A weak third seat bid

[Mark LaCroix]

Hello all,

 

          A while back I talked about a 3C bid in third seat after 2 passes.

 

          Bridge is a game of probabilities.  The odds of this being a good bid are slim.  Its certainly not destined to make the contract.  Why would we do this bid?

 

          In the attachment are 16 boards where the 3C bid is made.  Let’s go over them

 

1. NS can make 6 tricks in clubs for -3X = 500MP.  EW has game in hearts and diamonds for a better score 600, 650.
2. NS can again only make 6 tricks for 500MP EW, however the interference may even stop them from finding their slam.  So even if the now find game you’ve done your damage and probably will get a great board.
3. NS can make 7 tricks.  Doubled down is 300, though the HR shows EW can’t make game so this one is a loss providing EW double.  This looks likely.
4. NS -1 for 100 white EW can make game.  So far this is 3 boards to 1 success rate.
5. Bad juju if East doubles and west thinks to leave it in.  West will pull it, likely bidding hearts over their spades.  Guess what good board for NS as a spade contract makes the extra trick.  East should be happy to bid 3S over partners 3H bid.
6. This one isn’t going to end well for you either.  Its not likely a double will be left in but you sure have made it difficult for them to find their only successful game contract.
7. This one can be bad juju as well.  However its unlikely West would leave a X in.  Any contract they bid would now result in negative score being good for you.  Left to their own devices, without the interference they would be in a successful 2H or 2D contract.
8. This one looks positive as well.  You are keeping them out of a 3NY contract, possibly putting them in 5D instead, resulting in a better score.
9. If it keeps them out of their slam.  Success  -5 for 1100 will be a top score
10. You might make them get in trouble with this one.  Its likely they will find their game contract.  I think west will have to bid after east’s X
11. This hand doesn’t fit the criteria.  North may open this hand and well that doesn’t fit our criteria.
12. Again stopping them from finding their grand slam, maybe.
13. This one is a win anyway you look at it
14. Looks like no matter what they will find their 4 heart contract.  If you’ve kept them out of it.  Success
15. Bidding here will push them up enough to go down 1.  I’m on the fence if west will bid or pass here.
16. -3 should be good and it may put them in trouble if west decides to bid.

 

 

So out of 16 boards we have shown there is a pretty high success rate with this pre-emptive bid from south.  If you look at the auctions and understand that if North and west have passed, then at the most NS can have a maximum of 15 HCP  Leaving EW to have 25+  Anytime you take them out of their game / slam you should be doing well.  Even if they let you play -3 doubled it’s a better score than allowing them to find their game.  I read that the odds are 66% in favour of this bid.  I wonder though if its even higher than that from the data I’ve submitted here.

 

bridge21.u2candoit.club

613 316 5865

 

		Mark LaCroix
		Local Tournament Director
		mark.l...@acbl.org Mobile: 613-316-5865
		American Contract Bridge League 6575 Windchase Blvd., Horn Lake MS 38637