Natural BNF is overestimated in the most productive ecosystems that contribute most to the terrestrial carbon sink (forests and grasslands). ESMs with different BNF representations yield a range of BNF responses to CO2 enrichment. Some ESMs with phenomenological representations of BNF predict a natural BNF increase in response to a doubling of CO2 that aligns with a meta-analysis of CO2 enrichment experiments (31% increase) but fail to account for the substantial carbon cost of BNF. In contrast, ESMs with mechanistic representations of BNF account for its carbon cost as well as its regulation by nitrogen limitation but overestimate the BNF response to a doubling of CO2 (135% increase). Overall, all current BNF representations in ESMs fall short of fully capturing its response to rising atmospheric CO2. Finally, we find a positive correlation between modeled present-day natural BNF and the CO2 fertilization effect across ESMs, suggesting that overestimated natural BNF translates to an exaggerated CO2 fertilization effect of approximately 11% in ESMs.

Source: PNAS