'Very Active' Hurricane Season Predicted
Pastor Dale Morgan
Apr 3, 1:03 PM EDT
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'Very Active' Hurricane Season Predicted*
By DAN ELLIOTT
Associated Press Writer
DENVER (AP) -- The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very
active," with nine hurricanes and a good chance that at least one major
hurricane will hit the U.S. coast, a top researcher said Tuesday.
Forecaster William Gray said he expects 17 named storms in all this
year, five of them major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or
greater. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the
U.S. coast this year: 74 percent, compared with the average of 52
percent over the past century, he said.
Last year, Gray's forecast and government forecasts were higher than
what the Atlantic hurricane season produced.
There were 10 named Atlantic storms in 2006 and five hurricanes, two of
them major, in what was considered a "near normal" season. None of those
hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast - only the 11th time that has
occurred since 1945. The National Hurricane Center in Miami originally
reported nine storms, but upgraded one storm after a postseason review.
Gray's research team at Colorado State University said an unexpected
late El Nino contributed to the calmer season last year. El Nino - a
warming in the Pacific Ocean - has far-reaching effects that include
changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the
formation of hurricanes there.
A weak to moderate El Nino occurred in December and January but
dissipated rapidly, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team.
"Conditions this year are likely to be more conducive to hurricanes,"
Klotzbach said Tuesday. In the absence of El Nino, "winds aren't tearing
the storm systems apart."
The team's forecasts are based on global oceanic and atmospheric conditions.
Klotzbach advised coastal residents along the Atlantic and Gulf of
Mexico to have hurricane plans and preparedness kits in place, but he
added, "You can't let the possibility of a hurricane coming ruin your
summer."
The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30,
averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per
year.
The devastating 2005 season set a record with 28 named storms, 15 of
them hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes hit the U.S. coast, the worst
among them Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and leveled parts of
the Gulf Coast region.
Gray has spent more than 40 years in tropical weather research. He heads
the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State.
Federal government forecasters plan to release their prediction in late May.
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On the Net:
CSU forecast: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/
National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/