Peru's alarming Global Warming truth
Pastor Dale Morgan
*Peru's alarming Global Warming truth*
By James Painter
In Peru
Oscar-winning Al Gore chose to call his film about global warming An
Inconvenient Truth. But for Peru it is more like an alarming reality.
Government officials, water experts and environmentalists agree the
rapid melting of the spectacular Andean glaciers featured in the film is
threatening the long-term economic and human development of what is
South America's most "water-stressed" country.
The Cordillera Blanca provides drinking water and electricity
"Global warming for us is not just about the environment," warns Julio
Garcia of Peru's National Council on the Environment, Conam.
"It's more about how on earth we can develop Peru in a sustainable way
over the coming years."
Peru's water problem lies in part in the peculiar geography of the country.
Most of the Pacific coast would be desert if it were not for the water
flowing down from the Andes.
Seventy per cent of the population live along the coast, where less than
2% of the country's water resources are found.
In contrast, the Atlantic side of the Andes has 98% of the water and
about a quarter of the population.
"Much of our water supply is on the wrong side of the wall," says Mr Garcia.
Glacial melt
Peru has the largest number of tropical glaciers in the world. These
water towers are crucial for slowly releasing water, particularly in the
dry season. And Peru desperately needs the water all year round.
Apart from the need for drinking water, 80% of the country's power has
traditionally come from hydro-electricity. And, the current boom sectors
of the economy - agro-exports and mining - also absorb huge volumes of
water.
Lima already has a large deficit between supply and demand and official
projections say it's going to get a lot larger in the future-Juan Carlos
Barandiaran
The latest figures on glacial melt are alarming.
Estimates by a team of Peruvian and international scientists say that
Peru and Bolivia, which together account for more than 90% of the
world's tropical glaciers, have lost about a third of the surface area
of their glaciers between the 1970s and 2006.
A lot of attention has been paid to the range known as Cordillera
Blanca, home to Peru's largest mountain, Huascaran, at 6,768 metres
(22,200ft).
Water coming down from the range feeds an array of economic activities
in the Rio Santa valley below it.
This includes a hydro-electric plant providing 5% of Peru's electricity,
drinking water for two cities, and commercial and small-scale agriculture.
"Water from glaciers is absolutely critical for the valley in the six or
seven months of the dry season," says Gabriela Rosas, a researcher at
the national weather institute, Senamhi.
Glacial melt is calculated to provide 10 to 20% of the total annual
water run-off in the valley, but it can reach 40% in the dry season.
Ms Rosas is part of a team modelling future water availability in Peru.
The models, based on moderate rises in temperature, predict annual water
availability will increase slightly as more of the glaciers melt, but
that there will be a dramatic decline after 2050 and possibly as early
as 2030.
Seasonal variations will become more intense, with less water available
in the dry season.
Low reserves
Lima, Peru's capital, is a particular worry.
It is built on a desert, supports a population of more than eight
million, and receives hardly any rainfall.
The city gets most of its water from the Rio Rimac and two other rivers
with sources high up in the Andes. The rivers are partly fed by glacial
melt, although less than the Rio Santa valley.
"Lima already has a large deficit between supply and demand and official
projections say it's going to get a lot larger in the future," says Juan
Carlos Barandiaran, former head of projects for the municipal water
company, Sedapal.
Demand is set to increase as the city absorbs thousands of new arrivals
every year.
"We must have more reserves," says Mr Barandiaran.
The last major drought in 2004 pushed the city's water supplies to the
limit. "If we had droughts two years running our current reserves would
not support it," he says.
President Alan Garcia's government wants to give water connections to
nearly a million more people in Lima, but experts say this will increase
demand even more.
The project is known as "Agua para todos" or "Water for all". But, says
Sedapal's former president, Carlos Silvestri: "It will be very little
water for all."
'Vulnerable'
For several years, Mr Silvestri and other experts have been urging
successive governments to build a range of multi-million-dollar
infrastructure works, including a second tunnel through the Andes, in
order to build up their reserves.
We really are on the edge of an abyss-Carlos Silvestri
Such works have become even more urgent with the prospect of reduced
water in the dry season. They could capture and store more water during
the wet season.
"We are only city in South America with so few reserves - less than a
year's supply. We are very vulnerable," says Mr Silvestri.
He also worries about the increased frequency and intensity of droughts
due to El Nino, and Lima's current reliance on just one 60-km (37-mile)
tunnel fetching water from the other side of the Andes. And now there's
glacial melt.
"We really are on the edge of an abyss," he warns.
Scientists say it is hard to predict in how many years the effect of
glacial melt will really bite. But it is remarkable how many experts in
Peru take seriously the prediction that the time will come this century
when a barrel of water will cost more than a barrel of oil.